Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

This week it's increasingly low pressure with rain and showers and temps close to average with the air flow veering westerly / northwesterly but still pleasantly warm in the s / se with max temps around 22c but nearer the upper teens celsius across the northwest of the uk. Now for the potentially very good news, the GEFS 6z mean shows an improvement next week with the Azores high ridging NE and I had a look through the GEFS 6z perturbations, a small sample of which I've added below and found some peachy charts, including the control run for the early August period with spanish plumes and anticyclones so it wasn't just the 6z op showing a much warmer settled low res..let's hope August will bring a lot more of the very warm / hot weather we had recently.

[phil nw.]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Indeed, so it certainly can't be ruled out as the ensembles from TWO show

 

Not sure that's a strong signal for  August heat yet Gav -the green line(op run)is one of the warmest for that later period going into August.

Btw for general information we can see all those graphs on Net Weather if you have extra-these are our versions for London from the 06z Gefs run

these show the temperatures at the surface and 850hPa along with the expected rainfall

 

Even if we don't get any further hot days in the next 2 weeks it certainly looks quite dry and warm compared to rest of the UK in the se quarter.

 

Edited July 25, 2016 by phil nw.

[Summer Sun]

21 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Not sure that's a strong signal for  August heat yet Gav -the green line(op run)is one of the warmest for that later period going into August.

Btw for general information we can see all those graphs on Net Weather if you have extra-these are our versions for London from the 06z Gefs run

these show the temperatures at the surface and 850hPa along with the expected rainfall

 

Even if we don't get any further hot days in the next 2 weeks it certainly looks quite dry and warm compared to rest of the UK in the se quarter.

 

Agreed its still a very low chance at this present time, we'll just have to see how things pan out in the coming days

[mb018538]

The thing about those 6z ensembles is that there are just as many cool runs at hot ones....so basically we have no clue!

The 12z is utterly abysmal in the medium term - pretty unsettled and just all round rank. Improves later on, but that's too far into the sunset to worth worrying about.

[Frosty.]

Really poor Gfs 12z for the next 10 days with increasing trough domination this week and next week too apart from a brief weak ridge across the s / se  next monday but temps look disappointing, eventually not even reaching average in the south / southeast for a while and some very cool days here and there...not what most of us want to see in the height of the holiday season. Deeper into low res it improves, around 7th August onwards with high pressure building in across the south of the uk turning the weather more settled and warmer further south.

[Summer Sun]

Some very warm to hot runs again from GFS among the ensembles during the early stages of August

Just for fun at this stage 

[Matthew.]

46 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Some very warm to hot runs again from GFS among the ensembles during the early stages of August

Just for fun at this stage 

Strange anomaly isnt it. I thinking there must be something in the water but id be surprised if the atmosphere isnt surpressing cyclones onto the Uk more and more in August according to the atmospheric state.

Edited July 25, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Frosty.]

This is much better from the GEFS 12z mean, especially between early and mid August with the Azores high building in strongly with an increasingly settled and warmer extended outlook nationwide. In the meantime, this week looks like becoming more unsettled and cooler from the w / nw but early next week it becomes drier, brighter and pleasantly warmer across southern areas thanks to the Azores ridge but the subsequent high looks much better for all...fingers crossed for August!

[markyo]

2 minutes ago, Karl. said:

This is much better from the GEFS 12z mean, especially between early and mid August with the Azores high building in strongly with an increasingly settled and warmer extended outlook nationwide. In the meantime, this week looks like becoming more unsettled and cooler from the w / nw but early next week it becomes drier, brighter and pleasantly warmer across southern areas thanks to the Azores ridge but the subsequent high looks much better for all...fingers crossed for August!

I rest my case,that is one run,1 hr ago i quote you said the below. Picking your favourite output is pointless,exactly like the cold chasers do in winter,its the trend you must look for.

 

1 hour ago, Karl. said:

 

Really poor Gfs 12z for the next 10 days with increasing trough domination this week and next week too apart from a brief weak ridge across the s / se  next monday but temps look disappointing, eventually not even reaching average in the south / southeast for a while and some very cool days here and there...not what most of us want to see in the height of the holiday season.

 

 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, markyo said:

I rest my case,that is one run,1 hr ago i quote you said the below. Picking your favourite output is pointless,exactly like the cold chasers do in winter,its the trend you must look for.

Please tell me what I have done wrong?

I'm describing what I see, I think I've been fair actually so I don't know what your problem is.

Quote

 

[mhielte]

Just now, Karl. said:

Please tell me what I have done wrong?

I'm describing what I see, I think I've been fair actually so I don't know what your problem is.

I don't have a problem with the charts you are posting. I thought I'd comment about the mean though going into August. With it still being well into FI the mean isn't worth a great deal, especially when you look at the ensembles and see the strong divergence from the mean. There are several (encouragingly so) members warmer than the mean after 5th of August (when the scatter (read: uncertainty) widens), and also several below the mean, which by that stage is rather on its own.

The mean moderates these options to what might end up being the true outcome, but at the same time hides the extremes (which could end up as the true solution) I will concede it is a useful tool to keep an eye on as we get closer to August  Let's hope we see the mean creep ever further above the 10C 850HPA to support increased warm clusters 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, mhielte said:

I don't have a problem with the charts you are posting. I thought I'd comment about the mean though going into August. With it still being well into FI the mean isn't worth a great deal, especially when you look at the ensembles and see the strong divergence from the mean. There are several (encouragingly so) members warmer than the mean after 5th of August (when the scatter (read: uncertainty) widens), and also several below the mean, which by that stage is rather on its own.

The mean moderates these options to what might end up being the true outcome, but at the same time hides the extremes (which could end up as the true solution) I will concede it is a useful tool to keep an eye on as we get closer to August  Let's hope we see the mean creep ever further above the 10C 850HPA to support increased warm clusters 

Agreed, the good stuff is well into Fi on the GEFS 12z mean but I try to stay hopeful. It was similar well before we had the spanish plume, I was posting hot perturbations and then being told it wouldn't happen so I remain hopeful whilst also producing balanced comments and a variety of charts both good and bad.

[markyo]

26 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Please tell me what I have done wrong?

I'm describing what I see, I think I've been fair actually so I don't know what your problem is.

 

27 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Please tell me what I have done wrong?

I'm describing what I see, I think I've been fair actually so I don't know what your problem is.

I would just look for the trend first,can't disagree that you should post what you see,totally nothing wrong with that at all. To be very honest and this isn't blowing smoke by any means your posts do generally give some indication of a trend,this time i'm not so sure though,just my feeling though. Apologies if it came across in a wrong manner. At the start to the holiday season i do actually hope that the firming up of these charts takes hold but i think the next 5 to 7 days should give us a better clue to a good August or poor.

[Dangerous55019]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Some very warm to hot runs again from GFS among the ensembles during the early stages of August

Just for fun at this stage 

Evening Summer Sun 
There might only be a couple of warm/hot runs, but cast your mind back a few years ago to the infamous failed easterly in the winter of ????
If my memory serves me correctly, that easterly was totally nailed on, with only one run going against it... As time wore on... Well the rest is history.
The point I'm trying to make here is, although this heatwave (next Spanish Plume?) hasn't got much support at the moment it COULD well come off... Give or take a day or three either way... Don't give up hope, you're right to keep an eye on things 

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, markyo said:

 

I would just look for the trend first,can't disagree that you should post what you see,totally nothing wrong with that at all. To be very honest and this isn't blowing smoke by any means your posts do generally give some indication of a trend,this time i'm not so sure though,just my feeling though. Apologies if it came across in a wrong manner. At the start to the holiday season i do actually hope that the firming up of these charts takes hold but i think the next 5 to 7 days should give us a better clue to a good August or poor.

Thanks, I'm certainly looking for a trend that gets us back to something summery and the GEFS mean does improve significantly through early august so fingers crossed it becomes the trend through the coming days.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Karl. said:

Agreed, the good stuff is well into Fi on the GEFS 12z mean but I try to stay hopeful. It was similar well before we had the spanish plume, I was posting hot perturbations and then being told it wouldn't happen so I remain hopeful whilst also producing balanced comments and a variety of charts both good and bad.

keep posting 'em Frosty!

[knocker]

No indication from tonight's anomalies of any significant change in the upper pattern. Still positive heights norther Canada and trough adjacent to the UK with general low pressure in the Atlantic, Ergo a continuation of unsettled weather within the westerly airflow in the 10 day period with a northern bias and temps depressed and again with the latitudinal bias.

There are some differences in the 10-15 range, the GEFS for example has an upper low northern Canada and places less emphasis on the trough than the ecm, but essentially we are still in a westerly airstrean and an indication of continued unsettled weather, albeit interspersed with drier and sunny interludes. It may be as well to remember that withing this mobile upper air pattern the trough and HP will tend to wax and wane so in any particular phase surface ridging or Atlantic lows will be more dominant so with and the northerly bias ridging could bring some quite war interludes to the south.

Edited July 25, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

58 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

keep posting 'em Frosty!

Cheers..Frosty will return

In the meantime, the models show an unsettled spell but certainly not a washout, expect sunny spells at times although with winds veering westerly and then northwesterly later this week, it's already cooler and fresher and a relief following the recent very high humidity but max temps should still reach a pleasant 22c 72f in the s / se but upper teens celsius further to the n / nw. 

[knocker]

Today

Intermittent rain spreading in from the west will effect most  places. Temps generally down from recent levels.

This morning from the GFS. Look away now if you haven't had your double espresso.

Thursday sees a depression arriving from the west bringing rain to most parts which tracks NE phasing in with the low pressure area to the NE initiating a NW showery regime over the UK. Small perturbations are also likely to form within the general circulation. After brief ridging fronts from a new low to the NW arrive on Tuesday which also track NE. The master low tracks east mainly effecting the north within it's circulation as a ridge builds to the west by Friday. Temps initially a little below average but becoming nearer average,

. 

Edited July 26, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

The ext EPS has been hinting at height rises in the Atlantic over the last couple of days.

 

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ext EPS has been hinting at height rises in the Atlantic over the last couple of days.

 

Most of us want height rises over the uk, not the sodding Atlantic!

[coldcomfort]

Nothing in the overnight outputs to enthuse me, let alone excite me. Watched John Hammond last evening dangle the carrot of another plume later next week (albeit a low chance), but I suspect even that will be dropped this evening, with the Atlantic looking set to remain firmly in control deep into August. ECM is especially disappointing this morning imo, with nothing more than some brief, transient ridges between what look to become increasing deep and active areas of low pressure. GFS continues to tease in FI with some lovely looking charts, but whilst they remain at that range they are probably best ignored for a whole host of reasons, not least sanity!! 

[mountain shadow]

45 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Most of us want height rises over the uk, not the sodding Atlantic!

I'll take it. West would be best in these scenarios but much cooler on North Sea coasts.

The GFS 0z has a lovely fat High to the North of the UK in deep FI.

Growing signs of a decent mid August? 

 

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Growing signs of a decent mid August? 

 

Next week looks decent in the south according to the GEFS 00z mean with the Azores ridge building across southern areas, drier, warmer and sunnier further south.

[Summer Sun]

Some warm runs among the ensembles this morning but nothing like yesterday and Sunday 

Skipping the very warm to hot possibility it does look like staying rather dry in the south as we move into August gardens could certainly do with some rain now even up here in the NE the ground is very dry