Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows a ridge of high pressure building in across southern uk later next week bringing drier and sunnier weather after a spell of trough domination with a few bands of rain crossing from west to east from Friday onwards mixed with sunshine and heavy, thundery showers, as for temperatures, they look around average but feeling pleasantly warm in the sunny spells but some nights could be a bit on the cool side....so, certainly not a washout, we should see some dry and sunny weather too.

Edited June 8, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The 6-10 anomalies tonight all showing a cut off upper low adjacent to the UK with mid Atlantic ridge but no unanimity on the precise position of the low so the orientation of the surface area of low pressure still a tad up in the air.  So any reliable indications of the weather will need to be put on the back burner for a couple of days although one could take a punt on showery conditions with sunny intervals.

Moving into the 10-15 period indications are the the upper low will decline fairly rapidly engendering a more westerly flow and with the Azores HP attempting to nudge in from the south west perhaps a north/south split

Edited June 8, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a slow moving trough across the UK next week and suggests a very showery week with sunny spells and heavy, thundery showers breaking out widely across the UK each day which will please a lot of people, including me, the trough slowly fills in situ but the risk of showers would remain... its certainly not looking boring!

[joggs]

Off topic,sorry,but Paul Hudson on look north at teatime said the rest of June is not looking good.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, joggs said:

Off topic,sorry,but Paul Hudson on look north at teatime said the rest of June is not looking good.

His idea of bad will be someone else's idea of good, I think after an unsettled spell mid month it will improve by the last 7-10 days of June which as I understand it the met office are still indicating increasingly fine and warmer weather from around June 23rd to approx 7th July so that suggests the Azores high will become much more influential which would be good news for Glastonbury and Wimbledon among other events.

[summer blizzard]

A lot of optimism in this thread but to be honest, only the Euro looks remotely acceptable by day 10. This may not be 07 but it's pretty poor for the next third of June. 

[Frosty.]

19 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

A lot of optimism in this thread but to be honest, only the Euro looks remotely acceptable by day 10. This may not be 07 but it's pretty poor for the next third of June. 

It's been good since last weekend though, mid 20s c and tons of sunshine with some spectacular storms and of course last week was fabulous out west...it's been pretty good so far but then I look for the positives and late June into early July is still looking very promising according to the experts.

[cheese]

59 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's been good since last weekend though, mid 20s c and tons of sunshine with some spectacular storms and of course last week was fabulous out west...it's been pretty good so far but then I look for the positives and late June into early July is still looking very promising according to the experts.

Not really that good here Frosty, or for most of the UK - the first 5 days of June were totally sunless at London Heathrow, and the past 3 days have had the following sunshine hours - 9.1, 13.4 and 4.3. For one of the sunniest areas of the UK that is abysmal you have to admit. Hasn't been as bad here but but it's only the past 3 days (Sun-Tues) that were sunny or mostly sunny. Before then, mostly cloudy or overcast, and cold, with the 1st of June having a max of 12C. Wednesday was another cloudy day and today is looking rather cloudy too.

It's definitely not been a week of sunny skies and warm weather as far as most people in the UK are concerned. This spell of weather has turned out to be very disappointing for a lot of people, and will be gone before it got the chance to get going. If this turned out to be the best we see all year then it would definitely go down in history as the worst. 

Hopefully, July and August will deliver something at least decent, because for most people in the UK summer has not got off to a good start, and if the rest of June is unsettled then it'll be a write-off. Even June 2007 managed better than we seen have thus far despite the tremendous amounts of rain! 

Edited June 8, 2016 by cheese

[knocker]

A general overview of the GFS this morning. As known the low pressure moves in from the west tomorrow and the ensuing slack area of low pressure remains in situ over the UK all of next week.Time for the trite giving outbreaks of rain, perhaps thundery, interspersed with sunny intervals. One thing of interest it does develop a low central Europe and wings it up to the Baltic.

This not totally at odds with the GEFS anomaly which is dissipating the upper trough around the 18th and builds a ridge from the SW

Edited June 9, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

ECM OP is a tad disappointing this morning - not as optimistic as last nights output. All hinging on how the low coming out of the USA gets scooped up by the jet and how quickly it moves across the atlantic. This morning it prevents the azores high building, where as last night the ridge snuck in ahead. One to watch.

[northwestsnow]

Pretty poor outputs this morning across the board.

Don't like to see blocking across Greenland in summer as the Atlantic lows tend to be directed at the UK, as we have seen in summers past.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

i wouldnt dream of ditching the ecm ,

first model to pick up on the zonal breakdown when the gfs was days behind now most of the top models are agreeing with each other.

so the breakdown looks set in stone.

its been very nice lately but bit to sticky so willl appreciate the cool down although i hope we dont get stuck in a unsettled pattern but its certainly a possibility although i dont see it being a monsoon but i also dont see the sea side becoming the place to be for awhile anyway.

[MR EXTREMES]

7 hours ago, cheese said:

Not really that good here Frosty, or for most of the UK - the first 5 days of June were totally sunless at London Heathrow, and the past 3 days have had the following sunshine hours - 9.1, 13.4 and 4.3. For one of the sunniest areas of the UK that is abysmal you have to admit. Hasn't been as bad here but but it's only the past 3 days (Sun-Tues) that were sunny or mostly sunny. Before then, mostly cloudy or overcast, and cold, with the 1st of June having a max of 12C. Wednesday was another cloudy day and today is looking rather cloudy too.

It's definitely not been a week of sunny skies and warm weather as far as most people in the UK are concerned. This spell of weather has turned out to be very disappointing for a lot of people, and will be gone before it got the chance to get going. If this turned out to be the best we see all year then it would definitely go down in history as the worst. 

Hopefully, July and August will deliver something at least decent, because for most people in the UK summer has not got off to a good start, and if the rest of June is unsettled then it'll be a write-off. Even June 2007 managed better than we seen have thus far despite the tremendous amounts of rain! 

considering the average for this time of year its not really been that awful.

ok against the averages for you location its been pretty muggy and above average.

http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/uk/leeds/historic

plenty of summer left though 

[Summer Sun]

Probably a mix of sunshine and showers from ECM with temps still around the seasonal average all in all it would be pretty good growing weather

GEM is the most promising for a rise in pressure

[Matthew.]

Thanks for the latest charts Knocker. Certainly turning unsettled as indicated by GFS. Looking to the latter chart with a more possible influence from the Azores High this reminds of September 2015 where it turned unsettled mid month only to leave a glorious final week. As Tamara said 'the dice has to fall right'

[Summer Sun]

The D9 and 10 ens from ECM would bring some drier and brighter weather especially for the south but even further north any rain would be limited

[Singularity]

A lot is riding on the AAM recovering after the current falling trend rather than transitioning to full La Niña state with the Azores High pulled back west.

Has anyone got the latest GEFS outlook for the GWO? I'm on my phone and can't seem to locate my usual resource. Cheers.

The repeated trend toward the Azores High nosing in later in recent GFS runs gives some cause to hope that the AAM might recover.

[Man With Beard]

Ensemble agreement at T240 - a good thing for confidence:

  

The vast majority of GEFS members have a similar shape at the same timeframe - though not the op.

So possibility of an "OK" weekend for 18/19 June - may be a weak front in there but mostly dry and of course warm, being mid-June

[Scorcher]

9 hours ago, cheese said:

Not really that good here Frosty, or for most of the UK - the first 5 days of June were totally sunless at London Heathrow, and the past 3 days have had the following sunshine hours - 9.1, 13.4 and 4.3. For one of the sunniest areas of the UK that is abysmal you have to admit. Hasn't been as bad here but but it's only the past 3 days (Sun-Tues) that were sunny or mostly sunny. Before then, mostly cloudy or overcast, and cold, with the 1st of June having a max of 12C. Wednesday was another cloudy day and today is looking rather cloudy too.

It's definitely not been a week of sunny skies and warm weather as far as most people in the UK are concerned. This spell of weather has turned out to be very disappointing for a lot of people, and will be gone before it got the chance to get going. If this turned out to be the best we see all year then it would definitely go down in history as the worst. 

Hopefully, July and August will deliver something at least decent, because for most people in the UK summer has not got off to a good start, and if the rest of June is unsettled then it'll be a write-off. Even June 2007 managed better than we seen have thus far despite the tremendous amounts of rain! 

Very different experience here cheese, amazing considering you're only 40 odd miles away from me. The further west you are, the better this spell really has been. It really has felt very warm throughout this spell here- even last Friday when London was struggling to get into the teens, we were up at 21C and mostly sunny. Monday here was a truly stunning summer's day- couldn't have been better really. There were actually only 2 poor days here last week even- Wednesday and Thursday, which were not overly cool in any case. And you didn't have to go very far west to get back into the sunshine- I'm pretty sure Liverpool had sunshine on those days.

It has been above 24C here every day since Saturday, and with a humid feel it has felt warmer.

[Scorcher]

Well it's not a disastrous outlook this morning by any means- I imagine the conditions will become a lot more 'traditional' British summer over the next few days with a mixture of sunshine and showers, and at long last, the south returning to being the favoured area for brightness and drier weather.

I can't see anything particularly cool over the next few days- I think most areas will see at least average temperatures, but of course under any longer spells of rain the temperatures will be surpressed.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Very different experience here cheese, amazing considering you're only 40 odd miles away from me. The further west you are, the better this spell really has been. It really has felt very warm throughout this spell here- even last Friday when London was struggling to get into the teens, we were up at 21C and mostly sunny. Monday here was a truly stunning summer's day- couldn't have been better really. There were actually only 2 poor days here last week even- Wednesday and Thursday, which were not overly cool in any case. And you didn't have to go very far west to get back into the sunshine- I'm pretty sure Liverpool had sunshine on those days.

It has been above 24C here every day since Saturday, and with a humid feel it has felt warmer.

Phew, nice to see someone agrees with me!

I was beginning to think this very warm spell was a figment of my imagination...and last week it was very warm and sunny on the western side of the UK. Hopefully we will have a major heatwave or 3 this summer with 30+ celsius

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Phew, nice to see someone agrees with me!

I was beginning to think this very warm spell was a figment of my imagination...and last week it was very warm and sunny on the western side of the UK. Hopefully we will have a major heatwave or 3 this summer with 30+ celsius

I think the problem with this spell is that not everyone has joined in the fun. I do tend to find though that West is best early on in the summer, with the East becoming more favoured later on. It's so rare to have such a prolonged spell where the north and west is consistently warmer than the South East- significantly so on some days!

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

I think the problem with this spell is that not everyone has joined in the fun. I do tend to find though that West is best early on in the summer, with the East becoming more favoured later on. It's so rare to have such a prolonged spell where the north and west is consistently warmer than the South East- significantly so on some days!

Yes but he said most of the UK has had disappointing weather. It was very warm and sunny in the western half of the uk last week, someone on here even complained about it being boring because it was too sunny!!!  I've been looking at the BBC forecasts and they have shown widespread 24/25/26 c with lots of sunshine since last Saturday...hardly disappointing, and its still very warm today!

Some people are never satisfied!

[knocker]

The ecm ens anomalies this morning have the upper trough declining and moving east by the 18th with a ridge nudging in from the SW. This development of the ridge is transitional and by the 21st we have a westerly flow with a weak trough the WNW so remaining unsettled but perhaps more so in the north.

Edited June 9, 2016 by knocker

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Yes but he said most of the UK has had disappointing weather. It was very warm and sunny in the western half of the uk last week, someone on here even complained about it being boring because it was too sunny!!!  I've been looking at the BBC forecasts and they have shown widespread 24/25/26 c with lots of sunshine since last Saturday...hardly disappointing, and its still very warm today!

Some people are never satisfied!

It was me who said the  Constant sunny days are  boring and I standby that. I'm sure  many of my fellow convection fans would agree with me. It's okay to an extent but when it's sunny for days on end you just want some action. I'm looking forward to next week for that reason.