Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[wishingforsnow]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 6z mean shows an improving weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west with the SE possibly holding on to fine and pleasantly warm weather into Monday but for the n / w it will be turning more unsettled. Looking at next week, it appears as though it will be an unsettled week with bands of rain separated by sunshine and showers and breezy at times with temps around average. The Azores high never has the support to build, apart from this weekend it's just out of reach on this run so we stay generally zonal, unsettled but the south is likely to have the best of any pleasantly warm, dry and sunny weather between occasional spells of rain with progressively cooler and more unsettled conditions further north but with a few drier and brighter spells between. The end of the mean hints that the Azores high could build in but this together with the latest met office outlook for both the 6-15 and 16-30 day don't indicate any anticyclonic spell out to the middle of July, certainly nothing settled nationwide. You may not like this but I'm only saying it as it is.

It did a few days ago but it was removed. Probably because it was low confidence they aren't sure yet if the Azores high will get a chance to build over the UK as a whole or just the South. It's on the periphery but there is a chance it could build. I think they're just waiting to see how things will go for the rest of the month, there could be a slow improvement to settled and warm weather for the UK as a whole or the North/South split could remain. The models are very undecided on that and July is still 3 weeks away at the earliest.

But in the immediate timeframe, next week onwards isn't looking terrible with drier and warmer conditions especially in the South present in between rain bands. Temperatures look a couple of degrees warmer than this week too.

Edited June 15, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

It did a few days ago but it was removed. Probably because it was low confidence they aren't sure yet if the Azores high will get a chance to build over the UK as a whole or just the South. It's on the periphery but there is a chance it could build. I think they're just waiting to see how things will go for the rest of the month, there could be a slow improvement to settled and warm weather for the UK as a whole or the North/South split could remain. 

I certainly hope it improves, I want us to have a good summer as much as anyone but I am just reporting it as things currently stand, at least the south should have some fair, warm spells between the rain but it's not looking good further n / w.

[wishingforsnow]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I certainly hope it improves, I want us to have a good summer as much as anyone but I am just reporting it as things currently stand, at least the south should have some fair, warm spells between the rain but it's not looking good further n / w.

Well at least the models don't look completely Autumnal (eg this time in 2012). Nor do they look completely settled. It's going to be mixed for the rest of June and with a North South divide which is unfortunate if you're on the wrong side of it. Hopefully the prospect of a nationwide hot spell does return and get more support in the coming weeks. I'm sure the Met Office including this would mean there is/was some sort of signal indicating a possibility of that outcome but it's too far out to nail on as likely for now.

[Summer Sun]

Much better from UKMO with high pressure winning out

Edited June 15, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Much better from UKMO with high pressure winning out

It's a shame the met office outlook for next week is unsettled, nothing like the ukmo 12z shows, it's the complete opposite.

[shaky]

Ukmo follows on from the isolated ecm this morning interesting!!high could win out!!

[Frosty.]

Comparing the Gfs / Ukmo 12z at T+144 hours, there is a massive gulf, the gfs is just as the met office described in their latest update. i.e.. an unsettled week whereas the ukmo is showing a warm anticyclonic spell...so whilst I would welcome the ukmo version, it is nothing like the current expert view.

[wishingforsnow]

13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Comparing the Gfs / Ukmo 12z at T+144 hours, there is a massive gulf, the gfs is just as the met office described in their latest update. i.e.. an unsettled week whereas the ukmo is showing a warm anticyclonic spell...so whilst I would welcome the ukmo version, it is nothing like the current expert view.

I think UKMO's current forecasts for next week were probably done based on what the models were previously showing for which was before the gradual improvements towards a less unsettled picture. And now we have this stellar run from UKMO. Hopefully their upcoming forecasts reflect the latest trends and the high does indeed win out   As was mentioned earlier, it's a knife edge really.

Edited June 15, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z is not as warm or as anticyclonic as it's 00z but it does show some fine and warm weather for a time next week, it's better than the gfs but not as good as the ukmo, I wonder if we will reach some middle ground next week which would be better than the met office version which is for bands of rain with showers and sunny spells between. The south / southeast could have the best of it next week.

[knocker]

The GEFS 5-10 anomaly tends to support the ops.

[northwestsnow]

ECM says No to low pressure at 144 with HP in charge- what gives here???

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO/GEM/ECM

      

All three show high pressure gaining further influence during the first half of next week, becoming very warm too.

The GFS remains mixed

The movement of the trough eastwards is much quicker on the GFS, that said with 3 other operationals, two of which rival and often out perform the GFS then one has to start wondering whether we will see a much better week next week as opposed to the mixed GFS run.

The GFS ens

      

Even the progressive GFS suite still has that Euro/Scandi ridge very close to influencing our weather. Touch and go on this one but I would put a reasonable punt of a decent spell of summery weather next week, especially as the ECM suite including ensembles this morning were much better in this regard.

[northwestsnow]

I agree Captain, what are the metoffice seeing though? They just talking wind and rain off the Atlantic, ECM/UKMO show absolutely nothing of the sort!!

[Man With Beard]

CS you beat me to it!! So instead I'll pin up the very pleasant 850s for next week. They also demonstrate nicely how the Atlantic trough has completely stalled - see the 8C 850s line getting absolutely nowhere...

  

And here comes the plume at T192 - 20C hpa into the Bay of Biscay - might just be a little too tardy to get to us?

Edited June 15, 2016 by Man With Beard

[wishingforsnow]

28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I agree Captain, what are the metoffice seeing though? They just talking wind and rain off the Atlantic, ECM/UKMO show absolutely nothing of the sort!!

Well, lets wait and see if they get on board with what the models are showing now which is even more improvement for next week and beyond 

Edited June 15, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Snowyowl9]

Looking undecided into next week.

A possible thundery low again if ECM verifies.

[Frosty.]

Well the plot thickens doesn't it, the Ecm 12z follows the ukmo, becoming warmer and more settled with pressure rising, a chance of thundery showers later but this overall picture is completely at odds with the gfs and met office outlook which says unsettled with average temps, a much flatter zonal pattern but this run is nothing of the sort, it's a cross between the stonking Gem 00z / 12z and ukmo 12z... so what gives here? I know the MO release their update before the 12z runs but the difference between their update and the euro models is HUGE...time will reveal all but I hope, as will most of us that next week is a good one!.

The charts are not all in order but they look nice anyway

[knocker]

The ecm is really an odd pot pourri of a run. On Wednesday midnight it has the UK in a col (not a split col) between HP to the SW and NE with a slack unstable area central Europe.

It moves this area north into Scandinavia by 06z Thursday with ridging from the SW over the UK.

It then develops an unstable area over Iberia which it moves north over the next couple of days along the eastern flank of the ridge and by Saturday 00z it’s a shallow low over the Dover Straits. This area has a fair bit of convective activity associated with it.

During this period over the latter part of the week the temps are average or a little above. Apart from day ten where they are considerable below.

None of this of course has any chance of verifying.

Edited June 15, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

The ecm is really an odd pot pourri of a run. On Wednesday midnight it has the UK in a col (not a split col) between HP to the SW and NE with a slack unstable area central Europe.

It moves this area north into Scandinavia by 06z Thursday with ridging from the SW over the UK.

It then develops an unstable area over Iberia which it moves north over the next couple of days along the eastern flank of the ridge and by Saturday 00z it’s a shallow low over the Dover Straits. This area has a fair bit of convective activity associated with it.

During this period over the latter part of the week the temps are average or a little above. Apart from day ten where they are considerable below.

None of this of course has any chance of verifying.

Hi knocker, I know that a part of you wants the euro models to be right and the Ecm 12z and ukmo 12z are indicating some lovely warm temps next week, low to mid 20's celsius but I understand your loyalty to former colleagues at the met office who are right more often than not but on this occasion I hope very much they are wrong because their latest update stinks..hope its warm next week!

[phil nw.]

Yes quite a bit of uncertainty on how much influence the Azores high will have next week.We can see on all runs the weekend improvement as it ridges in but it does look that is a transient feature as the Atlantic fronts move in on Monday.It is after that when the models seem to differ.

The GFS clusters for mid next week still show a majority with a north/south split

 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=156&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

as Knocker has pointed out the ECM shows that col situation across the UK between the 2 areas of high pressure so no certainty at this stage of a completely settled period developing later next week.

My punt would favour the good old north/south split at this stage with some weakening frontal systems drifting across from the west  which still allows some decent fine and warm periods.

 

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Hi knocker, I know that a part of you wants the euro models to be right and the Ecm 12z and ukmo 12z are indicating some lovely warm temps next week, low to mid 20's celsius but I understand your loyalty to former colleagues at the met office who are right more often than not but on this occasion I hope very much they are wrong because their latest update stinks..hope its warm next week!

Actually this run is not a million miles from this mornings 6-10 anomaly minus the details obviously so it will be interesting to see tonight's. Apart that is from the Azores HP ridging NE to Murmansk.

[damianslaw]

Jetstream forecast profile in line with GFS and Met office outlook as opposed to ECM/UKMO. The profile is for a southerly positioned jet over S Britain, and not supportive of any pronounced azores high ridge building through the country. Its not until the 25 June we signs of the jet taking a more NW path, so perhaps we may have to wait until the last week of the month before see a change to drier more sustained drier conditions away from the NW.

[bluearmy]

the spreads on ECM have been supportive of exeters view for next week.  The trend is away from that now and unless the cut off upper lows create havoc, I can see the forecast changing quite soon. 

[William of Walworth]

Thankyou for all your updates and expert interpretation (or at least informed speculation!) everyone.

 

Such a wide variety of projections between the different models are confusing me massively for next week right now.

Us Somerset bound folks are going to have to wait yet longer before we can predict much with any confidence. There does seem to remain some hope on some recent ouput that a N/S split may turn in the S/SW's favour -- at least partly -- HP influence wise.

I'm going to postpone my next synoptic checks on here until after returning home from watchng England/Wales tomorrow.

Might weather prospects for next week seem clearer by about 6 to 7 pm Thursday? I have severe doubts ...

I'll be mainly offline for the duration (except occasional smartphone checks from friends) after about 8:30 am Friday (17th).

Edited June 15, 2016 by William of Walworth

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Apart that is from the Azores HP ridging NE to Murmansk.

Now that would be impressive wouldn't it, the Azores high ridging to the world's biggest arctic Russian city!