Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Yarmy]

3 hours ago, bryan629 said:

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather  Jul 31

W COUNTRY OUTLOOK 2/2 Into 2nd half, UKMO GLOSEA5 maintains idea of blocking across Scandinavia, resulting in more settled, warmer E'ly flow

Ha, so we have the GEFS mean:

 

 

...then the Beeb's southerly flow and finally GLOSEA's easterly flow. Take your pick.

 

 

[Methuselah]

^^ That sounds as if there's a hint of an omega block developing. But, also, that no-one seems to know precisely where?

[Man With Beard]

GEFS 06Z at T240 today (Friday 12th August). This is the mean:

Almost all ensemble members have that high pressure in the mid-Atlantic. 13 out of 21 run have some sort of North Sea/Scandi trough, so a sizeable number but not all. 

What the mean doesn't show, though, is 8 out of 21 runs have high pressure being the main feature over the UK itself, in various forms but summed up in this one:

- which isn't totally unreasonable given the mean chart and wouldn't be a bad result at all - not hot, but pleasant. (carry this run on through FI and it doesn't collapse too quickly either)

This kind of scenario has gone from the form horse to the dark horse in the past 48 hours, but it's still there, and there's a lot of water to go under the bridge before then.

So not a lost cause for a summery mid-August yet.

 

[MP-R]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

^^ That sounds as if there's a hint of an omega block developing. But, also, that no-one seems to know precisely where?

More like what the models were showing only a day or two ago before the snowy I mean showery north(west)erlies started appearing. Wouldn't be surprised if there's a watering down of any northerly blast as per winter with more of an anticyclonic and less cool influence.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Wouldn't be surprised if there's a watering down of any northerly blast as per winter with more of an anticyclonic and less cool influence.

Disagree, more chance of a summer Northerly blast upgrading whilst downgrading in winter, as is the case with summer southerly plumes downgrading but cool in summer normally upgrades in my experience..we have a climate with a sense of humour in the uk!

[MP-R]

4 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Disagree, more chance of a summer Northerly blast upgrading whilst downgrading in winter, as is the case with summer southerly plumes downgrading but cool in summer normally upgrades in my experience..we have a climate with a sense of humour in the uk!

Lol, humour aside...

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows a nice warm up for the south of the uk later this week, especially through the weekend into the start of next week when temps climb into the mid to upper 20s celsius, especially across southern / southeastern counties but most of england and wales enjoy warm fine weather but more changeable across northern uk. The main anticyclone pulls west into the atlantic next week but leaves a ridge across the south for a time. The mean doesn't become as cool and unsettled as the 6z op next week, it doesn't support a strong cool northerly plunge but it does show less settled and cooler temps as time goes on from the nw but later the Azores high starts to ridge in from the southwest again. It looks like the south is in for a summery spell lasting 4 or 5 days from friday to around next tuesday.

Edited August 2, 2016 by Karl.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z perturbations are interesting, the control run and P3 strongly support the operational with an unseasonably cool and strong unsettled northerly plunge, some are watered down versions while others show high pressure sticking around.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational run looks good for the south of the uk between Friday and Monday with pressure rising and increasingly fine and warm conditions with temps into the mid 20s celsius, the fine spell lasts longest in the southeast. For the north of the uk, especially the far nw / n it looks more unsettled but with occasional fine interludes. From next tuesday it turns more unsettled and cooler from the northwest but Scotland bears the brunt of this, it's more of a glancing blow compared to the 6z and the south doesn't become too cool although there are some unseasonably cool nights next week with even a touch of frost in rural northern areas. Further ahead there is weak ridging across the south with a chance of warmth reaching the south later with trough influence mainly further north...this weekend is looking very nice the further south you are.

[Frosty.]

I get the feeling there will be a cool plunge from the north / northwest during next week, the gfs 12z shows it and the ukmo hints at it, the gem 12z looks similar to the gfs too but just how cool and unsettled is still unclear, could be full on or just a glancing blow but high pressure does look like pulling further west into the atlantic for a time with a trough swinging down from the nw / n..in the meantime, tomorrow looks fine and warm for most of England and Wales, warmest in the southeast quadrant at 24c 75f but unseasonably windy tomorrow with approx 35 mph gusts from a southwesterly direction. Thursday looks like sunshine and a few heavy showers dotted around but from Friday it becomes drier, sunnier and warmer in the south...setting up a summery weekend across southern / southeast England at least.

[Polar Maritime]

27 minutes ago, Karl. said:

I get the feeling there will be a cool plunge from the north / northwest during next week, the gfs 12z shows it and the ukmo hints at it, the gem 12z looks similar to the gfs too but just how cool and unsettled is still unclear,

The Netwx MR take for next Tuesday.

Edited August 2, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows summery weather returning to most of England and Wales this weekend with temps into the mid 20's celsius range and perhaps upper 20's c across the s / se for a time, the warm fine weather lasts into early next week, longest further SE. It should be noted that the north of the uk is less fortunate but even the north has some pleasant conditions too. The fine spell starts to crumble across southern uk next tuesday as the anticyclone splits in two, the main high retrogressing further into the atlantic and the door is then kicked open to enable a cool plunge from the north with lowering heights to the n / ne..so, becoming cooler, breezier and less settled next week looks the form horse after a warm start but the north of the uk looks like becoming coolest and most unsettled at this stage. The good news is, later on the Azores high ridges in again with a return of fine and warm weather, at least to the southern half of the uk.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z looks increasingly warm on saturday and hot in the south on sunday, somewhere could top 30 celsius, most of England and Wales looks warm / very warm on sun which is the peak of the fine spell with temps widely mid 20's c and Monday looks very warm in the s / se too. High pressure bringing a lovely summery spell to the south but staying more changeable and less warm across northern uk...BUT..next week gradually becomes much cooler from the north, following the heat in the south it would be a shock to the system, especially overnights when it looks unseasonably cold, cold enough for slight frosts in rural northern parts. The north bears the brunt of the chill with most showers and coolest temps but the eastern side of the uk in particular would really feel it. The end of the run shows the cool air supply gradually cut off by a ridge building in from the southwest.

[mb018538]

Looks like we are firming up on a northerly after the weekend warmth...could be some frost in a few places with 850s around zero!

[Singularity]

The models seem pretty keen on a cross-polar flow of sorts mid-next week, ECM and GEM in particular. Cue the usual 'if only it was..' comments! Very interesting times ahead from both a UK and global perspective, if not necessarily all that enjoyable for many once past Monday.

[seaside 60]

Jesus Karl you have posted over 100 charts in the last 4 hours.
I think I am charted out, lol...

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Jesus Karl you have posted over 100 charts in the last 4 hours.
I think I am charted out, lol...

Yes I think I've probably done enough today, I will give someone else a chance

[Cloud 10]

Maybe a plume from the opposite direction this time?

 

Indeed."if only it was..."

 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Maybe a plume from the opposite direction this time?

 

Indeed."if only it was..."

 

Has GP set is torpedo off already,please....

didn't this happen last year when all the good synoptics was far too early?

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Maybe a plume from the opposite direction this time?

 

Indeed."if only it was..."

 

It's like I always say, get the cold air in place first..oops wrong season. It would be cool to see snow on the highest mountains next week though and there must be a slight chance of that occurring, there should be slight frosts in the north at least, the other night it fell to -1c 30f in parts of the highlands, next week it would get lower!

Edited August 2, 2016 by Karl.

[Scorcher]

11 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Maybe a plume from the opposite direction this time?

 

Indeed."if only it was..."

 

You really couldn't make that chart up could you...we're literally the only populated place in the Northern Hemisphere with those blue colours over us...even the near continent and Scandinavia is spared the worst of it.

[Allseasons-Si]

33 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Yes I think I've probably done enough today, I will give someone else a chance

Keep posting them Karl as it's easy on the eye to newcomers and you say what you see,keep up the great work buddy

[Frosty.]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Keep posting them Karl as it's easy on the eye to newcomers and you say what you see,keep up the great work buddy

Thanks I will do my best

[DR(S)NO]

52 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Thanks I will do my best

I would imagine,with charts like that, that Frosty could be back sooner rather than later.

[skifreak]

1 hour ago, Karl. said:

It's like I always say, get the cold air in place first..oops wrong season. It would be cool to see snow on the highest mountains next week though and there must be a slight chance of that occurring, there should be slight frosts in the north at least, the other night it fell to -1c 30f in parts of the highlands, next week it would get lower!

Some charts suggest mountain snow possible in the Scottish Highlands and falling August snow with new lying snow seems to have suddenly become noticeably more common in recent years.

Edited August 2, 2016 by skifreak