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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016


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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

Fortunately we can still have a very nice Autumn with plenty of time for respectable spells of sunshine and warmth. Is this also yet another quiet hurricane season ?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
8 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Fortunately we can still have a very nice Autumn with plenty of time for respectable spells of sunshine and warmth. Is this also yet another quiet hurricane season ?

All indications are that this hurricane season will be average to above average.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
Just now, summer blizzard said:

All indications are that this hurricane season will be average to above average.

a late starter then - may effect us going into Autumn but usually holds off till about October

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
8 minutes ago, andymusic said:

a late starter then - may effect us going into Autumn but usually holds off till about October

Peak season in which ~80% of activity occurs is August-October. We already had four tropical storms in June even if July was quiet. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
9 minutes ago, andymusic said:

a late starter then - may effect us going into Autumn but usually holds off till about October

Actually - a consequence of the synoptics that have dominated summer so far is that the massive anticyclone parked a bit lower than normal in the Atlantic has continually scooped up a lot of dry and dusty air out of the Sahara and pushed it out into the Atlantic breeding grounds - net result of this is that unfavourable conditions for hurricanes to be spawned. As we go into august this is expected to weaken, so expect things to perk up pretty soon.

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
6 minutes ago, andymusic said:

a late starter then - may effect us going into Autumn but usually holds off till about October

I thought it was the earliest start on record..... :D... with a January hurricane. Suppose it helps the numbers to have 4 named storms already but not seeing any signals for something big to turn the August pattern around.

It is fine saying good weather can come in Sep/Oct but that's no use to people who have kids on holiday and want decent weather for outdoor or beach activities.

That's a pretty horrific August chart for 7 days ahead.  ECM1-168_cgm4.GIF

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The EPS this morning continues to show the transition from a trough to positive heights towards day 10 in the western Atlantic which briefly allows and incursion HP into southern England. As the HP to the west edges east the trough comes more into play suppressing the HP over the UK. This familiar scenario of HP to the south west, and LP to the NW/N pertains through the 10-15 period and portends an upper W/WNW flow, changeable weather conditions, and temps a little below average.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pngecm_eps_z500a_natl_11.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

See

4 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

This morning's GEM would be in line with the more positive side of the ECM ensembles, I'd imagine 

 

 

The Gem 00z looked great for the south by the end of next week, I posted the charts on the previous page but the GEFS 6z mean has pushed the ridge further south which means it would only become fine for a time across the sw / s / se with most of the uk staying changeable / unsettled which is also how the met office see it.

Before all that though, the next 4 days or so don't look bad with a nw'ly airflow bringing good visibility, plenty of sunshine and a few heavy showers dotted around with a risk of thunder but actually most of the south looks fine with long sunny spells, the south and southeast could reach 24c tomorrow and with low humidity that will feel perfect and 23c on sunday with the rest of England and Wales into the upper teens celsius, nearer mid to upper teens c for northern uk and more frequent showers further north too but saturday night looks unseasonably cool right across the uk, low single digits c in rural parts of the north and a cool 10c even in the south.

Next midweek looks much more unsettled with heavy rain and humidity rising again but from later next week it's back to sunshine and showers with a fresher feel but as I said, the south could have a warm and settled few days at the end of next week which may last early into week 2... I'm not giving up on upgrades which would mean more of the uk has a fine spell too,  I think it's finely balanced.

21_216_500mb.png

Edited by Karl.
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

More active hurricane seasons tend to favour more high pressure over us in August and September but these aren't likely to show up in the models until nearer the time. For the time being, the jet looks to be stuck in a very unfavourable and rather unseasonal position. Could do with a hurricane to pull up a nice anticyclone over us.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The heat of last week is certainly now a fading memory as we are now heading towards a much cooler and more unsettled outlook.

At the moment modeling is showing that areas further south will see more rainfall in the coming week than we have seen for some time as more active systems move in on a somewhat stronger jet aiming straight for the UK.

A look at some of next weeks charts show the expected setup

1.png2.png3.png4.png

exact detail may change slightly but the ens do indicate that sort of outcome.

Gefs jet pattern next week-snapshot for Tuesday/Thursday

                      jet tues.png           jet thurs.png

So not looking great next week with temperatures struggling to attain anything close to normal,even in the more favoured south east.

The London ensembles graph

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

says it all i think.

Just looking at the day 10 ens means reads essentially little change overall

EDH1-240.gifgensnh-21-1-240.png

Still a cool westerly pattern with the resident Icelandic trough pushing against a rather flat Azores high.Just a hint maybe of some improvement further south as the Azores high extends towards mainland Europe with surface pressure rising.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z op run has a changeable / unsettled high res with the best of any warm settled interludes restricted to the s / se but during low res there is a gradual improvement with high pressure becoming more influential and the jetstream forced further north so towards mid August would be more pleasant for all areas. 

Wish we could have a repeat of August 1995!

h500slp.png

h500slp (1).png

h500slp (2).png

h500slp (3).png

hgt300.png

Rrea00119950818.gif

Rrea00219950818.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Terrible in the next short term, we can hope for a change into the second week of August...but for now it's what appears to be our now standard August low pressure fest

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean has improved slightly compared to the 6z, the Azores ridge looks to get further north and there are some decent perturbations. I think at least the south will have a warmer more settled spell towards the end of next week with temps into the mid 20's celsius.

21_192_500mb.png

21_216_500mb.png

21_240_500mb.png

3_240_500mb.png

10_240_500mb.png

12_240_500mb.png

14_288_500mb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Me and my big mouth, the Ecm 12z doesn't indicate any settled weather for the next 10 days, it looks changeable / unsettled throughout, some moderate swings in temperatures from cool to warm etc but no fine weather in particular..some sunshine obviously but rain and showers on most days and breezy at times, the driest period is the next 3 or 4 days further south with sunshine and just a few showers, pleasant in the sun but cool overnight, especially saturday night. I still think there is enough time to see things improve for the first weekend in august.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Terrible in the next short term

It's not terrible at all, good sunny spells and the odd shower is pretty decent with pleasant temps, low humidity and cool nights..what's terrible about that?

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

It's not what I want in high summer! :D

I'd just like one anticyclone for 5 days or so, with blue skies, sunshine and a few fluffy clouds, and temps in the mid to upper twenties....like I and many others reminisce about from the old days! It will probably turn up in October!

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Back to what's actually in the models please chaps-not what we would like.

You can of course continue that discussion in the Summer thread,ta.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The EPS is not great tonight and the height rises in the west are not doing us any favours dragging cooler air down which continues in the ext period. So remaining generally unsettled with temps a little below average. From this upper pattern it's difficult to see where we can conjure up any sustained period of warm weather within the next 14 days.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pngecm_eps_z500a_natl_11.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I agree knocker, try as I have to find a sustained settled spell I've failed, I just get hooked when I see a good trend for a few days I start to believe it and then the rug gets pulled. The Ecm 12z ens mean is a case in point, there is very little or nothing left of the Azores ridge for the south at the end of next week which has downgraded twice today, Better luck tomorrow:D

Reem1921.gif

Reem2161.gif

Reem2401.gif

Edited by Karl.
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
15 hours ago, knocker said:

 

3 hours ago, Karl. said:

 

12 minutes ago, Karl. said:

I agree knocker, try as I have to find a sustained settled spell I've failed, I just get hooked when I see a good trend for a few days I start to believe it and then the rug gets pulled. The Ecm 12z ens mean is a case in point, there is very little or nothing left of the Azores ridge for the south at the end of next week which has downgraded twice today. I'm sorry if my hopes mislead anyone..being criticised this morning by joggs wasn't nice either!

Reem1921.gif

Reem2161.gif

Reem2401.gif

 

sorry about the weird embedded quotes, something wrong with my phone!

The 12Z suite wasnt particularly kind today, and indeed western heights may inject cooler air - there's one factor that may sway all this and that's the deepening of the lows headed our way, supposedly, between T168 and T216. The impact of this is hard to pin down right now, and some ensembles that made less of it, or delayed it, stayed far more settled. That's the first thing I'll be looking at tomorrow.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Crawley
  • Location: Crawley
10 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

I thought it was the earliest start on record..... :D... with a January hurricane. Suppose it helps the numbers to have 4 named storms already but not seeing any signals for something big to turn the August pattern around.

It is fine saying good weather can come in Sep/Oct but that's no use to people who have kids on holiday and want decent weather for outdoor or beach activities.

That's a pretty horrific August chart for 7 days ahead.  ECM1-168_cgm4.GIF

 

Just looking to learn more, what does this chart show?

Thanks in advance

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
51 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

Just looking to learn more, what does this chart show?

Thanks in advance

It's a surface pressure chart, so illustrates low pressure to the north of Scotland and an anticyclone (an area of high pressure commonly known as the Azores high) to the south-west of the UK, with the consequence that the jetstream runs west to east right across the UK. For more traditional July weather weather we need the jet to move further north of the UK allowing the high to move up and over the UK. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
6 hours ago, Mac_SE said:

It's a surface pressure chart, so illustrates low pressure to the north of Scotland and an anticyclone (an area of high pressure commonly known as the Azores high) to the south-west of the UK, with the consequence that the jetstream runs west to east right across the UK. For more traditional July weather weather we need the jet to move further north of the UK allowing the high to move up and over the UK. 

Without wishing to be pedantic it's a 500mb chart, The colours representing the height of the 500mb level in dm The higher heights red indicate the high pressure and the lower heights blue/green low pressure, with the surface pressure chart (white lines) superimposed on it but the description above is spot on.

Regarding 500mb charts

The 500 Millibar Basics

The 500 mb surface is a constant pressure surface approximately midway up in the troposphere (the lowest layer of the earth’s atmosphere). The pressure exerted by the air column above this level is exactly 500 mb, but the altitude or height of this surface varies. The 500 mb constant pressure surface averages approximately 5600 m (18,000 plus ft) in height, but can vary from roughly 4700 m in an extremely cold (more dense) atmosphere near the poles to nearly 6000 m in a very warm (less dense) atmosphere near the equator. When mapping weather above the surface, constant pressure surfaces are preferred to constant height surfaces because the physics and math involved with the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere are better applied on constant pressure surfaces. For professional meteorologists (and mariners), the use and application of the 500 mb charts is very powerful for predicting the development and behavior of surface weather!

http://www.vos.noaa.gov/MWL/dec_08/milibar_chart.shtml

Hope this helps :)

Edited by knocker
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