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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z op run gives us something to look forward to later next week including the weekend into the early part of week 2 with high pressure building in with plenty of sunshine and becoming warmer with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius...looks good and who knows, the reality could be even better :-)

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ukmaxtemp (3).png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
12 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Must be looking at different charts....They are shocking for heat....The ECM is trough trough trough.....and we move into late July

 

 

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Are you ignoring the warm spell later next week that the models are showing ? Looks like next weekend will be warm and sunny with potential to become very warm for a while, even the met office see very warm potential. :-)

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Here you go Frosty an anticyclone as promised.

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_27.png

But you had to show a midnight chart didn't you:D

Day times look very pleasant next weekend

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12_171_mslp500.png

12_195_mslp500.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gem 12z shows high pressure building in late next week and as the high migrates to the NE we draw warmer and more humid air up from the near continent with mid 20s celsius becoming quite widespread but also an increasing chance of thundery showers breaking out between very warm spells of sunshine.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
24 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

But you had to show a midnight chart didn't you:D

Day times look very pleasant next weekend

 

 

Well smack my wrists. Here's the 18z :shok:

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_30.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
59 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Must be looking at different charts....They are shocking for heat....The ECM is trough trough trough.....and we move into late July

 

 

image.png

No, you are looking at charts from a different time slot from Frosty, as is plain. He is referring to a later time frame.

Given that you must know this, I really question the motivation of those posters that seek to mislead people as to what the models are showing. Why do you do it? 

Edited by Weather Boy
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well smack my wrists. Here's the 18z :shok:

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_30.png

That's more like it Malcolm, show some daytime warmth instead of the middle of a cool night.:good:

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

gfs 12z is looking hot next weekend as we get a taste of the Continental climate and into the following week too. Still plenty of time for it to evolve into something better, I will contain any excitement for a few more runs as most of the heat will probably end up being shunted off eastwards .  The Azores HP cant give up though I just hope it keeps on nudging northwards until it pushes the current pattern out of place.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
22 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

No, you are looking at charts from a different time slot from Frosty, as is plain. He is referring to a later time frame.

Given that you must know this, I really question the motivation of those posters that seek to mislead people as to what the models are showing. Why do you do it? 

Well said Weather Boy :- )

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Sticking to the reliable time-frame ECM shows high pressure moving in towards the end of next week

00z

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12z

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A nice improvement on the 00z :)

 

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Some differences between the models around day 5 at the moment, seems to be a recurring trend.

GFS/UKMO/ECM

gfs-0-120.png?12   UW120-21.GIF?09-19   ECM1-120.GIF?09-0

The UKMO really makes a lot of that cold pool to our north causing the Azores ridge to really struggle to build in, the GFS is similar to the ECM but the ECM shows a much better set up to really build the ridge into the UK compared to the GFS as there is interaction between the Atlantic trough and the cold pooling to our north which allows the jet to drive north east and importantly north of the UK. The GFS doesn't have this interaction and hence is slower to build the high in.

Day 6 charts

gfs-0-144.png?12   UW144-21.GIF?09-19   ECM1-144.GIF?09-0

The GFS is still pretty cool with a light north/north westerly, the UKMO looks pretty meh but the ECM is fine, sunny and increasingly warm for most away from the far north west. I would say that the GFS and ECM hold promise for something a little more than a brief warmer and drier spell.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Much better from ECM in the reliable time-frame this evening

 

Recm1441 12.gif

Hello high pressure :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Why was it?

Because you ignored the warm spell the op runs and ens mean is showing later next week into week 2...why?

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

image.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Because in the reliable as Winter people are told to keep to its trough nothing great an only do we see something warm in the realms of fi...you Frosty should realise that...lots of straw clutching going on in this thread at moment for heat.

There is no straw clutching from me, the models show a warm up and high pressure in under a week which is semi reliable timeframe, to ignore that completely is very misleading.

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

The winter crew think they are justified in looking for a snowflake at T+eternity so I reckon the summer crew can look a few days ahead for warmth: not a lot to ask for considering what has been so far.

There is very little in the way of above average 850 temps showing anyway but even average will feel like a heatwave after midweek!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

If ECM is correct next weekend will be settled and becoming increasingly warm

Recm1682.gif

Remember you don't need excessively high 850's to get temperatures into the mid 20's they'll respond very nicely if its sunny

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think the Ecm 12z would bring temps into the  low 80's F across the s / se at the end of next week...anyway, nice warm charts..:D

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Here's the GEFS 12z mean for late next week including the weekend, we would see temps into the mid 20's celsius across the south of the UK. High pressure and warmth for a change! :- )

Very good agreement across the models for summery weather beyond the upcoming but short-lived cooler showery blip.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Reliable looks average

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It's ok Greenland, you keep showing the worst charts and deny anything warmer is coming..:closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

I'm just quoting the reliable timeframe that's all

GFS reliable looks average

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And a few days later it's warm and settled with low to mid 20s celsius..can't wait.

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