Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Ouch, think you need to admit you were wrong on this occasion. GFS shows the jet stream being well to the north of the UK for most of the run in between the UK and Iceland.

I don't have a problem admitting I'm wrong when I am wrong. Every day out to T198 has the jet running over the UK and then it splits..In any case I merely asked Karl whether he was thinking of any particular day for his original comment and he has since posted two charts. And if a simple polite question is going to cause such a silly fuss you can stick the thread.

[William Grimsley]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

I don't have a problem admitting I'm wrong when I am wrong. Every day out to T198 has the jet running over the UK and then it splits..In any case I merely asked Karl whether he was thinking of any particular day for his original comment and he has since posted two charts. And if a simple polite question is going to cause such a silly fuss you can stick the thread.

Not causing a silly fuss, I am simply stating the facts that have been presented to you on this thread.

Anyway, back on topic...

[Mark wheeler]

Knocker firstly I'm happy you contribute to this thread and hope you carry on doing so.I'm far from being an expert but sometimes your posts have a stamp of authority and a sense of this is right and can be sarcastic in nature. I can see both sides as I accept and see where your coming from but sometimes the style seems provocative . Maybe I'm wrong but all good for the forum in a way I guess as we all have our niches.

Edited July 17, 2016 by Mark wheeler

[Nouska]

30 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Ouch, think you need to admit you were wrong on this occasion. GFS shows the jet stream being well to the north of the UK for most of the run in between the UK and Iceland.

Anyway, whatever your post shows is not really what I'd call a jetstream, it's barely got any strength!

It depends on what you are looking at but Knocker is not wrong when you look at the mean and individual ensemble members. The op is good but it is only one run.

144      216

A snapshot at 144 hours and 216 hours.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=3&ech=216

An edit following Karl's post - the bottom right charts are the op - more correctly called deterministic.

Edited July 17, 2016 by Nouska

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

I don't have a problem admitting I'm wrong when I am wrong. Every day out to T198 has the jet running over the UK and then it splits..In any case I merely asked Karl whether he was thinking of any particular day for his original comment and he has since posted two charts. And if a simple polite question is going to cause such a silly fuss you can stick the thread.

Knocker, chill out, you said I was wrong about the jetstream on the Gfs 12z and I think I have the right to defend my post, and I was right anyway and a few others also commented on the jetstream being pushed well north of the uk..hope that clears things up and hope the rest of July is Azores dominated too!

[A.J]

calm down children.........point scoring of this ilk is nursery school stuff............thank you

[William Grimsley]

2 minutes ago, Nouska said:

It depends on what you are looking at but Knocker is not wrong when you look at the mean and individual ensemble members. The op is good but it is only one run.

144      216

A snapshot at 144 hours and 216 hours.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=3&ech=216

Oh, ensembles now! Now it makes sense, apologies knocker!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

calm down children.........point scoring of this ilk is nursery school stuff............thank you

It's about getting the facts right aj, I set the record straight based on the Gfs 12z op.

[A.J]

Just now, Karl. said:

It's about getting the facts right aj, I set the record straight based on the Gfs 12z op.

it's also called point scoring and not just getting facts right, reading the posts and they way they are written shows this clearly.....I wasn't born yesterday!..........so friendly debate and discussion please for everyone, debate yes, snide/sneaky/sarcastic remarks, no

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Oh, ensembles now! Now it makes sense, apologies knocker!

We were talking about the Gfs 12z op, not the ens mean.

No need to apologise.

[mb018538]

ECM is a bit of a mess tonight compared to the GFS evolution....hoping the gfs outcome is nearer the mark!

[William Grimsley]

3 minutes ago, Karl. said:

We were talking about the Gfs 12z op, not the ens mean.

No need to apologise.

Suppose not, but I try to make everyone feel happy.

As I said, a stunning run, let's just hope it's not "storm porn" and see if it comes to fruition!

[William of Walworth]

Liking the more than reasonable chances on some recent runs of summer-based conditions dominating for a while. One of the last charts I saw before I went a\way last Thursday had a horrible trough based outlook for the w/e of Sat 30th July. This looking less likely now, but we do need more consensus between sources, sustained over several more runs.

Edited July 17, 2016 by William of Walworth

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows the spanish plume is almost upon us so let's enjoy the first half of the week ahead, tomorrow looks very warm with 30c for parts of the s / se and generally 25/28c but cooler for scotland with rain across the far north.  Tuesday is the main day for heat and humidity when a few spots could reach 34c 93f and generally 30-31c across most of England and Wales, even scotland looks like reaching the mid to upper 20's c and tues night could be a record warm night for some areas and following such a warm night, wed looks like becoming hot too. There will be plenty of sunshine tomorrow and tuesday with just the outside chance of an isolated storm but tues night and into wed look like bringing a thundery breakdown but again, some parts will be sunny, especially eastern, central and southern / southeast england. Later in the week it cools and becomes less humid but stays warm and a weak Azores ridge builds into the south next weekend bringing fine and warm weather, a shallow showery trough follows for a day or so but the run ends with another Azores ridge building into the south so for the southern half of the uk it's a summery outlook but northern uk looks more changeable and not as warm but with some warm and fine days too. 

Edited July 17, 2016 by Karl.

[Polar Maritime]

Max temps/humidity with high cape values next week from the NetWx-MR Model.

Edited July 17, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Man With Beard]

37 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Max temps/humidity with high cape values next week from the NetWx-MR Model.

PM - notice that 30C in Devon too - I wonder if the north Devon/Somerset coast might be the dark horse here - the latest EURO4 has uppers of 21C in that area as early as lunchtime on Tuesday! Add a Fohn effect as winds come down from Exmoor...

[Allseasons-Si]

Not been in here for a while but come on guys

we have a nice Spanish plume this week and all i see is bickering at each other,we are a friendly bunch in here so lighten up,what more do we want ay,just enjoy the upcoming spell of warm/hot weather that is upon us

it is the same in winter(when is it going to snow imby),

we cannot change the weather,so don't let it change you

back on topic,not been on the pc in a while so had to read a lot of post's of which took some time to catch up but i do recall that this was a warm snap but looking at the latest models it does show that this warm/hot spell might continue

i for one is enjoying this upcoming spell of warm/hot weather and may it continue

stay friendly

I would just like to add(not creeping) that Karl,knocker,John holmes and a few add to the dexterity to this thread and go to there depths of explaining what the weather will be like(almost),keep it up guys.

Edited July 17, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[stevofunnelcl]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

PM - notice that 30C in Devon too - I wonder if the north Devon/Somerset coast might be the dark horse here - the latest EURO4 has uppers of 21C in that area as early as lunchtime on Tuesday! Add a Fohn effect as winds come down from Exmoor...

Certainly not used to temperatures that high around these parts, usually the sea breeze would kick in.

I may climb into my oven, it could be cooler in there

[simshady]

Looks like the toys and pram don't just appear in winter! Can people just stick to model discussion without the arguments and tantrums please?

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z is still under cooking the max temps for this plume, parts of England will reach 30/31c 87f today, London being favoured but widely 26/29c with dry and sunny weather for many, just an isolated storm later, cooler and cloudier for northern UK with rain in the far north. Tonight and tomorrow night looks very warm and humid with minima around 19/21c then tomorrow's a scorcher, widely 30/32c and locally 34/35c 95f..27c across Scotland.Thunderstorms become more widespread across the west and north tomorrow evening and overnight into midweek but most of the south / southeast could miss them and have a dry and sunny wednesday with temps around 29/30c 85f.. enjoy the mini heatwave. :- )

[coldcomfort]

Without question the biggest cause of arguments and bickering in this thread is when anyone dares mention either cold breaking down in Winter or heat breaking down in Summer, in fact even the word breakdown itself tends to cause backs to rise in many. It really is time folk learnt to accept this is a model discussion thread, where we should discuss what the models are showing and if that happens to be a breakdown, then those who mention it deserve not to be attacked for so doing.  

On that point a change to significantly cooler air looks on the cards for all after midweek and if ECM is to be believed the weekend will see a return to trough domination and a rather cool, showery mix in general for next week. As as often been the case of late GFS is not quite so negative, but even it suggests the heat and humidity of the coming few days will become a distant memory from Friday, with a much cooler Atlantic flow predominating....ditto UKMO at T+144hrs.

Bottom line here is the setup some of us were talking about a few days ago re the 10-14 day period is still pretty much the same. Despite the near term heat there is no real pattern change, indeed there was never likely to be any real pattern change, this is in reality a welcome blip - nothing more, nothing less. Probably best to enjoy it and just accept it's neither here to stay or likely to return anytime soon....ultimately it will be much better for the blood pressure!

 

 

 

Edited July 18, 2016 by coldcomfort

[carinthian]

10 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Without question the biggest cause of arguments and bickering in this thread is when anyone dares mention either cold breaking down in Winter or heat breaking down in Summer, in fact even the word breakdown itself tends to cause backs to rise in many. It really is time folk learnt to accept this is a model discussion thread, where we should discuss what the models are showing and if that happens to be a breakdown, then those who mention it deserve not to be attacked for so doing.  

On that point a change to significantly cooler air looks on the cards for all after midweek and if ECM is to be believed the weekend will see a return to trough domination and a rather cool, showery mix in general for next week. As as often been the case of late GFS is not quite so negative, but even it suggests the heat and humidity of the coming few days will become a distant memory from Friday, with a much cooler Atlantic flow predominating....ditto UKMO at T+144hrs.

Bottom line here is the setup some of us were talking about a few days ago re the 10-14 day period is still pretty much the same. Despite the near term heat there is no real pattern change, indeed there was never likely to be any real pattern change, this is in reality a welcome blip - nothing more, nothing less. Probably best to enjoy it and just accept it's neither here to stay or likely to return anytime soon....ultimately it will be much better for the blood pressure!

 

 

 

Good Reply CC. Really sums up the weather for the British Isles. Its maritime location is placed for the  extremes of heat or cold to short lived with onlt a few exceptional spells of this type. However, I can understand the frustration of many who desire a nice summer spell to last than more than a couple of days. The heat is so tantalizing close at times on continent Europe for only the British Isles to be draped in cloud , wind and rain at times. . As regards the models , this time last week showed no 30C spell to start this week over you, so things can change quickly as we know but as you report the longer term trend continues with your unsettled summer.

[Summer Sun]

After a few unsettled days UKMO shows high pressure rebuilding for the weekend

[northwestsnow]

Plenty of fine warm weather to be had in the reliable timeframe, models wanting to build heights across Greenland in the mid to longer term which might spell troughsville again and that would tie in with the meto update yesterday, the hope must be that any developing -NAO will be west based as per bluearmys post yesterday ..

[mb018538]

Perhaps looking a bit iffy except for the ukmo run today....trough slowly influencing things here, with high pressure developing over Greenland again. Hopefully UKMO is nearer the mark!