Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Firstly highly commendable that you have gone to the trouble and effort to do this but one observation that springs to mind is taking a specific location really representative? By this I mean if you used two other locations, say the north of Scotland and south east England would the results be the same? This is not a criticism because I think this sort of comparison is extremely complex and difficult. Ideally one would probably need two or three time frames as well.

Thanks Knocker (and JH). Completely agree. Hopefully I (and maybe others?) will be able to cover more scope in future months, if the community on here think it is genuinely useful.

[Frosty.]

That was a good Gfs 6z op run there until almost the end, plenty of Azores high ridging, especially across the south limiting any unsettled weather further south and warming up across the south in particular with low to mid 20's celsius becoming more common with a good deal of fine and warm weather across the southern half of the uk...a good run.

[cheeky_monkey]

50 minutes ago, Karl. said:

That was a good Gfs 6z op run there until almost the end, plenty of Azores high ridging, especially across the south limiting any unsettled weather further south and warming up across the south in particular with low to mid 20's celsius becoming more common with a good deal of fine and warm weather across the southern half of the uk...a good run.

For me these are near perfect summer synoptics for the southern half of the UK. Dry and warm but not too hot light breezes and no high humidity..ECM goes for something hot humid and thundery early next week.

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

For me these are near perfect summer synoptics for the southern half of the UK. Dry and warm but not too hot light breezes and no high humidity..ECM goes for something hot humid and thundery early next week.

Agreed, nothing wrong with that 6z run, it would bring the best weather of the summer across the south of the UK with the Azores high building in and rebuilding again...no major heat but very pleasant indeed with low to mid 20's c. : - )

[B87]

10 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Agreed, nothing wrong with that 6z run, it would bring the best weather of the summer across the south of the UK with the Azores high building in and rebuilding again...no major heat but very pleasant indeed with low to mid 20's c. : - )

Would like to see a 'warm spell' bring something a bit better than just average, though.  Is there any sign that we might get some proper heat, or has that disappeared now?

[northwestsnow]

3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Re the gefs upper trough - the extended eps are pretty dire with an upper trough becoming established in the 10/15 day period aswell. Mid Atlantic upper ridge in association with development of Greenland high anomoly.  not a great place to be for late July.  Make the most of next weeks heat ! (If it verifies)

Suprisingly the meto are still suggesting nothing resembling the above scenario blue- perhaps MOGREPS is less 'troughy'?

Its about time we had some luck, the amount of times ihave seen glorious Winter cold charts from NWP and meto say 'no' and the same in summer with 'warm' charts, perhaps we will get a suprise, my gawd we need some luck !!

Edited July 14, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, B87 said:

Would like to see a 'warm spell' bring something a bit better than just average, though.  Is there any sign that we might get some proper heat, or has that disappeared now?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the average max temp in the south about 21/22c at this time of year? If so....The Gfs 6z shows above average temps for most of the next two weeks across southern uk at least.

[B87]

Just now, Karl. said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the average max temp in the south about 21/22c at this time of year? If so....The Gfs 6z shows above average temps for most of the next two weeks across southern uk at least.

The average max temp in London for mid-late July is 24c.  Most of the models are showing 22-26c down here, so not much of a hot spell.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, B87 said:

The average max temp in London for mid-late July is 24c.  Most of the models are showing 22-26c down here, so not much of a hot spell.

Fair dinkum, thanks for correcting me.

[cheese]

19 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the average max temp in the south about 21/22c at this time of year? If so....The Gfs 6z shows above average temps for most of the next two weeks across southern uk at least.

No Frosty, the average max is 21C in places like Leeds and Wakefield in July. At London Heathrow it's 23.5C to be specific. 

Edited July 14, 2016 by cheese

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, cheese said:

No Frosty, the average max is 21C in places like Leeds and Wakefield in July. At London Heathrow it's 23.5C to be specific. 

Thanks cheese

[stodge]

Afternoon all

A lot of it has already been said it seems. The GFS 06Z OP is very reasonable for the south and indeed for other areas as well until well into low-res. The ridge from the Azores HP is persistent enough and strong enough to keep much of England and Wales in a settled flow. Yes, those wanting big heat and storms are going to be out of luck but around 25c in London is perfectly reasonable for the time of the year.

So far, so good. I'm less convinced looking at the ENS especially going toward the end of next week. To this observer, a majority of the members keep LP close to or over the British Isles with the Azores HP suppressed back to the Atlantic. Obviously, when the OP isn't supported by the members, it's something to take on board but GFS has been more bullish toward a continuation of a broadly settled regime than either ECM or GEM were this morning.

 

[B87]

26 minutes ago, cheese said:

No Frosty, the average max is 21C in places like Leeds and Wakefield in July. At London Heathrow it's 23.5C to be specific. 

It ranges from about 22.5c at the start of July, to 24.5c at the end of July, so these 22-26c days in late July are not a warm spell at all, they are just the normal conditions.

What would calm everyone down, would be a settled few weeks with highs of 25-32c or so.

[weatherguru14]

the average temp is nonsense in a sense that its taken over 20/30 year period..Ie you  could have colder julys..And Julys like 2006/2013 and 14 make up the over all average..So 5  july months are  between  17and 21c over all and July 2013 which had a very strong heatwave for almost the entire month.. Just becaue you expect London to have 23c for the month.. Doesnt mean it will happen that year. Just means a previous year was hotter than the average..

[johnholmes]

3 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Thanks Knocker (and JH). Completely agree. Hopefully I (and maybe others?) will be able to cover more scope in future months, if the community on here think it is genuinely useful.

Providing you state where you are checking for then I see nothing wrong in choosing a central location, you chose Birmingham. To start doing, as has been suggested, will make it even more time consuming and complex. If you can show charts for the time you are checking then folk can do their own work for the area most interesting to them?

I would stick with an overall assessment much as you have already done, that is unless you find you have a lot of time.

You questioned if folk would be interested, I would have thought a lot would be very interested. No doubt you will get negative comments when you show something not hoped for but you will have to live with that.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

It ranges from about 22.5c at the start of July, to 24.5c at the end of July, so these 22-26c days in late July are not a warm spell at all, they are just the normal conditions.

What would calm everyone down, would be a settled few weeks with highs of 25-32c or so.

At which weather station is that 24.5C average taken from? I've never heard of anything nearly that high in the UK- I know the 1981-2010 average at Greenwich is 23.4C for July but that figure for late in the month does sound very high.

Edited July 14, 2016 by Scorcher

[Summer Sun]

Some large temperature variations on Monday mid 20's in the south, mid teens at best for parts of Scotland and a difference of around 8c between North East England and Cumbria

Edited July 14, 2016 by Summer Sun

[B87]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

At which weather station is that 24.5C average taken from? I've never heard of anything nearly that high in the UK- I know the 1981-2010 average at Greenwich is 23.4C for July but that figure for late in the month does sound very high.

The monthly average high for Heathrow and Kew is 23.5c, but that is for the month overall.  1st July averages about 22.5c, with 31st July around 24.5c.  The warmest part of the summer is the last week of July and the first week of August.

Edited July 14, 2016 by B87

[Scorcher]

Just now, B87 said:

The monthly average high for Heathrow and Kew is 23.5c, but that is for the month overall.  1st July averages about 22.5c, with 31st July around 24.5c.  The warmest part of the summer is the last week of July and the first week of August.

Have you got a link to a day by day set of averages for this? Would be interested to have a look.

[Summer Sun]

Has UKMO's update time changed? two days running now its not started updating around 17:00

[northwestsnow]

Well GFS12Z is pretty poor if you are north of say, the Midlands, just no escaping this Atlantic muck, for those further South, esp the South East its looking really good overall with some warm sun and respectable temps.

Classic north/south split seems likely in the short to medium term.

Longer term im hopeful of a change to benefit more of us as per meto update but i'm looking at that trough just south of Greenland at around the 174 h mark and wondering if thats got our name on it as well!!!!!!

Edited July 14, 2016 by northwestsnow

[B87]

5 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Have you got a link to a day by day set of averages for this? Would be interested to have a look.

It isn't publicly available as far as I'm aware, so I had to work it out manually using the figures from meteociel or tutiempo. Kind of embarrassing that we can't look up daily history on the MetO site.

The warmest day of the year is 31st July and 5-6th August, average high 24.6c, but if you average the last week of July and the first week of August you get 24.2c.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Very flat jet stream is all I'm anticipating, flattening any attempt of a plume advecting northwards. Painful watching indeed. 

[northwestsnow]

UKMO has update and it looks thunderytastic to me and quite different to GFS, 96 and 120 charts look very warm and humid, 144 looks like the heat might go out with a bang.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO on meteociel hasn't updated yet but it has on wetterzentral not a great deal of difference at t144 from this morning to now

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