Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies continue to show no respite from unsettled for the next 14 days.

 

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

The GEFS anomalies continue to show no respite from unsettled for the next 14 days.

 

Didn't I just say the same thing, above yours

[Frosty.]

This is going to be the low point of the summer so far coming up in the next 10 days + in more ways than one. The Ecm 12z out to T+216 hours looks changeable / unsettled and trough dominated with temperatures nothing to write home about as Michael fish would say...

[Frosty.]

Was the Ecm 12z @ T+240 worth waiting for I hear you ask.?..Drum roll...  Nope

[Nick F]

Not posted in here for a while, as been lurking in the convective threads given the thunderiest June I can remember in my 40 years. But, my goodness, whatever happened to high pressure blocks in high summer that used to bring a week or a few weeks of fine settled weather? OK, I don't expect them every summer, but can't remember the last time we experienced them, recent summers seems to be dominated by cyclonic westerlies.

The 00z extended EPS H500 mean showed a trough over the UK throughout to day 15, the current 12z GEFS H500 mean through to day 15 does, so expect the 12z EPS will do too. The weather is certainly reflecting the political mood of the country for now! But with 2 months of summer left and September, if you except the shorter days, plenty of time yet I guess...

Edited June 26, 2016 by Nick F

[knocker]

And no change with the 12z or NOAA

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean paints a changeable / unsettled picture for the next 10 days plus with temperatures average at best and cool during the most unsettled conditions. A year ago almost to the day we were building up to a hot spanish plume event with temps in the 33-37c range but most of us look like being in the mid to upper teens celsius for most of the time apart from tomorrow when it looks largely fine and pleasantly warm in the south / southeast at 22c.

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Are you serious? I've never actually heard you predict a warm summer...and I'm pretty sure you were a long way wide of the mark regarding winter. If you predict something enough, you will eventually be right.

Ok.....Go back and read my posts from 2,3 months back. I said repeatedly I expected a warm late spring and poss into June before a deterioration further in to summer. The posts are there somewhere...go find them. I can't be bothered arguing but just as some repeatedly said that a warm nino winter was odds on, I felt the same about summer coming off the back of such a strong nino. It was black and white for me. Just a shame you have to feel the need to ridicule those who happen to want to share their thoughts and take the time to at least try and explain why in even a simple fashion. 

Personally, (and some people really haven't grasped this), it makes little odds to me whether it's warm, cold, wet or dry. I merely say how I see it, yet some people tend to take offence to any prediction as if it were some personal attack to themselves. 

To make your argument even more devoid of any credibility, I predicted quite a good summer last year! So I don't always predict the same thing as some people would like to argue.

It's not even like I enjoy backslapping...I wouldn't even bring up the fact I called it had it not been for people like you who seem to want to launch a 'but you got it wrong X amount of times' style attack at the mere hint of a forecast which goes against your personal weather preferences. I highly doubt you'd have said a dickie bird had I been calling for a 1976 re-run!

Edited June 27, 2016 by Polar Maritime
No more on this matter please in here.

[knocker]

Not much to say about this week that is not already known. Unsettled with periods of rain passing though so some drier intervals and temps generally a little below average.

[Frosty.]

49 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not much to say about this week that is not already known. Unsettled with periods of rain passing though so some drier intervals and temps generally a little below average.

If you use that blue crayon in winter knocker, I will be very happy!

[knocker]

27 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

If you use that blue crayon in winter knocker, I will be very happy!

You'll be okay as I wont be around in this thread during the winter.

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

You'll be okay as I wont be around in this thread during the winter.

I was only joking malcolm, it's good natured banter...from me anyway so hope you do post in winter. :- )

[Woollymummy]

My woodshed is empty, thanks to persistent damp and having to stop the kids from getting chills after being drenched. My husband laughed at me when I said I was going to order another load of wood for the rest of June and July, but he will have to admit I am being wise soon.

[northwestsnow]

Well looking more and more like the first half of summer is going to be pretty much a write off for any protracted settled warm weather looking at all the data to hand.

To quote The smiths, 'that joke isn't funny anymore', i wonder if they could see into the future and were referring to British summers...

WTF is causing virtually EVERY single trough in the NH to beeline for the UK? I think Nick F was musing yesterday along these lines.

ECM day TEN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Yes its day 10 but believe me there is little to get excited about prior to that and look whats coming next, ANOTHER god damn trough.

Rest of Europe must LOVE these UK troughs as virtually the whole of mainland Europe has been scorching for weeks , apart from maybe northern parts of France

 

[Frosty.]

At last there are hints from the Gefs 00z mean that the Azores high will become more influential towards mid July which is interesting because it's around mid July when the met office say there is a possibility of the weather becoming more settled and warmer from there..and the models are almost in that range now! :- )

Edited June 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[stainesbloke]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well looking more and more like the first half of summer is going to be pretty much a write off for any protracted settled warm weather looking at all the data to hand.

To quote The smiths, 'that joke isn't funny anymore', i wonder if they could see into the future and were referring to British summers...

WTF is causing virtually EVERY single trough in the NH to beeline for the UK? I think Nick F was musing yesterday along these lines.

ECM day TEN http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Yes its day 10 but believe me there is little to get excited about prior to that and look whats coming next, ANOTHER god damn trough.

Rest of Europe must LOVE these UK troughs as virtually the whole of mainland Europe has been scorching for weeks , apart from maybe northern parts of France

 

Very depressing isn't it? Much of France has had a worse June than us! All of NW Europe suffering the effects of the vile, incessant troughing. While E Europe bakes again, droughts there no doubt. Think they are as fed up as we are lol! But I'd gladly swap for the rest of the summer, can't bear this cloud and 18C max temps. There are hints from some models of a warm up and general rise in pressure later in FI, something to consider.

Edited June 27, 2016 by stainesbloke

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Very depressing isn't it? Much of France has had a worse June than us! All of NW Europe suffering the effects of the vile, incessant troughing. While E Europe bakes again, droughts there no doubt. Think they are as fed up as we are lol! But I'd gladly swap for the rest of the summer, can't bear this cloud and 18C max temps.

I thought you were in spain

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Frosty. said:

I thought you were in spain

Wish i was mate lol.

Well as you say, GFS hinting at a change towards mid July, lets hope for some sort of change, i should have some colour by now, but not the blue i currently see in the mirror!!

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I thought you were in spain

I am! Where it's cloudy lol. Actually the sun has come out now  Best enjoy this week as come Saturday I'll be back in the UK Atlantic garbage 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Wish i was mate lol.

Well as you say, GFS hinting at a change towards mid July, lets hope for some sort of change, i should have some colour by now, but not the blue i currently see in the mirror!!

Yes hopefully those Gefs hints will grow and the second half of this summer will be much better than the first half, I guess after this upcoming cool trough fest, the only way is up!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

I am! Where it's cloudy lol. Actually the sun has come out now  Best enjoy this week as come Saturday I'll be back in the UK Atlantic garbage 

At least it's warmer in Espana

[A.J]

model discussion only please......plenty of other threads for other chat, and indeed,  there's the private message system for personal chit-chat

[knocker]

No appreciable change with the ecm or the ext EPS this morning. We are still locked into the LP over the Pole, trough UK and ridging eastern Europe scenario in the 6-10 period so unsettled and cool. Still much the same in the ext. period.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, it's unsettled from start to finish with low pressure in control, never desperately cold though, the south should never be far from maxima of 20 celsius, give or take a degree or two but progressively cooler further n / nw :- )

[Man With Beard]

Into July, the jet stream on the GFS 00Z op is reasonably well replicated on most ens members:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=3&ech=300

A fairly strong jet, running west to east through the UK. Meaning settled weather will be hard to come by. On the same token, the jet will probably keep out a direct northerly flow too. So probably average conditions for the first half of July, or slightly below average if there turns out to be a prolonged train of depressions. SE areas most likely to do a little better.