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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Knocker - even I think your unsettled idea is looking more and more credible for the final weekend of July. I don't see any way out of a stream of lows hitting the UK tailgating on the back of the main trough. The signal for more mobility from the GEFS that I saw earlier in the week looks to be coming to fruition, only its impact looks set to be one of the worse options that I foresaw.

Last weekend, some on here said "enjoy the next few days" - that didn't apply to south or east of Manchester, which continue to be very good even now - but now I really do think it is reasonable to say enjoy the next few days!

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yes the weather is looking more shall i say changeable next week and somewhat cooler too- which i guess is inevitable after the heat of this week..

The trough to the north appears to become more influencial as the week goes on.

A look at the fax for Tuesday and a GFS pressure/jet image for Thurs pretty much sums up the pattern expected

PPVL89.gifjet thurs.png

It looks likely we will see a number of wavering fronts moving in from the Atlantic on that jet path although weakening somewhat as they come further south into higher pressure over the continent..A look at some of the rainfall ens graphs indeed show very little rainfall for the far south.Here for example East Sussex-just taken at random.

e sus.png

even further north not a great deal more.Having said that though It does look like a week with more cloud about with sporadic bands of what is sometimes called nuisance rain,cooler temperatures but with some periods of brighter drier conditions which in the warm sun will feel pleasant enough. 

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

ilYes the weather is looking more shall i say changeable next week and somewhat cooler too- which i guess is inevitable after the heat of this week..

The trough to the north appears to become more influencial as the week goes on.

A look at the fax for Tuesday and a GFS pressure/jet image for Thurs pretty much sums up the pattern expected

PPVL89.gifjet thurs.png

It looks likely we will see a number of wavering fronts moving in from the Atlantic on that jet path although weakening somewhat as they come further south into higher pressure over the continent..A look at some of the rainfall ens graphs indeed show very little rainfall for the far south.Here for example East Sussex-just taken at random.

e sus.png

even further north not a great deal more.Having said that though It does look like a week with more cloud about with sporadic bands of what is sometimes called nuisance rain,cooler temperatures but with some periods of brighter drier conditions which in the warm sun will feel pleasant enough. 

Phil..

Not an expert, but to me it still looks as the Greenie high is still dominating,the weather over the North Atlantic.

I suspect that until it removes itself(?), we cannot expect any prolonged summer weather in the UK.

To me it is a normal summer, with a few spells of rain, quite a few showers and even some heat induced storms(:D) at times as the high over Europe waxes and wains.

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Yes the 6-10 anomalies this morning make depressing viewing with the upper trough in it's worst position so I will refrain from posting. The chink of light remains towards the end of the ext EPS with the trough no more and height rises to the west.

ecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
14 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Phil..

Not an expert, but to me it still looks as the Greenie high is still dominating,the weather over the North Atlantic.

I suspect that until it removes itself(?), we cannot expect any prolonged summer weather in the UK.

To me it is a normal summer, with a few spells of rain, quite a few showers and even some heat induced storms(:D) at times as the high over Europe waxes and wains.

MIA

Yes our usual pattern in Summer is  a mean Icelandic trough against the Azores high.It really comes down to the interplay between those 2 main upper features.

The jet flow between them marking the boundary.This Summer so far this has been generally pretty flat across our latitude so we are relying on any transient ridging for good weather such as have had this week.

It does look like the trough will return us to more mixed and cooler conditions next week,as you say,more normal for the UK.☺

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Been away for this period of heat for many, topped out at 34.5C here which may be my record in almost 20 years data, will check. What interests me, forgive mods for asking for data of old, has anyone got links or copies of NOAA 6-10 day charts in this period please?

For sure to me looking at the data on 12th July I would certainly not have predicted what happened in that 6-10 day time frame.

Can anyone help please?

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Been away for this period of heat for many, topped out at 34.5C here which may be my record in almost 20 years data, will check. What interests me, forgive mods for asking for data of old, has anyone got links or copies of NOAA 6-10 day charts in this period please?

For sure to me looking at the data on 12th July I would certainly not have predicted what happened in that 6-10 day time frame.

Can anyone help please?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/short_range/srarc.ind.php

you can get old charts from any date using this link.

I think there were one or day days where it hinted at something like what happened, but not consistently.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Many thanks MTB, yes it is consistency that generally matters, I will have a look when I get time.

re the record T=no beaten into second place with 34.8C 22/08/15

 

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/short_range/srarc.ind.php

you can get old charts from any date using this link.

I think there were one or day days where it hinted at something like what happened, but not consistently.

 

Difficult to pick out a 1-2 day event from those charts though.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Just had a quick look at 16-18th and first glance, along with the daily charts I run when at home and nothing as I say at first glance would have said heat over 5+ days, one perhaps?

I will do a pdf on it rather than clutter up the current model comments-thanks again.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Nice to see high pressure in Fi on the Gfs 12z op run, hope it grows into a trend, ideally with troughs digging south well to the west of the uk with height rises to the S / SE / E with a continental anticyclone building north, hope the jet buckles to the west through into August with a few more plumes potential, it's the least we deserve.

h500slp.png

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h500slp (2).png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
25 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Well the 12z has this for the 1st of January, I mean 1st of August sorry:nea:

image.png

The one consolation is what's building in after it

h500slp.png

Nothing special temp wise high teens / low 20's but in any sunshine it will be pleasant enough

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

Yes a very valid point made by the posts above. It may allow a anticyclone to move in. The problem we have is we're in a Nina based atmospheric pattern which looks like pushing the Lows south, squeezing HP out of the equation soon after. 

image.png

image.png

Edited by Matthew Wilson
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
24 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes a very valid point made by the posts above. It may allow a anticyclone to move in. The problem we have is we're in a Nina based atmospheric pattern which looks like pushing the Lows south, squeezing HP out of the equation soon after. 

image.png

image.png

The thing is, the jet is not very strong like it was earlier in the summer so there must be a better chance of catching a break between Atlantic systems and allowing the Azores high to ridge NE and perhaps gain a foothold to enable a proper anticyclonic spell to develop..I note the experts offer a low chance of a prolonged warm settled spell around mid August..hope its sooner.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean shows a gradual descent into trough domination later next week from the NW but beyond that there is a change for the better across the south initially with the jet tilting more sw / ne which encourages the Azores high to build our way with more purpose, the charts through early August indicate increasingly warm and settled conditions across the uk which will hopefully be the case, what most of us are looking for is a good August..hope this is the trend.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z shows weak ridging across the south during the first half of next week so at least some fine and warm weather but certainly not guaranteed as there is a chance of showers too but things go downhill from midweek as lowering heights to the northwest flatten whats left of the ridge and it becomes more unsettled, and cooler too although the worst of it is further north.

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ecm500.168.png

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ecmt850.144.png

ecmt850.168.png

ecmt850.240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
1 hour ago, Karl. said:

The thing is, the jet is not very strong like it was earlier in the summer so there must be a better chance of catching a break between Atlantic systems and allowing the Azores high to ridge NE and perhaps gain a foothold to enable a proper anticyclonic spell to develop..I note the experts offer a low chance of a prolonged warm settled spell around mid August..hope its sooner.

True.... if this chart were to hold we would all be smiling:) The signs seem to indicate this would be of short promise though. Maybe looking for an apple when really there's only a banana in terms of the general pattern. 

image.png

Edited by Matthew Wilson
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
7 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Maybe looking for an apple when really there's only a banana in terms of the general pattern. 

 

I managed to pick some nice cherries on tonight's GEFS 12z mean, if it's on to something, the first half of August would become summery with the Azores high building in strongly.:D

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Tamara - your posting from 19th July has very much been in my thinking since about yesterday lunchtime. More and more, the Azores High looks to be taking a break between D6 and D9.

I am encouraged that ensemble output that I can see generally supports a fresh surge from the Azores High afterwards (and with main troughing perhaps further away from us, with an even more positive result than before) - but I've seen many instances where the promised rebuild of pressure fades into something less positive - I think we want to see the pressure up to 1025mb on the majority of those ensembles before confidence can grow in a better first week of August.

Still, good weather for many during the first part of this week. It's reached 26C or more for 8 consecutive days, not entirely unlikely that it could be 25C over 12 consecutive days before the northerly stuff bites??

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

The turn of the month could see some low overnight temps. A marked improvement by day though especially with the Azores high potentially moving in:) In fact going by my simple methods August could well start very well after a poor end to July. 

image.png

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Tonight's anomalies show no significant change within 14 days. The trough still the dominant feature although it does weaken late on. This doesn't mean perpetual rain and gales as within the period there will the usual LP/HP waxing and waning so probably plenty of sunny periods particularly the SE segment of the UK as much of the inclement weather should track NE, Temps certainly cool in the middle period but picking up by the end.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png610day.03.gif

814day.03.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Tonight's anomalies show no significant change within 14 days. The trough still the dominant feature although it does weaken late on. This doesn't mean perpetual rain and gales as within the period there will the usual LP/HP waxing and waning so probably plenty of sunny periods particularly the SE segment of the UK as much of the inclement weather should track NE, Temps certainly cool in the middle period but picking up by the end.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png610day.03.gif

814day.03.gif

Signs of hope from the GEFS 12z mean though, perhaps not a completely depressing outlook after all. : - )

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