Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ens mean shows an improving outlook beyond the cooler NWly blip for a time next week as a nice ridge of high pressure builds in. I was a bit harsh with my earlier comments regarding the Ecm 12z operational run which shows a very decent outlook further south and if anything, the mean looks better. Nice post by John, sounds like we may have more to be encouraged about for the last three weeks of this meteorological summer..fingers crossed.

Edited August 5, 2016 by Karl.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning continues to advertise some very nice dry/warm/settled conditions into the Month, As High Pressure pushes up over the UK. This could very well lead to a lengthy settled spell, Which is something we have lacked so far this Summer.. 

Edited August 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Matthew.]

Beat me to it PM The 0z GFS has come in storming with the goods! Look at these Thursday onwards:

[The PIT]

Looking pleasant for a while for the UK bat the hiccup this weekend for Scotland hints of possibly unpleasant hot weather in FI land hopefully temps will stay as they are now which is just right.

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 00z looks promising later next week as high pressure builds in across the south, even the Gem 00z ends on a high note.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z shows an increasingly settled and warmer spell after the cooler and fresher blip during the first half of next week, it becomes very warm or hot and more humid towards the end of the run with a risk of thundery weather.

Edited August 6, 2016 by Karl.

[Man With Beard]

Hmmm ... UKMO/ECM very similar this morning at T144, which usually makes me lean towards them. High Pressure in control at that time but not as powerfully as on GFS. If UKMO/ECM are right, a decent weekend and warming up nicely - but risk of becoming less settled again into the following week (D9/D10). GFS on the other hand stays settled almost throughout, yet again

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run is a game changer with the pattern change most of us crave and the good news is the GEFS 00z mean is too, this would bring a very summery spell to all parts of the uk with settled and warm / very warm weather...Fingers crossed.

[Lincs Observation]

Morning all

Do you think that its almost like the seasons are running six weeks later than we are expecting, Over the past 24-36 months you feel like each season has shifted, i would say that our high summer starts now and will change to autumn in November and so on. what your thoughts?

 

LO

[Man With Beard]

33 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:

Morning all

Do you think that its almost like the seasons are running six weeks later than we are expecting, Over the past 24-36 months you feel like each season has shifted, i would say that our high summer starts now and will change to autumn in November and so on. what your thoughts?

 

LO

Hi! It has seemed like that recently, but I imagine there is no proven scientific theory!

I would repost your question in the Summer 2016 or Autumn 2016 thread - they discuss this all the time in there.

Back to the models, ECM ensembles are in and the mean looks pretty settled from T120 out to T240, and increasing warm too after a cool start - yes, heights not incredibly strong by the end but the main trough is far enough away that only NW Scotland needs to look over its shoulders from time to time.

Edited August 6, 2016 by Man With Beard

[coldcomfort]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Hmmm ... UKMO/ECM very similar this morning at T144, which usually makes me lean towards them. High Pressure in control at that time but not as powerfully as on GFS. If UKMO/ECM are right, a decent weekend and warming up nicely - but risk of becoming less settled again into the following week (D9/D10). GFS on the other hand stays settled almost throughout, yet again

Indeed......what have we got to do to get decent agreement post 144hrs from the big two? So often recently when ECM has gone for fine, warm summery conditions longer term and GFS hasn't we ended up seeing GFS proven right, but now the shoe is very much on the other foot I fear the reverse will happen. As has been said before in here, if things can go wrong for the UK they generally will.

[Captain Shortwave]

Looking at the models this morning we seem to have two options on the table,

The first is represented nicely with a blend of ECM/UKMO/GEM and the respective ensembles for those suites where we see a similar ridge to what we a re seeing now with very warm conditions developing in the south with the north more changeable, but with week 2 offering a renewed build of pressure over Europe and more encouragingly we see a deeper Atlantic trough develop which could offer something much warmer or even hot.

      

 

The second option is offered by the GFS and its ensemble suite where the Azores ridge successfully extends across the UK in one attempt and brings settled and very warm conditions to most.

      

I won't agree with the Pit in terms of conditions being too hot on the GFS op as the 850s never get too high (Generally 8-12C) which would be mid to high twenties so nothing overly excessive, on the other hand something akin to the ECM op would offer temperatures in the low 30s as we import hotter air from the south aided by the Atlantic trough digging south and allowing heat from Spain/North Africa to push northwards across France and southern England.

There is certainly scope for positivity at the moment, given how this summer has gone I do admit that I think the ECM solution looks reasonable with unsettled weather at times, especially in the north, but with some lengthier drier and warmer spells at times and the south seeing some very nice conditions for a good portion of the mid range. That said the GFS could be right and we could see a lengthy UK-wide settled spell.

 

[Nouska]

Thanks @Captain Shortwave

Looking at the projected MJO from the models you mention, we can see where the differences are being initiated.

ECM stays in phase 5 while GFS goes for amplification into phase 6. Below the phase composites for August and the Z500 anomalies at T+240 hours.

     

     

Both anomaly charts reflect well what they are doing with the tropical forcing - just need to wait a day or two for signal agreement but either way, it looks like a reasonable way to see August out.

[Gordon Webb]

20 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Looking at the models this morning we seem to have two options on the table,

The first is represented nicely with a blend of ECM/UKMO/GEM and the respective ensembles for those suites where we see a similar ridge to what we a re seeing now with very warm conditions developing in the south with the north more changeable, but with week 2 offering a renewed build of pressure over Europe and more encouragingly we see a deeper Atlantic trough develop which could offer something much warmer or even hot.

      

 

The second option is offered by the GFS and its ensemble suite where the Azores ridge successfully extends across the UK in one attempt and brings settled and very warm conditions to most.

      

I won't agree with the Pit in terms of conditions being too hot on the GFS op as the 850s never get too high (Generally 8-12C) which would be mid to high twenties so nothing overly excessive, on the other hand something akin to the ECM op would offer temperatures in the low 30s as we import hotter air from the south aided by the Atlantic trough digging south and allowing heat from Spain/North Africa to push northwards across France and southern England.

There is certainly scope for positivity at the moment, given how this summer has gone I do admit that I think the ECM solution looks reasonable with unsettled weather at times, especially in the north, but with some lengthier drier and warmer spells at times and the south seeing some very nice conditions for a good portion of the mid range. That said the GFS could be right and we could see a lengthy UK-wide settled spell.

 

surely conditions been to hot is down to the individual , personally I find the high twenties not very comfortable but whatever the temps the forecast at the moment doesn't look too bad just a case of waiting and seeing now

[Frosty.]

I'm liking the Gfs 6z op run once we are through the cooler changeable blip between Mon / Thurs because from next Friday, summer is back with high pressure building in over the uk with increasingly warm and settled weather taking control...becoming hotter and hotter and more humid before a traditional thundery breakdown but before that, temps soar into the high 80's / low 90's F.. it's the trend I like, another spell of summery weather could be on the way!

[Matthew.]

The GFS is staying consistent with the dreamland summer conditions. Let's hope this keeps up for the holidays

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Matthew Wilson said:

The GFS is staying consistent with the dreamland summer conditions. Let's hope this keeps up for the holidays

I agree, it would be nice to have another plume which is what the 6z shows and the Ecm 00z but what I really want is a spell like the Gfs 00z showed with a nationwide very warm anticyclonic extended outlook.

[Man With Beard]

GFS 06Z ensembles. All 21 members with high pressure in an ideal position between D7/D10 for dry, sunny and warm weather.

Can't get better than that.

[Frosty.]

Sensational GEFS 6z mean, even better than 00z with a nationwide very warm anticyclonic outlook. From next Friday until the end of the run and beyond the support is emphatic from the gefs for our best spell of this summer so far.

[Summer Sun]

This afternoon's UKMO shows the high gradually shifting east which in turn closes off the cooler flow from the north

[markyo]

6 hours ago, Karl. said:

I agree, it would be nice to have another plume which is what the 6z shows and the Ecm 00z but what I really want is a spell like the Gfs 00z showed with a nationwide very warm anticyclonic extended outlook.

Why?? We just don't need that weather,holiday period,Parents and especially kids will find that type of weather tough to cope with,sorry strongly disagree on this one.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z is an improvement on recent runs which showed more trough influence. This run shows high pressure gradually taking control from the south from later next week with southern parts looking good and gradually the fine weather takes over the rest of the uk and it becomes warmer as time goes on, very warm by the end and potentially hot.

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, markyo said:

Why?? We just don't need that weather,holiday period,Parents and especially kids will find that type of weather tough to cope with,sorry strongly disagree on this one.

If it was a choice between another plume and yet more cool Atlantic dross I would take a plume but if it was a choice between another plume and a major anticyclonic very warm spell then I would grab that since it's what's been missing from this misfiring summer. There are signs we could be on course for our best spell of the summer..Fingers and toes crossed!

Edited August 6, 2016 by Karl.

[cheese]

17 minutes ago, markyo said:

Why?? We just don't need that weather,holiday period,Parents and especially kids will find that type of weather tough to cope with,sorry strongly disagree on this one.

You mean you will find it tough to cope with. Most of us will find it just fine.

[markyo]

8 minutes ago, cheese said:

You mean you will find it tough to cope with. Most of us will find it just fine.

Today was perfect,why want more? Most i feel would agree. As for finding it tough to cope with i'll swap jobs for a week with you...you would find it tough to cope.