Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Wildswimmer Pete]

57 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Looking at the Saturday 6th of August chart in particular as I have a barbecue that evening. 
Its worth remembering that by then a big chunk of the UK will have left the world of the lingering twilight, so with the jet steam stepping up a gear at about the same time, could this be one of the first autumnal storms of the season is this chart comes off?? 

I find the appearance of green snot with a blue core near the UK on recent thickness charts unsettling. It really does look that August is yet another autumn month.

[The PIT]

 

8 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

I find the appearance of green snot with a blue core near the UK on recent thickness charts unsettling. It really does look that August is yet another autumn month.

It does seem a bit early for it doesn't it.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z op run is more changeable than unsettled in the south and the other way round across northern UK. Temperatures are ok in the s / se with 21/22c on most days and occasionally into the mid 20's celsius but nearer the high teens to low 20's c across central UK and mid to high teens c across the n / nw uk. The general weather type for most of the run is sunshine and showers, some heavy with hail and thunder but further south could see less in the way of showers and more in the way of sunny spells, the most frequent showers look to be further to the north but we would all see occasional frontal bands of rain which could be heavy but there are also short lived warm and settled interludes, especially further s / se. Next tuesday looks a decent day, some nights look unseasonably cool, mainly in the north but some warm and humid nights too, mainly in the south.

 

 

Edited July 28, 2016 by Karl.

[knocker]

A hiccup in the upper pattern. From trough to ridge in the western Atlantic. Not good news. Although strictly speaking it can't get worse.

Edited July 28, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

Exactly knocker - it doesn't matter where the ridge is, you can guarantee the trough will be over us whatever happens. Infuriating.

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, knocker said:

A hiccup in the upper pattern. From trough to ridge in the western Atlantic. Not good news. Although strictly speaking it can't get worse.

Agreed knocker, the GEFS 12z has downgraded the Azores high potential for the first August weekend but that is not surprising as the met office have today dropped any mention of a fine and warm spell at the end of next week. I would like to think the fine signal could strengthen again but what I'm seeing from the latest mean is a generally changeable / unsettled broadly westerly Atlantic pattern with just a brief ridge for the south of the uk around 7th / 8th August...however, the Gfs 12z was a complete dogs breakfast of a run but max temps in the s / se were still around 22c and occasionally 24/25c which would be a lot warmer than the rest of the uk. The Gefs 12z perturbations still show a few nice possibilities, I would grab P2 if it was offered but less goodies than the 6z...I won't give up though!.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

A hiccup in the upper pattern. From trough to ridge in the western Atlantic. Not good news. Although strictly speaking it can't get worse.

 

This evening's Ecm 12z looks generally unsettled and cool in the north and changeable further south with occasional drier and brighter days, next Mon / Tues bring a bit of a suckers gap but most of next week indicates occasional bands of rain interspersed with sunshine and showers, there are a few potentially much warmer days further south when temps could reach 25/26c but that depends on whether the sun comes out for any length of time. Some days look rather cool for the time of year, even in the south with unseasonably cool nights to follow, especially this weekend but with sunshine and showers, some places could end up pleasantly warm with sunny periods and just the odd shower. 

[knocker]

Yes Karl. Essentially Monday we lose the NW showery influence of the LP to the NE and come under brief ridging before the next frontal systems arrive early weds morning, mainly effecting the south as it happens, and then the UK is under the influence of the main  low to the NW/N thus a showery westerly regime until the weekend. The detail of course still up for grabs. The chart for 12z Wednesday

[Man With Beard]

Latest NOAA - pretty average, best in the south

just to lift spirits ... at least it's slightly better than this one, which preceded some pretty dreadful weather in early August 2013

...just shows how things can change!! I haven't lost all hope in that pressure rise 6/7 August yet, though the models are pouring a bit of cold water on it at the moment - there must have been some credibility in the idea for so many ensemble members to have gone hot in the last 48 hours - the possibility must still exist - here's hoping!!

And if anyone in the south would like a further straw clutch ... this is the ensemble chart for Paris. Lots of very hot runs in FI.  Yes, it's common for this to happen in our kind of set-up, with the UK missing out - but equally, you wouldn't bet your house on this heat not being a couple of hundred miles further north come T0

Edited July 28, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensembles for London - op run almost an outlier towards the end 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=2&x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0

 

[knocker]

Not a great deal that we don't know already with the EPS this evening.and nothing in the ext period that fills one with joy. So much as has been mooted in previous posts.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight still indicates increasingly warm and fine weather returning to southern uk towards the end of next week and especially the first August weekend as the Azores ridge extends across the south, it's similar to what it's been showing for the last few days.

[joggs]

Sorry Frosty,aka,Karl,this is not a post to have a go,so to speak.But your posts((whilst most people want em to come to fruition),they generally do not.Yes you pick charts from so so mod and so so away but come on,it's starting to grate on a few(not a personal attack),but it's like this every winter and summer,it's like you have an agenda.

I could say the same about Knocker,but at least he's been more on the mark!.

Sorry if peeps disagree,frustrated with our horrible seasons atm but stand by the above

Tamara,Jh n meto long range n you can't go wrong.Not that they're infallible,but consistent.

[knocker]

Today

A front straddles the middle of England moving SE. So warm and muggy south of the front with some intermittent rain/drizzle but cooler and fresher north of it in a light NW.

A brief look at this morning's GFS.

The light cool NW over the weekend gives way to a brief ridge on Monday before a small perturbation runs through the Channel in the early hours of Tuesday. This is a forerunner of the next system and fronts that run NE into southern Scandinavia over Wednesday and Thursday bringing some quite wet weather to the north. We then quite rapidly have a shortwave phasing in with the main low bringing rain to the south on Thursday and then general showery conditions for Friday before High pressure moves in for the weekend.

A brief comment on the post by Joggs above. If it's an agenda he's looking for then try this thread in winter because it can safely be said that over that period the whole raison d'etre of the thread is concentrated on just one agenda,

Edited July 29, 2016 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

5 hours ago, joggs said:

Sorry Frosty,aka,Karl,this is not a post to have a go,so to speak.But your posts((whilst most people want em to come to fruition),they generally do not.Yes you pick charts from so so mod and so so away but come on,it's starting to grate on a few(not a personal attack),but it's like this every winter and summer,it's like you have an agenda.

I could say the same about Knocker,but at least he's been more on the mark!.

Sorry if peeps disagree,frustrated with our horrible seasons atm but stand by the above

Tamara,Jh n meto long range n you can't go wrong.Not that they're infallible,but consistent.

It wouldn't really be a discussion board if people all had the same approach. JH and Knocker try to take a balanced approach which normally involves the rejection of extremes, unless highly certain to happen. Tamara gives us a view generally based on background drivers (proving pretty good right at the moment). Karl is looking for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow (and yes I'm a little like that too on here, don't people like a bit of hope as long as there's some sort of basis? Isn't that why some people read this forum?). And a few others on here post the worst possible charts because, perhaps, they are venting their personal disappointment or cynicism. As it's a discussion board, not a "reporting board", I really think there should be room for everyone.

And may I add too - while I've been on here, every type of poster has had a victory at some point - Karl has actually been more accurate quite a few times when compared with the more balanced posters - and so have the cynics. That proves to me their worth.

And the current set-up is another one of those where I'm prepared to stick my neck out in a positive way. I'm predicting between 4 and 7 warm and pleasant days across most of the UK from 6th or 7th August onwards. The GFS, GEM and general pattern on the GEFS this morning back up the feeling I got last night from the ECM ens, where there was clearly good weather potential.

Edited July 29, 2016 by Man With Beard

[knocker]

Surely this is not about scoring a 'victory'? It's that sort of self-congratulatory attitude that often turns this thread into a battle zone, particularly in winter but is now creeping in in summer,.And in any case it is too often driven by personal preferences and not objectivity.

Edited July 29, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Appalling outputs for anyone wanting some seasonal weather as we move into August.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

GFS is just as bad so i guess we can pretty confidently forget the first week of next month as far as summer weather is concerned.- such a shame for all the children on their summer hols, again.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please move on from discussing personal posting styles from here on in, Thanks.

[knocker]

But with height rises in the western Atlantic and temps rising in the south by day 10

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 00z mean at T+240 hours indicates we could be under the influence of the Azores ridge or even an Anticyclone centred over the uk by the end of the first week of August, the Gefs is still offering encouragement with a few nice perturbations too. Two words I have used a lot recently are cautious optimism.

[mb018538]

I reckon today's output marks a low point of the summer so far....got to be the worst looking set of runs we've seen! 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is showing a north / south split by the end of next week with the south influenced by the Azores ridge extending across southern uk with a spell of warmer and more settled conditions with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius by the first weekend in August, the warmest weather across southern / southeastern counties but continuing more changeable / unsettled atlantic driven across the north of the uk,  specifically n.Ireland and scotland.

[Man With Beard]

ECM T240 mean quite similar to GEFS T240 mean except around Scotland, where low pressure is kept much further north on the latter

  

in all honesty the ECM is a very tiny step backwards from last night's - but still painfully close to being a very good run, and certainly more than acceptable. 

This morning's GEM would be in line with the more positive side of the ECM ensembles as far as the UK is concerned, I'd imagine (a few clear differences elsewhere of course)

Something like GEFS member 18 would fit the overall ensemble output well for T200-T300, I think - 6th August, a short ridge of high pressure, followed by a temporary interruption on 8th August as we are caught between ridges to the south (not particularly rainy), before the weak mid-Atlantic ridge topples over us for the 9th to 12th (maybe a bit more southerly-based than shown). Just a calculated guess - not a definitive forecast - the weather is far too unpredictable for that, of course!

    

And just for balance, this is worst-case...

but very few ensembles are like this today so far - more are better than worse

Edited July 29, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This morning's GEM would be in line with the more positive side of the ECM ensembles, I'd imagine 

 

 

Agreed, the Gem 00z looks good for the south of the uk, especially by the first weekend in August.

[mb018538]

6z GFS is another run for the bin...with only a good 3 weeks of summer left, and the first week written off, time is slowly running out for Summer 2016. Can we summon one last hurrah?