Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Man With Beard]

10 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

 

A more sedate morning on the models so far. The GFS op has edged the heat down a little over the past couple of days - probably just the Tuesday which will exceed the 30C mark now (so still very hot), and little interest in a split trough so a more straightforward breakdown on the Wednesday. GEFS generally supportive of this, except that a number of runs still get the 20C 850 line to the UK at some point. 

[mb018538]

Looking increasingly like this heat blast is going to be a blink and you'll miss it affair. Shame really, a few days ago it looked like a 2/3 day job with some big heat, now it appears it'll just be Tuesday where we might nick a 30c, then back to the usual summer theme afterwards. Thanks summer 2016, it's been......well put it this way, we won't be looking back on it kindly in 20 years time.

[coldcomfort]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Morning campers - a brief look at this morning's GFS starting with the weekend.

Midday Saturday sees the UK in a cool NW airstream with a few showers in the north otherwise mainly dry. But HP is nudging in from the SW and 24 hours later a high cell is centred over the Irish Sea so a dry cool day for all. At  the same time, in this quite mobile pattern, a frontal system is girding it's loins out west.

From this point the HP moves east, then north, accompanied by a similar movement from the front ( just east) on which small perturbations form, so that by 18z on Tuesday the front lies just to the west of the UK. This scenario briefly introduces some WAA from the south so that the southern part of England will, again briefly, be quite warm with temps around the 28C mark.

The front continues the movement east bringing thundery outbreaks and possibly some substantial down pours to some areas over Tuesday/Weds. Eventually this system swings on it's axis and ends up over N. Germany as it slips under the high pressure which is now to the NE with once again the HP edging in from the south west.

Overall the next seven days are quite dry with the only substantial rainfall in NW Scotland. This is of course not taking into account possible localised rainfall from convective activity next week.

 

Whilst the forecast for the weekend is heading in the direction I've been suggesting for a few days, I'm not sure I'd describe both days as universally cool Knocker, especially across the southern third of the country. Here average to rather warm look a more accurate assessment to me based on the latest outputs, average to rather cool would then cover the middle third, with genuinely cool conditions only prevalent across much of Scotland and N Ireland.

Where we are this morning however is a long, long way from for very warm hor d'ouevre weekend that was set to precede a significant Spanish plume for early to mid week, indeed everything now looks very disappointing from a heat perspective, pretty much as one or two suggested as long as 3 or 4 days ago.

Hopefully IF this all pans out close to current projections another lesson about chasing eye candy charts a week hence will be learnt, but some how I doubt it!  

Edited August 11, 2016 by coldcomfort

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 00z shows high pressure centred over the uk by next monday bringing warm and settled weather with plenty of sunshine and tuesday shows the high drifting further east enabling the winds to become sly / sely and draw much warmer and more humid air up across the uk with lots of very warm hazy sunshine but with a risk of isolated storms breaking out later but then following a very warm sultry night, wednesday is the break down day with a much higher chance of thunderstorms.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 00z manages to squeeze out the hottest day on wednesday before the real change to unsettled later next week but otherwise the evolution at the start of next week is as per the ukmo.

[knocker]

The ecm not dissimilar to the GFS except it does delay the arrival of the front next week a little which may possible allow temps around 30C in east Anglia by 18z Weds. before the thundery wet weather arrives. The evolution after that for another time.

I'm off to check on Sidney

 

[Frosty.]

I agree with coldcomfort, I'm not seeing anything cool for the south / southeast for the rest of this week...23c today, 25c on Friday..24c on saturday & sunday then 26c on mon, 29/30c on tues then 27c next wed.. not bad!

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Morning campers - a brief look at this morning's GFS starting with the weekend.

Midday Saturday sees the UK in a cool NW airstream with a few showers in the north otherwise mainly dry. But HP is nudging in from the SW and 24 hours later a high cell is centred over the Irish Sea so a dry cool day for all. 

This really does depend on ones opinion of cool. I was sitting outside on Hayling Island yesterday in 21C, and to me it was comfortable when cloudy, and roasting when sunny! I would expect midland areas to experience these type of conditions at the weekend, and south of Bristol/Oxford/The Wash I'd expect those GFS charts to translate to 25C or 26C in places, maybe cool to some but I doubt cool to most.

ECM 00Z ups the heat a little for next week compared with its 12Z yesterday. 16C uppers comfortably getting over the country by the end of Tuesday, up to 18C overnight and perhaps some warm air hanging on long enough for a warm Wednesday in the east. Will be interesting to see how thundery potential develops

[Gordon Webb]

5 minutes ago, Karl. said:

I agree with coldcomfort, I'm not seeing anything cool for the south / southeast for the rest of this week...23c today, 25c on Friday..24c on saturday & sunday then 26c on mon, 29/30c on tues then 27c next wed.. not bad!

Yep not bad for those 10-20% but for the rest and especially for people in the North good weather in the S/SE will bring them little cheer

Edited August 11, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[Frosty.]

Just now, Gordon Webb said:

Yep not bad for those 10% but for the rest and especially the North good weather in the S/SE will bring them little cheer

I don't agree Gordon, it looks warm / very warm nationwide through the first half of next week, it's just this weekend that favours the far south.

[knocker]

13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This really does depend on ones opinion of cool. I was sitting outside on Hayling Island yesterday in 21C, and to me it was comfortable when cloudy, and roasting when sunny! I would expect midland areas to experience these type of conditions at the weekend, and south of Bristol/Oxford/The Wash I'd expect those GFS charts to translate to 25C or 26C in places, maybe cool to some but I doubt cool to most.

ECM 00Z ups the heat a little for next week compared with its 12Z yesterday. 16C uppers comfortably getting over the country by the end of Tuesday, up to 18C overnight and perhaps some warm air hanging on long enough for a warm Wednesday in the east. Will be interesting to see how thundery potential develops

A very cool assessment MWB.

Edited August 11, 2016 by knocker

[cheese]

20 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This really does depend on ones opinion of cool. I was sitting outside on Hayling Island yesterday in 21C, and to me it was comfortable when cloudy, and roasting when sunny! I would expect midland areas to experience these type of conditions at the weekend, and south of Bristol/Oxford/The Wash I'd expect those GFS charts to translate to 25C or 26C in places, maybe cool to some but I doubt cool to most.

ECM 00Z ups the heat a little for next week compared with its 12Z yesterday. 16C uppers comfortably getting over the country by the end of Tuesday, up to 18C overnight and perhaps some warm air hanging on long enough for a warm Wednesday in the east. Will be interesting to see how thundery potential develops

Average high in August here is 21C. At the moment the BBC only have Mon-Wed exceeding 20C, so most days over the next 10 days will actually be below average here. It's all very disappointing.

Does look lovely for the South though. 

[Summer Sun]

GFS's take on things

Sunday gets to the upper 20's along the south coast

Monday the highest temps are in the low 20's

By Tuesday the heat starts to build with the high 20's the peak maybe just managing 30c in shelter from the wind

By Wednesday it's all over with temps peaking in the low 20's

So just like month the peak of the heat looks to be a Tuesday

Edited August 11, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Gordon Webb]

29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS's take on things

Sunday gets to the upper 20's along the south coast

Monday the highest temps are in the low 20's

By Tuesday the heat starts to build with the high 20's the peak maybe just managing 30c in shelter from the wind

By Wednesday it's all over with temps peaking in the low 20's

So just like month the peak of the heat looks to be a Tuesday

looking at the charts the highest temps for Tuesday mostly reserved for the south coast or just inland mainly 23-25 for most England and Wales and low 20's for Scotland a far cry from the 33-35 just touted 3 days ago and there's still 4 days to go

Edited August 11, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[stodge]

Morning all

Post the non-Plume, where are the models taking us further down next week ?

Let's start with T+216 on the GFS 00Z OP:

A bit of a dog's breakfast so to speak but with the Atlantic moribund and signs of a renewed build of pressure from the SW, albeit taking a more Northerly track than before, it should be reasonable for most albeit with a lot of cloud I suspect.

The Mean at the same time shows the residue of heights to the North East but nothing too exciting:

ECM 00Z at the same time:

Very different evolution though less so for the south with HP never far away but the heights over Scandinavia are well and truly gone and instead we have a stiff westerly regime affecting the north of Britain with rain or showers and cooler temperatures. The trend is for pressure to build from the south, however, so improving for some at least.

GEM 00Z at the same time:

Something very different again. Not bad for the bulk of the British Idles under the influence of the European HP but the LP in the SW Approaches is coming our way and it all gets a bit ugly after that.

I think the message from this morning is the lack of clarity. Overall, and extremely broad brush, I'd say probably not too bad for the south and probably not so good further north. You can't go too far wrong with that but for a forecast for the latter part of next week, that's all I have for now.

More runs would be useful methinks...

[Gordon Webb]

22 minutes ago, stodge said:

I think the message from this morning is the lack of clarity. Overall, and extremely broad brush, I'd say probably not too bad for the south and probably not so good further north. You can't go too far wrong with that but for a forecast for the latter part of next week, that's all I have for now

that seems to sum up this summer in a nutshell

[snowprincesspboro]

probably gonna get shot at posting in here, but was wondering what the model trends were looking like for the back end of next week, friday is the start of our european road trip, if its looking hot then its the convertible being booked on the tunnel, cooler and stormy well go in the qashqai, please help me before my post gets removed, weatherwise its only u guys i trust lol. soo hoping for a massive european storm for my journey, travelling through the night so will be spectacular if only the timing is right 

[coldcomfort]

06 already looking less plumey still at 120hrs, with the breakdown from the west also looking a tad more progressive. At this rate even the E/SE of England will be seeing a blink and you'll miss it event....  Looking at Tues cloud and potential showers I think even a 30c somewhere is starting to look a bit of a stretch, all in all very disappointing imo.

Edited August 11, 2016 by coldcomfort

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows a cool weekend away from the far south, mainly dry and bright with just a few showers dotted around. Early next week becomes generally warmer from the south with more widespread sunshine on Monday. Tuesday is the peak of the warm spell with temps into the mid to upper 20's c and increasingly humid, again with plenty of sunshine but isolated thunderstorms later in the day, tues night shows increasing thunderstorm risk which rumbles into midweek but it's turning cooler and fresher from the west. Following a more unsettled blip it becomes more settled and warmer as high pressure builds in..spock is intrigued by low res

[knocker]

After a brief injection of WAA on Tuesday the EPS anomaly has the Atlantic trough joining forces with the cut off upper low over the Baltic States resulting in a veering upper flow and cooler temps post Wednesday.

Edited August 11, 2016 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

Looking at the GEFS 06Z clustering, the message is

- Hot Tuesday (maybe not quite as hot as previously forecasted in the days before but still will feel hot in any sun), still a couple of runs getting the 20C 850 line over us so 90F remains a possibility, though might just fall short.

- Wednesday still in the balance, depending on the northward progress of the Atlantic front (v. warm/sunny ahead, wet in the middle, sunny but a bit cooler behind)

- By the weekend, the signal gets lost completely for the UK. We have heights in N Scandinavia and heights of course in S Europe and the Azores. Some runs join them up, leaving us dry but temperatures varying massively depending on the link-up. Other runs push a trough through the gap, leaving us cool, cloudy and damp.

Looking at the whole set, I personally favour low pressure escaping east Thursday/Friday and pressure building again from both the south and the north - leaving us in a dry, light NEly which would make the SW the warmest spot, possibly mid-20s if that happened.

At least that permanent trough to the north might be obliterated this week!

[Frosty.]

I've been very disappointed with the GEFS because last week it was so promising, showing Azores / scandi high domination day after day, 4 times a day and then it shifted away from that, it led me up the garden path I admit. Next week still looks warm though, especially the first half with tuesday the stand out day. Thereafter it looks average but with another attempt at the Azores high building in but apart from that it looks like this summer will fizzle out with a whimper.

Edited August 11, 2016 by Karl.

[Man With Beard]

33 minutes ago, Karl. said:

I've been very disappointed with the GEFS because last week it was so promising, showing Azores / scandi high domination

Fair enough Karl. It seems this summer and last the GFS slightly overdoes the northwards push of heights from Azores

[Snow Shoes]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking at the GEFS 06Z clustering, the message is

- Hot Tuesday (maybe not quite as hot as previously forecasted in the days before but still will feel hot in any sun), still a couple of runs getting the 20C 850 line over us so 90F remains a possibility, though might just fall short.

- Wednesday still in the balance, depending on the northward progress of the Atlantic front (v. warm/sunny ahead, wet in the middle, sunny but a bit cooler behind)

- By the weekend, the signal gets lost completely for the UK. We have heights in N Scandinavia and heights of course in S Europe and the Azores. Some runs join them up, leaving us dry but temperatures varying massively depending on the link-up. Other runs push a trough through the gap, leaving us cool, cloudy and damp.

Looking at the whole set, I personally favour low pressure escaping east Thursday/Friday and pressure building again from both the south and the north - leaving us in a dry, light NEly which would make the SW the warmest spot, possibly mid-20s if that happened.

At least that permanent trough to the north might be obliterated this week!

The met office are now predicting temperatures of 26c for the south-east on Tuesday (which is a downgrade on the temperature they were predicting last night) so at this stage la la land looks more in danger of being clipped by 2OC 850 isotherm than the south-east

Edited August 11, 2016 by Snow Shoes

[Man With Beard]

4 hours ago, snowprincesspboro said:

probably gonna get shot at posting in here, but was wondering what the model trends were looking like for the back end of next week, friday is the start of our european road trip, if its looking hot then its the convertible being booked on the tunnel, cooler and stormy well go in the qashqai, please help me before my post gets removed, weatherwise its only u guys i trust lol. soo hoping for a massive european storm for my journey, travelling through the night so will be spectacular if only the timing is right 

Snow princess - just saw your post, sorry I'm going to be straight up I really don't have a clue what the weather will be like next weekend, I feel that the UK is stuck between two areas of settled weather and it's a lottery right now whether we will join in or not! I doubt it will be hot though.

Perhaps if you give details of your journey some others might chip in!