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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016


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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Again for the 3rd time today can we please only discuss what the the 'Model Outputs' are showing and leave chit chat/bickering and off topic one liners to the pm system, Or if relevent to the Summer thread or posts will have start to go missing.

Many Thanks.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean shows an improvement across the south early next week with some fine pleasantly warm weather, as per the op and longer term, there are again signs that the trough influence will reduce with increasing support for the Azores high (ridge) to build our way :- ) 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

No real signs from the GEFS anomalies this evening of any major alteration to the upper air pattern of recent days. Still the low pressure over northern Canada/Greenland with associated trough in the eastern Atlantic. Ergo remaining unsettled with the usual caveat of a NW/SE split and temps probably a tad below average for the period.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z op shows a ridge of high pressure trying to build in early next week, certainly less trough influence so a reduction in showers and at least some fine weather around next week and feeling pleasant in the sun. It's not as bad as some of the recent output. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z op ends on an encouraging note with a ridge of high pressure becoming established and becoming warmer...not bad at all :D

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z op shows a ridge of high pressure trying to build in early next week, certainly less trough influence so a reduction in showers and at least some fine weather around next week and feeling pleasant in the sun. It's not as bad as some of the recent output. 

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Indeed so Frosty compared to a few days ago its a good deal better maybe some light at the end of the tunnel?

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Indeed so Frosty compared to a few days ago its a good better maybe some light at the end of the tunnel?

Fingers crossed Gavin, it's better than I expected, nice end to the Ecm 12z. :- )

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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden

The forecasts looks really humid and cold common Days/weeks in both GFS and ECMWF, low pressure continue to flow over atlantic without pauses so almost whole west europé has zero chances of any real warmth and longer time with sun

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
34 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

The forecasts looks really humid and cold common Days/weeks in both GFS and ECMWF, low pressure continue to flow over atlantic without pauses so almost whole west europé has zero chances of any real warmth and longer time with sun

Modeller ser battre ut an I gar och jag gillar Ecm 12z senare :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

No real slivers of light with the ecm and EPS ext and NOAA tonight.

The 6-10 sees the UK still in the clutches of the trough so still unsettled with temps depressed. Moving into the ext period no real change although the trough does weaken and the ecm has it more negatively tilted so the HP does become slightly more influential, certainly for the southern half of Britain and if, big if, this trend continues we could see the Azores ridge pushing NE portending some better weather.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.png610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

To be fair I would be incredibly surprised to see the 1st week of July pattern continuing. The coolness is unusual for early July it has to be said! Hopefully the models are laying it on a bit. If their not laying it on and it continues we may stray near the July of 1965:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Any glimmer of hope for an upturn from the trough dominated scenario in the latest EC32 means update keeping in mind it is the mean and not the full suite?

At first glance there are no signs of HP domination but things do a little better which of course aint difficult.

Following on from last nights EPS the upper trough continues to weaken after the 12th Although as previously stated HP doesn't take a strangle hold there are indications that the Azores HP to the SW will become more influential and although the flow is still in the westerly quadrant it will be predominantly anticyclonic. This is the situation until the end of July. The caveat to this is that low pressure remains to the NW so a N/S split still a possible scenario and there is always a danger of the trough reinvigorating itself. That said the signs at the moment are for a drier and more pleasant last two thirds of July with the temp varying around the average but anything is better than the current dross.

Back to the immediate and today we have rain moving east during day and with low pressure residing to the north an unsettled week in prospect.

ens_mean1hrprecip_43.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur2_17.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS this morning continues to show an unsettled N/Wly flow out into wk2, With periods of wet weather moving in off the Atlantic over the UK.a.pngb.pngc.png

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 00z mean shows the azores high ridging across the south from sunday and well into next week so there would be some fine and pleasantly warm weather, especially further south. It's really only the next 5 days that show much trough influence, beyond that it looks decent, at least across the south of the UK.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

As optimistic as GFS is the Euro and GEM don't really go with it..

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Although we still have low pressure over the Pole and the UK trough scenario on this mornings ecm there are signs that the trough is weakening. And looking in the EXT EPS this is the case and it also becomes more negatively tilted which allows the Azores ridge to briefly put it's head above the parapet before a very familiar westerly regime with LP to the NW and HP to the south west.

 

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z op shows unsettled weather for the next 4 / 5 days but then a ridge of High pressure builds in early next week with some fine and pleasantly warm weather, not completely dry but not a write off either with temps into the low 20's celsius, actually the southern half of the uk has plenty of pleasant temps in the high teens to around 20-21c but cooler further NW where it's more unsettled too. Another trough drifts over the UK by the end of next week with cyclonic sunshine and heavy showers followed by another ridge, it's the north of the UK which bears the brunt of the cool low pressure on this run.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

gfs 06z was a nightmare if your a warmth lover, temps for the Manchester area at around 17c right out to the end of its run. At this height of summer there should've been a decent 28c by now.  

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Anyway, the Gfs 6z wasn't horrible, not in the south of the uk anyway with some ridge influence bringing fine and pleasantly warm weather at times from early next week and temps into the low 20s c...much more unsettled and cooler across the northwest of the UK. 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A few posts have been hidden, Please stick to disscusing what the Model Outputs are showing in here only, And use the pm system or the Summer thread for general chit-chat.

Thanks, Please continue..

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean shows a ridge of high pressure extending across the south by early next week, nowhere near as unsettled as this week and especially further south with a spell of largely fine and pleasantly warm weather with temps into the low 20's celsius. So yes, this week is trough dominated with bands of rain spilling in off the Atlantic separated by sunshine and scattered heavy showers but from next week it looks better, the Azores high (ridge) does wax and wane but for the south its a mostly improving picture.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

The jetstream is forecast to have the UK firmly in its sights for at least the next 7-10 days so not likely to be any lengthy settled, calm periods until the second week of July perhaps.   Could change, of course, but we need the jet to move north!

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 6z mean shows a ridge of high pressure extending across the south by early next week, nowhere near as unsettled as this week and especially further south with a spell of largely fine and pleasantly warm weather with temps into the low 20's celsius. So yes, this week is trough dominated with bands of rain spilling in off the Atlantic separated by sunshine and scattered heavy showers but from next week it looks better, the Azores high (ridge) does wax and wane but for the south its a mostly improving picture.:)

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The huge area of Hp to the Sw has been relentless for a while now. I give up on this pattern Frosty unless the Azores high moves well Ne. Any chance you could move the Hp block to the Se instead and put the Lp to the Sw. Now that would change things for the better!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
11 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

The huge area of Hp to the Sw has been relentless for a while now. I give up on this pattern Frosty unless the Azores high moves well Ne. Any chance you could move the Hp block to the Se instead and put the Lp to the Sw. Now that would change things for the better!

Hi Matthew, 

I agree with you, there is nothing i would like more than for the Azores high to build strongly NE through the uk, migrate to the east and enable a hot air mass from southern Europe to drift north into the UK but for now I would just like to see an improvement next week as the GEFS 6z mean shows, at least for the south. Hope we see a full blown pattern change by around mid / late July or thereabouts. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
5 hours ago, 40*C said:

gfs 06z was a nightmare if your a warmth lover, temps for the Manchester area at around 17c right out to the end of its run. At this height of summer there should've been a decent 28c by now.  

Eh? 28C is sometimes our highest temperature, and there have been years when it hasn't been reached at all. We've already got close to that in Manchester though. In an average year you wouldn't really expect 28C here before July.

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