Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Weather Boy]

37 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, it's unsettled from start to finish with low pressure in control, never desperately cold though, the south should never be far from maxima of 20 celsius, give or take a degree or two but progressively cooler further n / nw :- )

That would be the same ECM mean that, only a week ago, was strongly indicating that the Azores High would be paying us a visit.  It was wrong.  Any particular reason to think that it's now right? 

Maybe the answer is that there is nothing out there to contradict it, although I don't remember there being many contradictions out there when it said the opposite previously.

Edited June 27, 2016 by Weather Boy
spelling error

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

That would be the same ECM mean that, only a week ago, was strongly indicating that the Azores High would be paying us a visit.  It was wrong.  Any particular reason to think that it's now right? 

Maybe the answer is that there is nothing out there to contradict it, although I don't remember there being many contradictions out there when it said the opposite previously.

Well I would consider that as the GEFs, ecm and NOAA anomalies have been consistent with the upper air analysis for a while now that would be my particular reason for saying that this is a reasonable percentage play.

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

That would be the same ECM mean that, only a week ago, was strongly indicating that the Azores High would be paying us a visit.  It was wrong.  Any particular reason to think that it's now right? 

Maybe the answer is that there is nothing out there to contradict it, although I don't remember there being many contradictions out there when it said the opposite previously.

Did I say it was right? All I'm doing is keeping people who want to know what the models are currently showing.. updated!

[Weather Boy]

27 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Did I say it was right? All I'm doing is keeping people who want to know what the models are currently showing.. updated!

Not a criticism at all of you, Frosty.  Just pointing out (perhaps the obvious) that the mean of the same model was totally wrong before.  It's a model discussion, so nothing wrong with what either of us wrote!

Cheers, WB

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Not a criticism at all of you, Frosty.  Just pointing out (perhaps the obvious) that the mean of the same model was totally wrong before.  It's a model discussion, so nothing wrong with what either of us wrote!

Cheers, WB

No problem Weather Boy, I'm just in a bad mood this morning.

[Chris.R]

 There hasn't been a day with a max below  17°C, or a night with a min below  12°C or month, and I doubt there will be either now. For my  location at least then it hasn't been that bad at all. Yes, a few rainy days but this is  Britain, it's what happens, get used to it. I would  hate to live in Spain, the same thing every day, boring.  Variety and  unpredictability is what the British weather is all about, and we should grasp it with both hands. The best thing about it is you never know what's around the corner. :-) 

[Frosty.]

These troughs are an effing nuisance ain't they..attracted to the UK like flies to dog doodo on the Gfs 6z op BUT it does look more settled for a time in the south early next week and the run ends with high pressure ridging in from the west so at least it's better than yesterday's equivalent poop fest!

[Daniel*]

Seen better, hopefully our friend Azores high can nudge this way been very absent. One wonders whether the rapid Arctic sea-ice melt may have a link with this not so cheery outlook, increasing risk of blocking patterns.

[Frosty_wsm]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 There hasn't been a day with a max below  17°C, or a night with a min below  12°C or month, and I doubt there will be either now. For my  location at least then it hasn't been that bad at all. Yes, a few rainy days but this is  Britain, it's what happens, get used to it. I would  hate to live in Spain, the same thing every day, boring.  Variety and  unpredictability is what the British weather is all about, and we should grasp it with both hands. The best thing about it is you never know what's around the corner. :-) 

Feel free to grab this current rubbish weather if  you like but I'd much rather grab days and days of clear blue skies, light winds and very warm /hot temperatures, after all it is summer! Yesterday was absolutely atrocious here and tomorrow is looking rubbish according to the models.

One can only hope the models start improving soon. 

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 There hasn't been a day with a max below  17°C, or a night with a min below  12°C or month, and I doubt there will be either now. For my  location at least then it hasn't been that bad at all. Yes, a few rainy days but this is  Britain, it's what happens, get used to it. I would  hate to live in Spain, the same thing every day, boring.  Variety and  unpredictability is what the British weather is all about, and we should grasp it with both hands. The best thing about it is you never know what's around the corner. :-) 

Well yes, variety is great and what our climate is known for. But June has just seen variations of the same crap theme nearly all month! Cloud, rain, showers and cool. Where's the sun and warmth?

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Cloud, rain, showers and cool. Where's the sun and warmth?

Mid July onwards..hopefully

[Frosty.]

I'm willing the Azores high to start ridging in towards mid July or sooner, again there are hints from the GEFS 6z mean that the trough domination will eventually weaken considerably with more chance for high pressure to gain the upper hand....I hope so, for this summer's sake!

[Frosty.]

Just as an example to show how the Gefs 6z mean improves as we go further into July, here are the mean charts for this week and then further ahead and they do show a gradual improvement over time. I'm hoping I will have the opportunity to post some fantastic mean charts in the not too distant future! :- )

[Chris.R]

41 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Well yes, variety is great and what our climate is known for. But June has just seen variations of the same crap theme nearly all month! Cloud, rain, showers and cool. Where's the sun and warmth?

 

41 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Well yes, variety is great and what our climate is known for. But June has just seen variations of the same crap theme nearly all month! Cloud, rain, showers and cool. Where's the sun and warmth?

 Well we can only talk about our own locations, and in my case June has been a very good month.  Almost constant sunshine for the first 15 days and no rain through that time following on from the last week of May.  Three days have exceeded 25°C,  and since the middle of May 70% of all days have exceeded 20°C. The point is therefore the variety is  not only in type but also distribution. It's interesting to hear the differing views of summer so far around the country. I wonder if that will continue.

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 

 Well we can only talk about our own locations, and in my case June has been a very good month.  Almost constant sunshine for the first 15 days and no rain through that time following on from the last week of May.  Three days have exceeded 25°C,  and since the middle of May 70% of all days have exceeded 20°C. The point is therefore the variety is  not only in type but also distribution. It's interesting to hear the differing views of summer so far around the country. I wonder if that will continue.

I would rather talk about the UK as a whole and I think it's fair to say it hasn't been a good summer so far in many parts of the uk and that won't be helped as we are now entering a cooler more unsettled phase with bouts of wind and rain interspersed with sunshine and heavy showers but I'm hopeful we will see a nationwide improvement from around mid July or hopefully sooner as the latest GEFS mean indicates..update ...met office still hinting at mid July pattern change to warm and more settled with a chance of very warm and humid thundery weather, at least in the south..please make it so. 

[Bristawl Si]

7 hours ago, Frosty. said:

At last there are hints from the Gefs 00z mean that the Azores high will become more influential towards mid July which is interesting because it's around mid July when the met office say there is a possibility of the weather becoming more settled and warmer from there..and the models are almost in that range now! :- )

 

 

There have been "hints" for last few weeks i reckon. Keeps getting put back. A bit like cold/snow "hints" in Winter.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

There have been "hints" for last few weeks i reckon. Keeps getting put back. A bit like cold/snow "hints" in Winter.

I'm just looking for a pattern change like the majority on here and I'm picking up on some encouraging hints for the run up to mid July. I will keep an eye on the mean as its run now reaches 13th July so we will soon find out if the met office hints at a change to generally summery weather is likely or not. :- )

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I dont see anything positive in them charts, all i see is straw clutching.

[Summer Sun]

Maybe something drier starting to develop in the south during the weekend as pressure rises over France and moves north

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, 40*C said:

I dont see anything positive in them charts, all i see is straw clutching.

 

8 minutes ago, 40*C said:

 

I'm just reporting it as I see it, don't think that's straw clutching.

[markyo]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

 

I'm just reporting it as I see it, don't think that's straw clutching.

Very much agree,it's not straw clutching,could be a hint of a change but next 5/7 days will firm it up,the models may be starting to slightly align but early days. But then again it could all prove the opposite as so often,but as like in winter everybody should enjoy the chase of their preference and not be criticised for this!!

[Summer Sun]

A better run from GFS with high pressure starting to get closer by ok no heatwave but its better than we'll be seeing at times this week!

Ok this is D10 I know but it shows an improvement on the 06z

Some light at the end of the tunnel? who knows but as D:ream- sang Things can only get better

Edited June 27, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, markyo said:

everybody should enjoy the chase of their preference and not be criticised for this!!

Exactly, I have been accused of misleading, hopecasting etc and the criticism hurts because it's my love of the weather that brought me to netweather and it would be a shame if the critical comments  make me call it a day :- )

[markyo]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Exactly, I have been accused of misleading, hopecasting etc and the criticism hurts because it's my love of the weather that brought me to netweather and it would be a shame if the critical comments  make me call it a day :- )

What ever you do don't do that frosty,its small mined people who can't accept a individuals enjoyment of the weather,either it be hot old cold.Banter yep thats fine,but crossing the line to having a go due to someones opinion and enjoyment is out of order. Long may you remain!!

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, markyo said:

What ever you do don't do that frosty,its small mined people who can't accept a individuals enjoyment of the weather,either it be hot old cold.Banter yep thats fine,but crossing the line to having a go due to someones opinion and enjoyment is out of order. Long may you remain!!

Thanks Markyo, much appreciated