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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
22 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

It was me who said the  Constant sunny days are  boring and I standby that.

People in the east who were stuck under cold cloudy skies last week will be getting their violins out for you!:D

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 I don't particularly want the frontal rain all the cooler temps,  but if it'll give me some thundery showers  as well as some sunshine then I will take it,  especially as this current setup has  failed to deliver.  If this pattern repeats again later in the month I won't be complaining though. 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

Some people are never satisfied!

I suspect IF you lived in this area your perspective would be different. Winds from the N Sea, much as today, at best, give a sunny afternoon after an overcast morning. Possibly not too different if you get a westerly with moist low level air. It is best to stear away from the above type of comment Chris as each area of the country has its good and bad points.

To the models, well the anomaly charts as ever from me, 6-14 days? Not much sign of any long lasting warmth from them with an upper pattern that suggests some unsettled weather at times, some drier intervals with warmish sunshine also and the best of this as one might expect for the SE quarter or one third of the UK.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

As you can see from the links (which will update as a 'new' outpit is issued, shows the upper air pattern for the 6-14 day period. All 3 much the same pattern and have been for a couple of days so it will be unlikely that the upper air pattern is going to be much different in that period. Of course they are predicted averages so on one day in a run of this we will see temporary variations. At T+72-120 the synoptic models should show these variations, not conclusively but as T+00 approaches they will converge on the actual pattern for that time. Also detail on sunshine amounts, temperatures and rainfall totals, be that frontal or convective will also start to converge on the actual weather on any one day. Trying to predict just where a storm will occur is best left to radar watching with a general outlook from those who specialise in this sort of thing.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
29 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I suspect IF you lived in this area your perspective would be different. Winds from the N Sea, much as today, at best, give a sunny afternoon after an overcast morning. Possibly not too different if you get a westerly with moist low level air. It is best to stear away from the above type of comment Chris as each area of the country has its good and bad points.

To the models, well the anomaly charts as ever from me, 6-14 days? Not much sign of any long lasting warmth from them with an upper pattern that suggests some unsettled weather at times, some drier intervals with warmish sunshine also and the best of this as one might expect for the SE quarter or one third of the UK.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

As you can see from the links (which will update as a 'new' outpit is issued, shows the upper air pattern for the 6-14 day period. All 3 much the same pattern and have been for a couple of days so it will be unlikely that the upper air pattern is going to be much different in that period. Of course they are predicted averages so on one day in a run of this we will see temporary variations. At T+72-120 the synoptic models should show these variations, not conclusively but as T+00 approaches they will converge on the actual pattern for that time. Also detail on sunshine amounts, temperatures and rainfall totals, be that frontal or convective will also start to converge on the actual weather on any one day. Trying to predict just where a storm will occur is best left to radar watching with a general outlook from those who specialise in this sort of thing.

 

The some people are never satisfied was my quote John and I stand by it, there hasn't been anything to moan about if you like very warm weather with mid 20's celsius since last weekend.. and about 7 days before that if you were lucky enough to have pretty much wall to wall sunshine and 23 / 24c temps like western Britain had last week. :)

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
33 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I suspect IF you lived in this area your perspective would be different. Winds from the N Sea, much as today, at best, give a sunny afternoon after an overcast morning. Possibly not too different if you get a westerly with moist low level air. It is best to stear away from the above type of comment Chris as each area of the country has its good and bad points.

To the models, well the anomaly charts as ever from me, 6-14 days? Not much sign of any long lasting warmth from them with an upper pattern that suggests some unsettled weather at times, some drier intervals with warmish sunshine also and the best of this as one might expect for the SE quarter or one third of the UK.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

As you can see from the links (which will update as a 'new' outpit is issued, shows the upper air pattern for the 6-14 day period. All 3 much the same pattern and have been for a couple of days so it will be unlikely that the upper air pattern is going to be much different in that period. Of course they are predicted averages so on one day in a run of this we will see temporary variations. At T+72-120 the synoptic models should show these variations, not conclusively but as T+00 approaches they will converge on the actual pattern for that time. Also detail on sunshine amounts, temperatures and rainfall totals, be that frontal or convective will also start to converge on the actual weather on any one day. Trying to predict just where a storm will occur is best left to radar watching with a general outlook from those who specialise in this sort of thing.

 I didn't say some people are never satisfied, frosty did.  For most of the year  my area has to suffer with cold winds coming off the Irish sea and rain,  so I do understand what that feels like. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

.......and back to the model output discussion please :)

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

It's certainly looking like somewhere around the 18th/19th is the next crunch period. Certainly unsettled until that point, but a chance of something more settled building in from that point. Not a massive chance at the moment, but certainly the door is ajar.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Found the GWO plot;

gfsgwo_1.png

It's crunch time! The model has to be plain wrong for us to escape La-Nina territory, which seems a bit of a stretch, but whether we stay in that region or see a recovery through 3/4/5, that is the question.

The way the op runs keep bringing lows in from the northwest is based on the assumption that GLAAM will plummet, then plummet some more. Off the scale, in fact. Not even the biggest positive El Nino-driven AAM boosts of the past winter were able to get it off the scale on this plot.

Tomorrow's update is greatly anticipated - will we enter negative AAM territory and if so, by how much? The outcome will be very telling!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
2 hours ago, Chris.R said:

 I didn't say some people are never satisfied, frosty did.  For most of the year  my area has to suffer with cold winds coming off the Irish sea and rain,  so I do understand what that feels like. 

I apologise Chris, and will post back to Frosty, sorry

 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

 

The some people are never satisfied was my quote John and I stand by it, there hasn't been anything to moan about if you like very warm weather with mid 20's celsius since last weekend.. and about 7 days before that if you were lucky enough to have pretty much wall to wall sunshine and 23 / 24c temps like western Britain had last week. :)

Then I take you up frosty.

In this area we had 8 consecutive days with dull, overcast or at best cloudy starts, From Monday 30/05 with a max of 18.6C then the highest to the 3rd of June was 18.7C and on 4 of those days it never exceeded 14C, hence my comment.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The long term signal remains promising from late June into July with high pressure building in across the south bringing warmer and increasingly sunny weather across the southern half of the UK and probably then extending to the rest of the UK according to the MO. 

The Gfs 6z op run shows trough domination next week with a very showery spell, many of them heavy with hail and thunder, sometimes merging into longer spells of rain but with sunny spells too. During low res, a ridge of high pressure builds across the uk with a welcome break from the unsettled spell. The current thinking is after the showery trough eventually fills towards the end of next week, a nw / se split will develop with the northwest of the UK remaining generally unsettled and the best of the fine and warmer weather across the s / se.:)

h500slp.png

h500slp (1).png

h500slp (2).png

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

I like your thoughts Frosty and evidence by charts and positivity:) but doesn't Singularity's post worry you with Low pressure swinging from the Nw? I'm still remaining positive but how will the dice fall?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Then I take you up frosty.

In this area we had 8 consecutive days with dull, overcast or at best cloudy starts, From Monday 30/05 with a max of 18.6C then the highest to the 3rd of June was 18.7C and on 4 of those days it never exceeded 14C, hence my comment.

Hi John, I can't argue with your statistics, I was just making the point that there has been generally warm / very warm weather since last Saturday across most of the UK, especially from sunday with temps as high as 26 / 28c 81f and last week the western half of the BI was very warm and sunny with temps around 23 / 24c 74f so overall there has been some very good weather apart from last week in the east which was utterly miserable.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I like your thoughts Frosty and evidence by charts and positivity:) but doesn't Singularity's post worry you with Low pressure swinging from the Nw? I'm still remaining positive but how will the dice fall?

Hi Matthew, thanks:). No it doesn't worry me because the models are agreed on a trough dominated unsettled showery mid June period but I still think the Azores high will build in towards end of June and last well into July which will be good for Glastonbury and Wimbledon to name but a few big events coming up.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Found the GWO plot;

gfsgwo_1.png

It's crunch time! The model has to be plain wrong for us to escape La-Nina territory, which seems a bit of a stretch, but whether we stay in that region or see a recovery through 3/4/5, that is the question.

The way the op runs keep bringing lows in from the northwest is based on the assumption that GLAAM will plummet, then plummet some more. Off the scale, in fact. Not even the biggest positive El Nino-driven AAM boosts of the past winter were able to get it off the scale on this plot.

Tomorrow's update is greatly anticipated - will we enter negative AAM territory and if so, by how much? The outcome will be very telling!

As a matter of interest In what way will it be telling? As an analog for 2010 which is something Michael Ventrice seems to pondering?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I have taken a midweek snapshot from the Gfs 12z to show the trough domination next week with a recipe for heavy showers and thunderstorms to break out daily following dry starts with early sunshine. Temperatures look pleasant during the dry and sunny spells but cooler when showers or longer spells of rain occur.:)

ukmaxtemp.png

ukprec.png

ukstormrisk.png

h500slp (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
On 6/8/2016 at 16:32, Frosty. said:

Yes I agree, I posted 22 charts so it can't be bad, should be some fantastic skies next week as thunderstorms bubble up, a bit like yesterday with the local flash floods, the main difference being the temps but they still look decent for the time of year and warm in the sunny spells..would love a late June heatwave, a much longer lasting one than we had at the start of July last year.:D

Hello Karl,

A question from a weather novice.

Looking at the charts that you posted it shows that the south coast of England plus a few miles inland look set to be mainly dry. My wife and I are thinking of taking a Monday to Friday break in a caravan, probably in the Lym Regis area as a last minute booking.

Am I reading the chart correctly? If so why will it be dry? Is it because of sea breezes and convection will only occur over land?

Thanks

Dave

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, cheese said:

You don't live in the western side of the UK though Frosty, you live in Wakefield, only 10 miles south of Leeds. The weather for us has not been very good at all for the most part. When factoring in where most people in the UK actually live, it's not been good. 

LOL Cheese take a look at 12z GFS - if you think the last few weeks has been bad, look away now!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Well lets hope GFS12Z is wayyyyy off the mark its pretty much trough after trough and a mass of Greenland blocking!!! 

Yep very nina esque with the jet running S of the UK through France. A very hard pattern to shift out of if that sets up (as we've seen in previous years) and would certainly fit the common idea of a nina summer. I suspect we'll have one other decent period of summer weather possibly late June/very early July before a swift deterioration once again.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, CreweCold said:

Yep very nina esque with the jet running S of the UK through France. A very hard pattern to shift out of if that sets up (as we've seen in previous years) and would certainly fit the common idea of a nina summer. I suspect we'll have one other decent period of summer weather possibly late June/very early July before a swift deterioration once again.

Its really starting to irk me now alll this Greeny high pressure in SUMMER, we cant buy a greeny  high in WINTER!! :(

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Just Model Output Discussion only please, There is a Summer thread open for more general discussion. Anymore off topic post may vanish..

Thanks. 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its really starting to irk me now alll this Greeny high pressure in SUMMER, we cant buy a greeny  high in WINTER!! :(

A myriad of factors really including how we've been unlucky with the ENSO switch over time wise over the past few years.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Certainly an unsettled outlook into Wk2 from this evenings GFS, As Low pressure systems move in off the Atlantic aided by a strong Jet over or South of the UK.

a.pngb.pngc.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
54 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Hello Karl,

A question from a weather novice.

Looking at the charts that you posted it shows that the south coast of England plus a few miles inland look set to be mainly dry. My wife and I are thinking of taking a Monday to Friday break in a caravan, probably in the Lym Regis area as a last minute booking.

Am I reading the chart correctly? If so why will it be dry? Is it because of sea breezes and convection will only occur over land?

Thanks

Dave

Hi Dave, that's a very good question and you have more or less answered it yourself. It looks very unstable next week with a trough slap bang over the UK, it's really hard to try and pin down the regional detail except to say it's a perfect recipe for big showers with a risk of thunder to develop inland but they could also drift across coastal areas, coastal sea breezes will have an impact but I really hope you drop lucky and miss most of the showers and see some pleasant sunshine, the morning's should start largely fine and the showers could be less intense later in the day across coastal areas..good luck and hope you have a nice holiday.:)

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