Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Scarfs and gloves for Wimbledon then!!

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

GFS is sensational in comparison to that !!

 

Certainly i would describe the Gfs 12z with an S word but it's not sensational.

[Frosty.]

The best way I can describe the Ecm 12z is unsettled and breezy / windy at times with temperatures struggling to reach average for most of the time, really autumnal charts to be honest! The worst weather is further northwest but nobody escapes spells of rain interspersed with sunshine and showers, there is a few short-lived transient ridges for the south with some brighter, drier and pleasantly warm moments. For the height of summer it's abysmal.

[knocker]

There is no chink of light being shown by the GEFS anomalies

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

There is no chink of light being shown by the GEFS anomalies

No different in winter when some of us are looking for cold, no chink of light.

[Scorcher]

Although the charts look poor at first glance, there will be some better conditions interspersed with a good deal of rain for most- I don't think this evening's charts look quite as bad as last night's. Looking at the ECM, low pressure appears to be centered slightly further north. It doesn't look good at all for Scotland and Northern Ireland though and temperatures will be nothing to write home about anywhere.

[damianslaw]

Echoing others musings on today's model runs - all very underwhelming for anyone wanting sustained warm dry sunny weather - westerly flow predominating with the longwave trough anchoring itself down across the country with the jet steamrolling its way over us, suppressed temps for late June/early July in the north, nearer average in the south. Its not all doom and gloom, some shortlived drier sunnier spells will occur, so some not so bad days thrown into the mix, but far from the heady warm summer heat feeling.. 

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Although the charts look poor at first glance

To me they look poor at second, third and fourth glance too...etc etc

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

heres the 18z chart for 3pm on 1st July, showing the temps - just a poxy 12c in Manchester ON THE FIRST OF JULY!  !!!!!

[A Frayed Knot]

I blame the EU Referendum '... just look at them temps in Northern  France as well 'Shocking ' all be good though as Summer don't really start here in the UK (OUR UK NOW) Until late July

Spoiler

 

 

Edited June 25, 2016 by Cloud buster
Wrong spellin again

[knocker]

In the current pattern not a lot of point reading too much into every individual run so to concentrate on the immediate.

Today the upper trough moves across the country into the North Sea so a similar pattern with the showery rain although the chance of showers will remain virtually everywhere. Then in the westerly regime the next frontal systems arrive on the scene Tuesday giving a wet couple of days.

Edited June 25, 2016 by knocker

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 hours ago, 40*C said:

heres the 18z chart for 3pm on 1st July, showing the temps - just a poxy 12c in Manchester ON THE FIRST OF JULY!  !!!!!

be not too bad, maybe a degree warmer in 6 months from that date

[knocker]

The ecm also has Tuesday and Weds bieng quite wet as a couple of systems traverse the UK

[Summer Sun]

8 hours ago, 40*C said:

heres the 18z chart for 3pm on 1st July, showing the temps - just a poxy 12c in Manchester ON THE FIRST OF JULY!  !!!!!

The 00z aint much better

The beeb did stay last night it would be felling fresher for the start of July and feeling "quite cool" at times though a bit warmer in any sunshine I certainly wouldn't disagree with that looking at the models currently

[Frosty.]

8 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

be not too bad, maybe a degree warmer in 6 months from that date

LOL yes..or 5 months from that date..  December 2015..I remember it well, daffs in full bloom well before christmas!

[Frost HoIIow]

15 hours ago, 40*C said:

heres the 18z chart for 3pm on 1st July, showing the temps - just a poxy 12c in Manchester ON THE FIRST OF JULY!  !!!!!

It's like October all year round lol not surprising though with this corner of Europe like a magnet for cool weather in Summer but mild most of the time in Winter.

[Polar Maritime]

 Just a polite request to keep discussion on topic as per thread title, There is a Summer thread open for general chat. Thanks.

 

[Frosty.]

Models look changeable for the next few weeks, the most unsettled across the n / w where it also looks windy at times with temps near normal but cool during the wet and windy spells. The s / e also see spells of rain interspersed with sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery, again with near normal temps but the southeastern quadrant of the UK in particular looks like having some short-lived  fine and pleasantly warm spells. The long term signal remains encouraging for a pattern change to summery weather from around mid July for most of the UK with fine and warm weather and some humid thundery conditions, especially for the south / southeast which suggests some plume type events so hopefully the second half of this summer will make up for the generally disappointing first half!

[mb018538]

12z is another horror show all round. I think everyone better should look away for a few days, because this is about as bad as it gets.

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

12z is another horror show all round. I think everyone better should look away for a few days, because this is about as bad as it gets.

In this situation it's better that we don't post charts

[knocker]

Not even a sliver of light in the next ten days according to the GEFs anomalies.

But moving into 10-15 period the trough weakens towards the end with a suspicion of ridging mid Atlantic. This signals the decline of the trough and some more influence from the Azores and a drier warmer period. BANK

Sidney was distinctly unimpressed by the 10 day outlook this morning.

 

Edited June 25, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not even a sliver of light in the next ten days according to the GEFs anomalies.

But moving into 10-15 period the trough weakens towards the end with a suspicion of ridging mid Atlantic. This signals the decline of the trough and some more influence from the Azores and a drier warmer period. BANK

Sidney was distinctly unimpressed by the 10 day outlook this morning.

 

Sidney will be happy with the 16-30 day outlook though

[Frosty.]

Not the worst end to the Ecm 12z with, dare I say it... pressure starting to rise!

[knocker]

Well I wouldn't pin too many hopes on that. And the trough, although weaker, is still in residence out to day 14.

[mb018538]

Ergh, the 0c isotherm creeping into the north at the end of the ECM run....it's the middle of summer I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad!