Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Wildswimmer Pete]

A whole week without any green snot anywhere near the UK.  Hallelujah!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

A whole week without any green snot anywhere near the UK.  Hallelujah!

What a pleasant change, next week should feel like July instead of late September  I think it will turn out warmer for the south than the BBC are currently forecasting next week (21 / 22c) but if the Ecm is right, raise that to 24 / 26c in the warmest spots further south during the 2nd half of next week. The S / SE of the UK looks drier next week under higher pressure but more unsettled, breezier and relatively cooler across the northwest corner of the BI with that unsettled weather eventually spreading S / E to remaining parts by the end of next week or early week 2.

[knocker]

Still no sign this evening  of any pattern change in the next 14 days. Low pressure over the Pole and ridge Alaska and the twin troughs Scandinavia and the Atlantic later merging into one. Ergo a continuation of the unsettled westerly regime with temps around average or a little below.

Edited July 2, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z op run shows a warm up next week, especially further south, comfortably into the low 20s celsius with some favoured spots closer to the mid 20s c for a time through the 2nd half of next week, becoming more humid too. Becoming much drier and brighter across the southern half of the UK next week too as a ridge of high pressure drifts across from the west and then declines SE late next week with the more unsettled weather further to the northwest, eventually spreading to all areas. Further into Fi, it's changeable with temps slightly up and down, the south even flirts with some warmth from France but as for next week, it's noticeably drier and warmer than the last week or so, at least for most of England and wales.

[knocker]

Well pretty dry and pleasant for the next 24 hours before a small perturbation moves through tomorrow. Then brief ridging mid week which should bring a couple of days of drier weather, albeit no great shake temperature wise, but quite pleasant before fronts move in on Friday. The main depression associated with these is now slow moving and tracking to the north west. But it then turns easterly so until the middle of next week the UK will be in a W/NW unsettled airstream bringing along a number of showers I would imagine.

 

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well pretty dry and pleasant for the next 24 hours before a small perturbation moves through tomorrow. Then brief ridging mid week which should bring a couple of days of drier weather, albeit no great shake temperature wise, but quite pleasant before fronts move in on Friday. The main depression associated with these is now slow moving and tracking to the north west. But it then turns easterly so until the middle of next week the UK will be in a W/NW unsettled airstream bringing along a number of showers I would imagine.

 

Yes it's looking good during the week ahead as a ridge builds in, becoming drier, brighter and warmer, more humid too, at least across southern Britain with temps around 21/23c 72f...much better than recently :- )

[Frosty.]

Much better than the last week which was unsettled and unseasonably cool, becoming drier, brighter and warmer during the week ahead according to the gfs / ecm / ukmo & gem 00z, especially further south with temps back into the 70's F where they should be in july!

[Matthew.]

Wednesday and Thursday look very good hopefully we can get them mb climbing and sunshine widespread also. A small snapshot of what weather is like under the Azores High.

[knocker]

No big surprise that the ecm differs from the GFS. It has the front moving in on Thursday and it also handles the main depression differently. At Friday 00z sees it mid Atlantic and it then tracks it NE to have the centre just west of Ireland by Sunday 00z although by this time it is filling as it turns north.

Edited July 3, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Gfs is much better than the euro for the coming week, the bbc text for the week ahead is not great for manchester - sunshine and showers, and by the looks of it plenty of cloud!!

 

[Summer Sun]

A decent week coming up with less in the way of rain and more in the way of warmth

Next weekend doesn't look as good with GFS, GEM and ECM all agreeing on a deep low coming across the Atlantic what its exact track will be remains to be seen

UKMO at t144

We may get lucky and see it track north of Scotland or knowing the UK's luck it will head straight for us...

Not worrying on that much yet its nice to see a week of temps back in the low 20's and not mid teens!

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A decent week coming up with less in the way of rain and more in the way of warmth

Next weekend doesn't look as good with GFS, GEM and ECM all agreeing on a deep low coming across the Atlantic what its exact track will be remains to be seen

UKMO at t144

We may get lucky and see it track north of Scotland or knowing the UK's luck it will head straight for us...

Not worrying on that much yet its nice to see a week of temps back in the low 20's and not mid teens!

Yes Gavin, the last week was autumnal, the week ahead its summer again, no complaints.. today looks good too! :- )

[northwestsnow]

41 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes Gavin, the last week was autumnal, the week ahead its summer again, no complaints.. today looks good too! :- )

It looks much better for the south and east Frosty but the flow looks mainly from a west/south west quadrant so bitter experience tells me its not going to be great for western Britain,hence the mediocre bbc text for manchester

[Frosty.]

35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It looks much better for the south and east Frosty

Agreed, will be nice to see summer return after a thoroughly autumnal week

[Bolt from the Blue]

would the transition from El Nino to La Nina be responsible for the change in the poition of the jet stream?

[Gordon Webb]

7 minutes ago, AIRMET said:

would the transition from El Nino to La Nina be responsible for the change in the poition of the jet stream?

don't know about that all i know is after brexit it's the only thing staying in the uk

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

don't know about that all i know is after brexit it's the only thing staying in the uk

It should improve once Article 50 is activated 

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please only discuss what the 'Model Ouputs' are showing in here, 1000s of members expect to log in to this thread to read/learn on what the models are showing. There are threads open for general chit-chat and the likes above.

Many Thanks, Please continue.

[knocker]

6 hours ago, AIRMET said:

would the transition from El Nino to La Nina be responsible for the change in the poition of the jet stream?

The position and strength of the jet stream is determined by the atmospheric circulation and hence where surface low and high pressures reside.and this is influenced by many factors so no it wouldn't be correct to say that

Edited July 3, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

The anomalies this morning show little respite from the unsettled weather in the next 14 days. The low pressure remains firmly entrenched in the Iceland area thus ensuring a continuation of the westerly upper flow and temps around average. Of course there will be day to day variations within this pattern. There is a suggestion towards the end of the EPS of heights building to the  SE as the trough weakens so hope springs eternal

[Polar Maritime]

The 6z certainly shows High Pressure trying to nudge in from the South next weekend, With temps back to around average possibly touching 23/24c for some parts with showers possible for the South but not exclusively.. Into Wk2 and a slack Northerly moves South.

 

Edited July 3, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows the ridge in the week ahead and further on looks encouraging for the second half of July with the Azores high more influential and a good chance of a warm spell evolving. 

[Frosty.]

Don't give up on a warm / very warm / hot spell developing during the second half of July. The Gefs 6z mean shows support for a warm spell as there are some peachy perturbations scattered throughout, a few hot spanish plumes too so don't give up..keep dreaming that this poor summer will dramatically improve before August! P18 anyone?

Edited July 3, 2016 by Frosty.

[Matthew.]

49 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Don't give up on a warm / very warm / hot spell developing during the second half of July. The Gefs 6z mean shows support for a warm spell as there are some peachy perturbations scattered throughout, a few hot spanish plumes too so don't give up..keep dreaming that this poor summer will dramatically improve before August! P18 anyone?

 

Yes Frosty would love to see this! When Knockers on your side too i think we'll be in the money. I might frame that chart, a nice one for the living room

[markyo]

15 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes Frosty would love to see this! When Knockers on your side too i think we'll be in the money. I might frame that chart, a nice one for the living room

I would hang fire a bit longer,charts looking good for those after that heat as with winter charts showing cold have a habit of doing a vanishing act! Just need a firming up and cross model support to really have any chance of them coming off.