Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens doesn't look too bad from Sunday some showers around at times still but it could be a lot worse

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM ens doesn't look too bad from Sunday some showers around at times still but it could be a lot worse

Absolutely Gavin, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks very good to me with increasing warmth and humidity next week, plenty of sun and probably a few storms too..looks better than yesterday comparing like for like, I would take that right now if it was offered to me!

[Man With Beard]

A mild change on the ECM ensemble mean this morning:

 

yesterday's 12Z and 00Z means:

  

The trough to the west is getting progressively more pronounced and the added heights to the NE makes it stall sooner. The result is the potential for an easterly influence for a couple of days, before the trough probably gets over us later in the week.

Taking the models as a whole, the ECM is ever so slightly out, though it is the king of the splitting trough at around T120/T144 so it must be given extra attention. The GFS and UKMO both push the pattern through much quicker (4 or 5 GEFS members give support to the ECM but most don't). However, the ECM has an ally in the GEM this morning:

which is a return to the peachy runs of a couple of days ago.

It does look, though, that slow moving low pressures may be close by come D9/D10, trapped between the Azores High and the Scandi High, as Damianslaw pointed out last night. 

    

So putting the GEM to one side, it doesn't look like it will ever be settled for too long next week, but the kind of unsettled pattern could still be a warm/thundery one, with potential for any spots which can avoid onshore breezes, convergence zones and frontal areas to have a corker of a week. If the ECM comes off, maybe the NW and Wales again? If the GFS/UKMO, the SE might be good aside a weak front or two. 

 

 

[mb018538]

It'll be minute differences as you say (should that set up prevail) as to the weather type. Pesky little split trough causing the headaches again.

The good thing though, is it's not a zonal low pressure wash out. It'll just be typical summer weather, temps around where they should be, with some sun and showers. Could be better, could be worse.

[Frosty.]

29 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Pesky little split trough causing the headaches again.

 

Another split trough? Lol where's knocker

[DTHFCJ]

im trying to post the 00z runs but it keeps giving me the 12z but like i did say some very warm runs there.........nice!

 

edit and the run says thur 26 may?im confused with this copying and pasting malarkey grrrrrr il keep trying though! 

Edited June 17, 2016 by DTHFCJ

[Frosty.]

Just now, DTHFCJ said:

 

some very warm runs there.................nice!

Indeed, it looks better than yesterday...  very nice

[DTHFCJ]

indeed Frosty the 00z are even better!

Edited June 15, 2016 by DTHFCJ

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, DTHFCJ said:

indeed Frosty the 00z are even better!

Hopefully the 12z will be better still!

[Summer Sun]

13 minutes ago, DTHFCJ said:

im trying to post the 00z runs but it keeps giving me the 12z but like i did say some very warm runs there.........nice!

 

edit and the run says thur 26 may?im confused with this copying and pasting malarkey grrrrrr il keep trying though! 

[DTHFCJ]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

top man Summer Sun thankyou...

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, DTHFCJ said:

top man Summer Sun thankyou...

Are you able to get the updated charts here? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkavnmgeur.htm

[DTHFCJ]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

top man Summer Sun thankyou...

 

yes Summer Sun il have to play about with it a bit so i can post things better im afraid ive old g!t syndrome when it comes to copying and pasting........

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, DTHFCJ said:

top man Summer Sun thankyou...

 

yes Summer Sun il have to play about with it a bit so i can post things better im afraid ive old g!t syndrome when it comes to copying and pasting........

Yes I just realized it was from May, never mind, your positivity is very welcome on here, and I think the output has improved since yesterday, next week looks warm.

[DTHFCJ]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes I just realized it was from May, never mind, your positivity is very welcome on here, and I think the output has improved since yesterday, next week looks warm.

cheers Frosty always enjoy your positivity too all the best.

sorry for going off topic Mods.

[knocker]

If you tale the the ecm 6-10 anomaly this morning

and lose the trough to the NW and slacken the positive heights to the east and move them a tad east then you have the picture for the 10-15 chart. Reverting to the above chart what you find regarding the surface analysis is as you move towards day ten you have two HP centres, western Atlantic and  the NE with the UK in a col. Progressing to the 30th June a weak westerly is the order of the day as the HP to the NE declines. The temps if anything in this rather inderterminate scenario a little above average.

 

Edited June 15, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, DTHFCJ said:

cheers Frosty always enjoy your positivity too all the best.

sorry for going off topic Mods.

Cheers mate

[Faronstream]

I only see Zonal flow as long as the models can see.

Edited June 15, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To remove broken quote.

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

I only see Zonal flow as long as the models can see,

To me, next week looks better than yesterday's output, especially the Gem 00z and I would never regard constant very warm and sunny days as boring, I would love another summer like 1995

Edited June 15, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

I only see Zonal flow as long as the models can see.

Thank you polar maritime, that post before you edited it made it sound like I had said very warm sunny days are boring, of course I have never thought or said that so cheers for clearing up that misleading quote. :-)

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS is certainly showing the usual N/W-S/E divide into next week as weak fronts push in from the West mainly effecting Northern parts after Mondays washout, Leaving the South with a more showery outlook with scope for thunderstorms at times given any surface heating, And temps into the high teens possibly touching 20c in some parts of the S/E on Thur/Friday, While parts of N/W Scotland stop on the cooler side, A real mixed bag coming up..

Edited June 15, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Pretty wet in most places but in particular NE Scotland

[Frosty.]

29 minutes ago, knocker said:

Pretty wet in most places but in particular NE Scotland

Hope it dries up for Wimbledon or else there will be plenty of summer holiday from sir cliff

[wishingforsnow]

It's good to see improvements on next week as we approach it as opposed to things changing for the worse. ECM and GEM look like giving the best conditions if they come off, temperatures would be a little cooler on the GFS but to me it's not completely zonal which is good. According to the Met Office a North-South divide should establish itself for the rest of June but into July there could be high pressure extending itself to the rest of the UK. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows an improving weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west with the SE possibly holding on to fine and pleasantly warm weather into Monday but for the n / w it will be turning more unsettled. Looking at next week, it appears as though it will be an unsettled week with bands of rain separated by sunshine and showers and breezy at times with temps around average. The Azores high never has the support to build, apart from this weekend it's just out of reach on this run so we stay generally zonal, unsettled but the south is likely to have the best of any pleasantly warm, dry and sunny weather between occasional spells of rain with progressively cooler and more unsettled conditions further north but with a few drier and brighter spells between. The end of the mean hints that the Azores high could build in but this together with the latest met office outlook for both the 6-15 and 16-30 day don't indicate any anticyclonic spell out to the middle of July, certainly nothing settled nationwide. You may not like this but I'm only saying it as it is.