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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
52 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'll take it. West would be best in these scenarios but much cooler on North Sea coasts.

The GFS 0z has a lovely fat High to the North of the UK in deep FI.

Growing signs of a decent mid August? 

 

The easterlies are forecast to surge over the Pacific which should produce a negative GLAAM response towards the 10th-20th August. I'd be very wary.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The trend is our friend this morning according to the GEFS 00z mean because although the next 6 / 7 days or so look increasingly unsettled and cooler, the Azores high ridges into the south next week with more of a n / s split and further ahead is even better with a stronger pressure rise bringing widespread warm and settled weather between early and mid August and I happen to think August will be a better month than July and much better than June..that wouldn't be difficult would it?!:D

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

No significant changes with the EPS this morning. Cool and unsettled in the ten day period and the only change in the ext period is replacing the negative anomaly in the Atlantic for a positive one. Erg still LP to the NW and HP to the SW with the upper flow veered a tad to WNW.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
10 minutes ago, knocker said:

No significant changes with the EPS this morning. Cool and unsettled in the ten day period and the only change in the ext period is replacing the negative anomaly in the Atlantic for a positive one. Erg still LP to the NW and HP to the SW with the upper flow veered a tad to WNW.

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You were saying the same thing before the recent high pressure and plume..i.e. nothing positive regarding warmth or fine weather while others were being derided for posting warm anticyclonic Fi charts but look what happened.. 32-34c...I think August will improve, it may be a slow start but I think we will have a nationwide settled and warm / very warm spell during August whatever the EPS is currently showing!:)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
3 minutes ago, Karl. said:

You were saying the same thing before the recent high pressure and plume..i.e. nothing positive regarding warmth or fine weather while others were being derided for posting warm anticyclonic Fi charts but look what happened.. 32-34c...I think August will improve, it may be a slow start but I think we will have a nationwide settled and warm / very warm spell during August whatever the EPS is currently showing!:)

As always I bow to your wisdom and experience.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, knocker said:

As always I bow to your wisdom and experience.

No need for sarcasm, it's just the truth!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
22 minutes ago, Karl. said:

No need for sarcasm, it's just the truth!

 You seem to be missing the point. As I've said more than once within the mobile upper pattern, depending on the phasing of the LP and HP it is quite likely the south will get some dry and quite warm interludes as the Azores ridge becomes temporarily more influential. But the overall upper pattern is essentially the same. Of course I could well be wrong. I often am.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Bordering on tit-for-tat comments here guys so let's nip it in the bud please :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Bordering on tit-for-tat comments here guys so let's nip it in the bud please :)

Cheers Nick, apologies:)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Agh the age old MDT argument, reality v hope. To my mind reality belongs in here and hope in the moans and ramps thread, but as last week proved hope can at times become reality, seemingly despite the dominant background signals. 

There is ample room for reality and hope. There is no reason why we won't have another summery spell in early or mid August..I'm seeing hints of it in the extended range and even next week indicates improvement for the south due to the ebb and flow of the Azores high and lower heights to the northwest / north. The reality is the next week or so looks cooler and unsettled but not a washout.

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2 minutes ago, Karl. said:

There is ample room for reality and hope. There is no reason why we won't have another summery spell in early or mid August..I'm seeing hints of it in the extended range and even next week indicates improvement for the south due to the ebb and flow of the Azores high and lower heights to the northwest / north. The reality is the next week or so looks cooler and unsettled but not a washout.

In that case does it not beg the question, should there be ample room for what most would perceive as overly negative comments too, as long as they are backed up with charts?  I accept this is a difficult one however and agree with your point above re signs of an improvement next week across the south if nowt else.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
19 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

In that case does it not beg the question, should there be ample room for what most would perceive as overly negative comments too, as long as they are backed up with charts?  

Absolutely, as long as its not sarcastic / condescending in nature. Too much negativity is a turn off. I'm seeing hints from the models of better times beyond the next week / ten days...I may well be wrong but I'm trying to be positive. :- )

Edited by Karl.
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

The 6z is probably one of the worst runs this summer....hoping it's a bit of an outlier!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
36 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Absolutely, as long as its not sarcastic / condescending in nature. Too much negativity is a turn off. I'm seeing hints from the models of better times beyond the next week / ten days...I may well be wrong but I'm trying to be positive. :- )

None of the three posts I made this morning, with charts, were sarcastic or condescending, and in fact in response to one of them you made this totally irrelevant comment

Quote

Most of us want height rises over the uk, not the sodding Atlantic!

Your continued assumption that some of us do not want a spot of good and warm weather simply because we take what we consider a realistic view of the prospects tends to get a bit wearing. And regarding another spell of warm weather for the south, I repeat, I would have thought I'd made my position on this quite clear on two or three occasions.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Ok lets please swiftly move on now from this, And continue discussing what the Model Outputs are showing.

Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean shows an improvement next week, at least across the south of the uk as the Azores high ridges in so hopefully a significant improvement on this week further south with temps rising into the mid 20's celsius range once again. Further ahead is even better, again the trend beyond the start of August is for a stronger pressure rise from the Azores with increasingly settled and warmer weather across much of the uk. This week looks unsettled and fresher with winds becoming more NWly but the isobars should spread out by the weekend and in any sunny spells it would be pleasantly warm, again, especially further south but it's no washout, there will be some rain and showers but sunshine too.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

The 6z is probably one of the worst runs this summer....hoping it's a bit of an outlier!

I was actually encouraged by FI again showing the jet being diverted up to Iceland due to the increased heights in mid Atlantic. 

We shall shortly see if the 12z continues the trend.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

WOW that was a gruesome Gfs 12z op run this evening, lots of trough domination and cool air for most areas but still reaching 21 / 22c across the s /se on most days but struggling in the mid to upper teens celsius further n / nw and some unseasonably cool nights too...however, there are a few settled intervals too and I cherry picked the more pleasant charts but most of them were too awful to show.:closedeyes::D

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ukmo 12z shows a weak ridge pushing in off the Atlantic next Monday but you get the feeling it would be bulldozed out of the way soon after with an Atlantic pattern taking hold again. The Gem 12z is just a tad slower with the ridge next mon but again any ridging looks temporary with unsettled Atlantic weather largely in control. The one bright spot is the SE corner should have temps nudging into the low 20s celsius despite the general trough dominated outlook. In the meantime, the next few days still look warm and humid in the south with sunshine and a few sharp thundery showers tomorrow with temps around 22c but a higher chance of persistent rain on Thursday which is followed by cooler and fresher air from the northwest to all areas but at least brighter again with sunshine and showers.. So, unsettled 12z output with just the Ecm to come.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Casting the net out further, the GEFS 12z mean, as with the earlier 6z and 00z show an improving outlook by early to mid August with increasing Azores high influence, at least for England and Wales with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius. This of course is no guarantee, it could be better or worse but it gives a broad brush idea of an improving picture beyond the next 10 days or so..The reliable timeframe is looking unsettled but nothing unusually bad, the south could have some weak ridging next week but to be honest, the rest of this week and most of next week look unsettled with temps gradually dipping a bit below average.

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Edited by Karl.
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Back after a few days away - what message does the GEFS bring tonight? Well, the upcoming ridge from the Azores looks flattened out a little, so perhaps only some summer joy for southern parts at the start of next week. Then by D10, almost all ensembles are flat with the worse the weather the further north you go. 

But by D12, a bit of a change appearing, as the whole pattern is moved north a tad, as shown by the mean:

gens-21-1-300.png

and this reflects a number of dramatically improved ensembles - 17 out of 21 ensemble members shown considerable progress north of the upper high in some proximity to the UK - many just west of the UK, a few to the east and a few directly over us. I felt that this ensemble was perhaps the one most in the middle:

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now being D12, this is just a "trend watch" at the moment and not to be taken too seriously, but if the pattern starts to move towards T200, it will need careful watching. 

I'm also struck by the amalgamation of the past 4 GEFS ensembles that Meteociel provides - I picked Manchester for this:

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aside the short burst around D7/D8, the number of runs getting into the 10C-15C at 850hpa keeps increasing as the run goes on - looking at the London chart, quite a few get close to 20C (6 getting between 15C and 20C in the last ensemble run alone).

Unusual for the ensembles to pick out so many hot runs at long distance.

So plenty of hope there for summer seekers.

 

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z doesn't look as bad as the other 12z output to me, the south / southeast could have a few fine and warm days early next week as a ridge builds in briefly before subsiding and then much warmer uppers flood across the uk but with rain and showers too, however, the south of the uk has potential for mid 20s celsius or a tad higher in the SE through the middle part of next week, boosted by any decent sunshine. The overall picture is still unsettled but it's no washout. The rather warm and humid weather currently across southern uk is very slow to be shunted away south by cooler / fresher air seeping down from the northwest. Tomorrow starts dull and drizzly further south but it brightens up with the sun breaking through but this triggers a few heavy thundery showers. Thursday indicates a band of rain crossing from west to east followed by brighter, cooler and showery weather during Fri and into the coming weekend. Later in the run there is another ridge building into the south bringing another spell of fine and warm weather to the south.

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Edited by Karl.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonights Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a generally unsettled outlook for the next ten days. The cooler and fresher air across northern uk does eventually reach the south by the weekend but at least it looks brighter by then with sunny spells and just a few sharp showers dotted around and nights will be refreshingly cooler following all the high humidity. Next week shows some brief but weak ridging flirting with the south bringing some fine and pleasantly warm weather and for a time next week it becomes noticeably warmer in the south with mid 20s celsius with the best of any fine weather across southern / southeastern counties. The worst of the unsettled and cooler weather is further n / nw.

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