Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

Currently it's not a great outlook for sure Frosty- also going by the ens charts.Still a westerly pattern in week 2 and if anything more trough dominated

Day 10

 

 

 

so quite underwhelming from today's outputs.

 

Yes the anomalies aren't looking too clever. Although there is room for some decent weather in the south in the 6-10 period the trough does become more dominant in the 10-15 thus remaining generally unsettled. The EPS 10-15 has the trough orientated more over the UK than the GEFS.

Last night's NOAA although perhaps not quite so gloomy is in the same ball park

 

[Frosty.]

Well there is some good news from the GEFS 6z mean which indicates increasing Azores high influence into early July with a better sw / ne orientated jet profile. This is more obvious when scanning through the 6z perturbations as a fair number of them show high pressure in the ascendancy... so, although the next 7-10 days are not looking settled, there are hints that by July, prospects  could be looking better for fine and warmer weather across most of the UK.

[Matthew.]

Just when I thought the 'dice' was perhaps beginning to fall wrong the charts above do offer a ray of hope for July in terms of a Summer ruled by High Pressure

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Just when I thought the 'dice' was perhaps beginning to fall wrong the charts above do offer a ray of hope for July in terms of a Summer ruled by High Pressure

Yes Matthew, the Gefs 6z mean offers an olive branch for early July.

[Matthew.]

Can't complain too much at the GFS 12z for next week. Things fairly summery. Nothing special but pleasant weather on the whole.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z op looks better during the first half of week 2, at least further south as a ridge of high pressure extends across southern uk whereas Atlantic fronts continue to brush across the northwest corner. The general rule of thumb on this run is for the best weather in terms of temperatures and dry fine weather are the further south you are and the coolest, most unsettled conditions generally across the northern third of the UK....in other words, normal summer weather.

[knocker]

The GFS is really struggling with the end of the week. It's now adopted the last ecm scenario in taking the area of instability NE but then introduces a depression tracking from the NW

Edited June 19, 2016 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

Well an uncertain week from the models last week has led to a very uncertain forecast for this week - hot weather close to getting in (and could do so on Thursday) but never settled, and you couldn't rule out a soaking at anytime. 

Further ahead, the UK sandwich looks likely - heights to the west and east and troughing drawn like a magnet to the UK - glimmers of hope from UKMO and GEM that heights may build sufficiently over the top but we'll be needing to see much more of that in the models - an eventual NWly mean flow looks favourite for next week right now

[northwestsnow]

All things considered i would take 12z GFS with open arms - ukmo looks very humid and unstable but im thinking its going down the ecm route at 144 whereas gfs brings the az high enough east to prevent or rather delay the attack from the north west.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

All things considered i would take 12z GFS with open arms - ukmo looks very humid and unstable but im thinking its going down the ecm route at 144 whereas gfs brings the az high enough east to prevent or rather delay the attack from the north west.

Agreed, whilst the 6z op was dominated with one trough after another, the 12z gfs has some welcome ridges of high pressure and not a bad end to the run too!

[Frosty.]

Well I'm seeing improvements in the Gefs 12z mean as we head into July with increasing Azores high influence as the jet becomes more favourably orientated sw / ne...so, the 12z has picked up where the 6z mean left off with better prospects for warm and settled weather through early july, at least across the southern half of the UK.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z scoops warmer and very humid air into the south of the UK for wednesday and Thursday, it's a glancing blow but  I would expect some big thunderstorms to drift up from the near continent into the s / se as well as a few homegrown storms, temps in the warm sultry zone could reach 25/26c close to 80f and further north and west across England and Wales should be into the low 20s c through the midweek period, cooler further north with sunny spells and showery rain at times. The very warm air in the s / se is shunted away to the east on Friday but it's still a warm day and the weekend shows a shallow trough bringing a mix of sunshine and heavy showers and then cooler and breezier with low pressure swinging down from the NW early in week 2.

Edited June 19, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The ecm has the LP area of instability in the North Sea at 1800z Thursday. Whilst at the same time it has low to the NW that tracks SE and phases in with the LP to the east to become a general slack area of low pressure over the UK and North Sea by 00 Saturday.giving quite a wet weekend all round. One has to say the models have been making a pigs ear of all of this.

[knocker]

The ecm anomalies tonight merely confirm that the outlook for the next 14 days is unsettled. there is room on the 6-10 for some better weather in the south but the ecm 10-15 consolidate the trough so indicating the unsettled weather may become more general. The one ray of sunshine maybe that as the models have really struggled of late that this trait will continue but I'm not holding my breath.

I've no idea why the ecm image has been reproduced as a miniature.

Edited June 20, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

I think we may be finally getting there. By 1800 Thursday the GFS has the unstable area of low pressure that has tracked NE from Iberia over SE England with it's fellow low off N. Ireland. These two then amalgamate and do a little dance before moving north to allow systems from the west to move in over the weekend. Ergo the end of the week looks like being dominated by showers, perhaps thundery, before more organised bands of rain make an appearance.

Edited June 20, 2016 by knocker

[wishingforsnow]

My assessment of the models at the moment is that the rest of June could be rather changeable and mixed, and there probably won't be another settled spell of weather as we saw earlier in the month but early July could see more in the way of settled warm/hot weather especially the South with a better sw/ne jet profile orientated  

[mb018538]

Output looks thoroughly uninspiring to be honest. Looking at the NH view at 168 hours, there is low pressure all over the north pole, but things are all at the wrong angle for the UK. Ridge around western Russia is making settled conditions here difficult. Hence while Moscow basks in the upper twenties all this week, we're going to have to put up with some fairly non descript weather.

[wishingforsnow]

17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Output looks thoroughly uninspiring to be honest. Looking at the NH view at 168 hours, there is low pressure all over the north pole, but things are all at the wrong angle for the UK. Ridge around western Russia is making settled conditions here difficult. Hence while Moscow basks in the upper twenties all this week, we're going to have to put up with some fairly non descript weather.

It's not just the UK - but also Western Europe who have been plagued by this set up since last week giving more changeable weather to them too. Uninspiring? For the rest of June, maybe. Although the current models have shown the Azores high re establishing itself at the end of the month as posted by @Frosty. Temperature wise it looks better the more South you are. And hopefully the models continue with the hints of improvement for July.

Edited June 20, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[northwestsnow]

GFS is a horror show with troughs seemeingly hell bent on attacking at very opportunity.

ECM looks a bit better with more influence from high pressure although it doesn't look very warm

[MR EXTREMES]

17 hours ago, phil nw. said:

Currently it's not a great outlook for sure Frosty- also going by the ens charts.Still a westerly pattern in week 2 and if anything more trough dominated

Day 10

 and the London temperatures

so quite underwhelming from today's outputs.

 

its pretty incredible most of last week models were very keen on some pretty warm humid and at times stormy conditions.

today a very different picture looks pretty wet at times in the south and southeast infact most of the uk the lower pressure seems stuck between heights to our west which tries to build into greenland but then turns into a mid atlantic block with higher heights to our se and east so then low pressure seems to get stuck in the middle.

very la nina like.

start of summer and we get this 

[wishingforsnow]

7 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

its pretty incredible most of last week models were very keen on some pretty warm humid and at times stormy conditions.

today a very different picture looks pretty wet at times in the south and southeast infact most of the uk the lower pressure seems stuck between heights to our west which tries to build into greenland but then turns into a mid atlantic block with higher heights to our se and east so then low pressure seems to get stuck in the middle.

very la nina like.

start of summer and we get this 

La Nina hasn't fully started influencing our weather yet. The atmosphere is neutral right now. It's not all down to La Nina - our climate is complex and generally changeable. Models change their outlooks all the time so anything past T+144 can't be relied on with certainty. Hence even things like an improvement for July and even what the weather will be like for next week should be treated with caution as it could all change - things could get worse (hopefully not) or the models could continue with the improvement towards more settled weather as we end June and enter July. There could also be periods of more settled weather at the end of June mixed in with the spells of rain (as the Met Office say) Who knows right now? 

Edited June 20, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[knocker]

The ecm paints a similar picture for the end of the week as the GFS but the Azores HP is a bit more influential over the weekend which drives the Atlantic systems further north to mainly effect Scotland but I wouln't bet the bank on this remaining the same on the next run.

Edited June 20, 2016 by knocker

[stodge]

Morning all

A rare chance for me to look at the models and for those wanting heat (with a brief foray of warmth into the south midweek notwithstanding), it's a case of "move along, nothing to see here" for the next 10 days or so.

GEM is the most interesting output - worst in the short term as it brings the LP down over the country but better in the long run as there's less of a trough to prevent Azores ridging. GFS and ECM keep enough of a trough to the west and NW to keep the Azores HP penned up around the Azores (not surprisingly) so no chance of a prolonged S'ly feed at all.

Hardly a wall to wall washout - the ridge has enough wallop to guarantee some half-reasonable weather over parts of the south between frontal areas but as most people on here want heat and/or storms, there' s not a lot of either on offer at present.

I'm tempted to say typical British summer weather at this time.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM doesn't look too bad tonight a good chance of some humid and thundery weather in the south and SE later in the week once this clears high pressure builds in

Edited June 20, 2016 by Summer Sun

[northwestsnow]

Yes ECM is better this evening with high pressure putting up a fight!! 

As knocker said the other day, very difficult for the models to decipher the right evolution with trough/high pressure interaction.