Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Summer Sun]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS heating up for a time mid month

 

ECM for the same day

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows a scorcher early in week 2 with temps potentially into the 90's F for the second time this summer and what looks like a very thundery breakdown..perhaps that low out west could stall for longer and bring a mega plume!...anyway it's looking increasingly summery by next weekend into the following week, whether we get a uk based anticyclone or another plume..I feel the best is yet to come during the second half of August.

Edited August 7, 2016 by Karl.

[Man With Beard]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM for the same day

An awful lot of hot runs today - still a bit too far out to call, but GFS would give 3/4 days at 30C plus, and ECM may reach 35C.

Can anyone recall a mid-August heatwave with temps like those? I can't in the last 30 years. 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

An awful lot of hot runs today - still a bit too far out to call, but GFS would give 3/4 days at 30C plus, and ECM may reach 35C.

Can anyone recall a mid-August heatwave with temps like those? I can't in the last 30 years. 

August 1995 was hot, not sure about 35c but it was a very warm / hot generally anticyclonic month..with drought conditions too.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All!  Stark differences between ecm and gfs tonight at T+168. High pressure dominated gfs , ecm  has nothing to do with that outlook!

[Captain Shortwave]

Well a couple of days have passed and mid-month does offer the opportunity for the 30C mark to be breached, most likely to be the start of next week, so around day 8/9 as high pressure builds to the east of the UK with a broad Atlantic trough developing allowing a southerly feed to develop.

GFS/GEM/ECM at day 8

      

The GEM seems the most pessimistic in terms of a much flatter pattern but even this offers some very warm conditions for the south.

Anyways regarding the build of pressure at the end of this week, lets see whether we are getting a more consistent picture between the models.

So the charts for Friday.

      

The GFS the most anticyclonic, the Euros flatter, at this point the end of the coming week looks similar to this weekend, so warm/very warm in the south but more changeable and cooler in the north as a strong Atlantic jet prevents drier and warmer air from pushing far enough north to effect the whole of the UK. 

So a lot of good signs, but perhaps a I feel a little wary of the more bullish hot and settled charts given recent events as the flatter solutions have tended to be nearer the mark. So whilst southern areas look good, we need to hope that we finally get some decent amplification of the Azores ridge across the UK/Europe to allow a more widespread settled spell to develop.

Anyway, as someone mentioned the temperatures on the ECM, well the set up there would probably get us close to the temperature recorded on the 1st of August 2013, so low to mid thirties is certainly possible if we can develop a plume as the Euro ridge develops. All just for fun at the moment though.

Edited August 7, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean mirrors the operational with a hot, humid and thundery spell during the first half of week 2 and before that it looks increasingly warm and settled from friday and throughout next weekend. I hope for a lengthy summery spell, as I'm sure do most of us on here..we shall see. I've seen plenty of evidence from the models today that our second spanish plume of the summer is on the way in a little over a weeks time.

[cruelwx]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All!  Stark differences between ecm and gfs tonight at T+168. High pressure dominated gfs , ecm  has nothing to do with that outlook!

Not that different is it, considering it's the future? 

[joggs]

3 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

An awful lot of hot runs today - still a bit too far out to call, but GFS would give 3/4 days at 30C plus, and ECM may reach 35C.

Can anyone recall a mid-August heatwave with temps like those? I can't in the last 30 years. 

1990?

But be aware the meto updates.They're awesome most of the time,outdoing the models we view.

Edited August 7, 2016 by joggs

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

gfs 18z switches on the heatwave from next weekend until Wednesday, temps hovering in the low 30s for many.  Prepare for some very hot and muggy night times.

[TomDav]

GFS 18z very warm / hot run, hopefully the ECM jumps onboard soon

 

[Weather-history]

10 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

An awful lot of hot runs today - still a bit too far out to call, but GFS would give 3/4 days at 30C plus, and ECM may reach 35C.

Can anyone recall a mid-August heatwave with temps like those? I can't in the last 30 years. 

Mid August 1995 and 1996 had maxima reaching 30C

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Mid August 1995 and 1996 had maxima reaching 30C

Reached 31C on 21st and 22nd of August 1995 in Leeds. 

[mb018538]

GFS is a bit more progressive today, gradually sweeping the heat away by Tuesday for many, and Wednesday in the far south. That said, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday look especially warm, with 30c possible.

[coldcomfort]

7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

GFS is a bit more progressive today, gradually sweeping the heat away by Tuesday for many, and Wednesday in the far south. That said, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday look especially warm, with 30c possible.

I'm still concerned about the ECM - GFS has definitely drifted towards in it in the longer term, having completely dropped it's HP dominated outlook and now it looking increasingly likely that much cooler air will push a long way south on Saturday according to the 00 ECM. Not good imo.

[Sky Full]

11 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

An awful lot of hot runs today - still a bit too far out to call, but GFS would give 3/4 days at 30C plus, and ECM may reach 35C.

Can anyone recall a mid-August heatwave with temps like those? I can't in the last 30 years. 

August 10th 2003 recorded hottest ever temperatures in many places - one or two above 38 C.   I don't think the models are showing quite this level of heat but mid-30s could be possible if the low stalls to our west long enough.

Edited August 8, 2016 by Sky Full
Max temp quoted adjusted! Insert chart.

[cheese]

28 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

I'm still concerned about the ECM - GFS has definitely drifted towards in it in the longer term, having completely dropped it's HP dominated outlook and now it looking increasingly likely that much cooler air will push a long way south on Saturday according to the 00 ECM. Not good imo.

Funny thing is, if it's heat you're after I'd say the ECM is better this morning than the GFS. 

Still, we've been here before. Going by the doom and gloom that's been posted throughout this thread I was certain July would be a stinker of a month but in reality it turned out fine. Things change quickly. This is all several days away - the final solution is far from being found.

Edited August 8, 2016 by cheese

[coldcomfort]

12 minutes ago, cheese said:

Funny thing is, if it's heat you're after I'd say the ECM is better this morning than the GFS. 

Still, we've been here before. Going by the doom and gloom that's been posted throughout this thread I was certain July would be a stinker of a month but in reality it turned out fine. Things change quickly. This is all several days away - the final solution is far from being found.

Eventually yes, but the weekend does not look particularly warm and there is clearly a weak frontal zone lying east-west across the middle of the UK at 00 Sun (144hrs). Therefore IF correct we are now looking at this time next week before any sort of warm up even begins, so whilst things remain at that kind of range it's wise not to get over excited imo. 

 

Edited August 8, 2016 by coldcomfort

[mb018538]

ECM brings the 20c isotherm into play by the end of the run. Can't say that 2003 and the magic 100F would be threatened if it came to pass, but something around 35c would probably be on the cards! We have a bit of variety on this morning runs though, so nearer the time I guess we will find out how much the low out west acts as a heat pump, or if it steamrollers through and just turns it more unsettled like GFS.

[tempestwatch]

30 minutes ago, cheese said:

Funny thing is, if it's heat you're after I'd say the ECM is better this morning than the GFS. 

Still, we've been here before. Going by the doom and gloom that's been posted throughout this thread I was certain July would be a stinker of a month but in reality it turned out fine. Things change quickly. This is all several days away - the final solution is far from being found.

Some sun and a little warmth would be nice, July has been awful in Scotland. This nastly low passing us now will have a 3degree sting in its tale for us. Very autuminal this morning.

 

[Summer Sun]

A very hot end to ECM this morning

[Frosty.]

The Gem 00z looks plumy early next week...upgrade!

Edited August 8, 2016 by Karl.

[coldcomfort]

I think some sort of plume early next week looks fairly inevitable now, but we are again looking a 1 day event in Scotland/N Ireland and a 2-3 day event for the bulk of England and Wales. Thereafter at least according to GFS the longer term looks distinctly uninspiring, so given the choice between what the models now appear to be settling on or the less intense but much more protracted fine spells flagged late last week, I defiantly chose the latter.  Yes it will be nice to see another blast of heat, but that is currently all it looks to be and it's longevity as even will be entirely dependent on your location.

Edited August 8, 2016 by coldcomfort

[Frosty.]

No downgrade on the GEFS 00z mean, still mid to upper 20's c for most of the s / e later next week and high pressure  builds in later this week with temperatures on the rise, a heatwave during the first half of next week as our high drifts east into scandinavia with continental heat pumping north across the uk with temps into the 80's / 90's F and an increasing chance of thunderstorms..nothing to moan about if you love summery weather. We have good model support for a hot spell early next week!

[summer blizzard]

What a lovely GFS run post day 8, it attempts not to melt me.