Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

Sticking to the immediate the passage of the front today and looking quite wet Tuesday and Weds with quite cool temps. The rest of the run pretty much a dog's dinner but no indication of any major permanent improvement

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS certainly advertises a mainly wet/unsettled Atlantic driven Westerly throughout the run.

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

The GFS certainly advertises a mainly wet/unsettled Atlantic driven Westerly throughout the run.

Yup barbecue summer being dispatched at the moment.

[Frosty.]

Later on the Ecm 00z looks warm in the south with mid 20's celsius, some sunshine and more humid with a chance of thundery showers before it turns cooler and fresher as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the w / sw by T+240.

Edited June 26, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Yup barbecue summer being dispatched at the moment.

Who said it was going to be a BBQ summer?...certainly not the met office!

[Summer Sun]

As Frosty point out above ECM shows the chance of some humid and warmer air developing in the south from around this time next week for around 3 days this clears away by mid week but pressure begins to rise from the south west

Quick edit t192 chart isn't displaying correctly from wetterzentral

 

 

Edited June 26, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

Although there is little comfort for those of us wanting to see warmer and more settled summer weather, there are some tentative signs of improvement from the south towards the end of the week. Both the GFS and ECM ops are showing pressure rising slightly around next weekend from the south. Some may say this is clutching at straws but I am trying to look for the few positive signs that are there.

I always find it amazing how seemingly the coolest air in the Northern Hemisphere seems to make it to our shores in summer, often encompassing most of the UK and yet barely making it across the channel or even into Scandinavia at all! To see the green snot of the 0C upper air close to the west coast of Ireland on the GFS is really a horrifying sight as we head into into July.

[knocker]

Well I wouldn't pin too many hopes on the a couple of days at the end of the ecm ops run. We are still looking at trough domination out to day 14

[northwestsnow]

Poor runs again this morning, no suprise there we need some kind of 'game changer' here, this pattern as we have seen in recent summers is of the 'ariston' variety, on and on and on and on.

Just been to the shop, if it wasn't for calanders one would be forgiven for thinking its late October, not late june...

[Cheshire Freeze]

I've laid off until now...but looking at the output at the minute all I'll say is I told you so. Faced a bit of contempt a few weeks ago from certain posters for suggesting an increasingly unsettled summer but meh such is life!

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I've laid off until now...but looking at the output at the minute all I'll say is I told you so. Faced a bit of contempt a few weeks ago from certain posters for suggesting an increasingly unsettled summer but meh such is life!

Name names, who was contemptuous?

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run is vile, trough after trough attracted to the UK like flies to dog doodo, really depressing for the height of summer with nothing even in the outer limits of Fi, no eye candy, just troughs!

[knocker]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

I've laid off until now...but looking at the output at the minute all I'll say is I told you so. Faced a bit of contempt a few weeks ago from certain posters for suggesting an increasingly unsettled summer but meh such is life!

I have to say whoever it was showed exceedingly bad judgement when in their heart of hearts they knew you are always right.

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

I have to say whoever it was showed exceedingly bad judgement when in their heart of hearts they knew you are always right.

Yeah, who needs the met office, we have Crewecold

[Polar Maritime]

And back to discussing what the 'model outputs' are showing please ta.

[MR EXTREMES]

what i find very interesting is the solar flux is dropping alot and spotless sun.

although of coarse just theory it could well be this summer could be more of whats being projected by the models almost like autumn come early.

completed changed my mind of a dominant humid summer.

the gem would be awful for july thats for sure...

although ecm not as bad still not good either azores heights perhaps being held way south west to influence our summer so far.

Edited June 26, 2016 by MR EXTREMES

[Frosty.]

Looking through the GEFS 6z perturbations shows a few encouraging signs of pressure rising over / close to the UK just beyond day 10 range so it won't necessarily be as trough dominated as the Gfs 6z op run. :- )

Edited June 26, 2016 by Frosty.

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I've laid off until now...but looking at the output at the minute all I'll say is I told you so. Faced a bit of contempt a few weeks ago from certain posters for suggesting an increasingly unsettled summer but meh such is life!

Are you serious? I've never actually heard you predict a warm summer...and I'm pretty sure you were a long way wide of the mark regarding winter. If you predict something enough, you will eventually be right.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Are you serious? I've never actually heard you predict a warm summer...and I'm pretty sure you were a long way wide of the mark regarding winter. If you predict something enough, you will eventually be right.

The good old law of averages

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Looks like this summer is following the well-trodden path of the past few.  The plume always forecast in 3-4 days time fails to materialise or gets batted into the Continent by yet another bloody trough. 

Edited June 26, 2016 by Wildswimmer Pete

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Looks like this summer is following the well-trodden path of the past few.  The plume always forecast in 3-4 days time fails to materialise or gets batted into the Continent by yet another bloody trough. 

Yes it's a rather cool outlook although the south should reach 22c 72f tomorrow but generally that figure won't be reached much if at all, at least further north because it looks changeable / unsettled for the next few weeks BUT there remains a possible pattern change around mid July to summer weather with warm and fine conditions spreading to most of the UK and a chance of more humid thundery spells, at least across the s / se.. so there is still hope for the second half of this summer. : - )

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run was a vile trough fest and for a while I thought the 12z would be equally foul but later in Fi high pressure builds in and brings summery weather, especially to southern areas. :-) 

[knocker]

 

[Frosty.]

If you are of a nervous disposition, look away now

The Gem / Ukmo 12z are also showing a very poor outlook for the height of summer with trough domination during the week ahead and week 2.

[Frosty.]

I'm looking for chinks of light guys, I really am but just went through the GEFS 12z mean all the way to 12th July and there is no end in sight to the frankly poor outlook.. I will keep looking though!