Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[Matthew.]

Thomas Shafenaker just explained a bit of the weather next week on bbc and a real possibility of a Spanish plume event with temps up to 27-30c midweek. All depends on this low. If the jet meanders like the bbc hint at we could be in for something special!

[sparky71a]

1 hour ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Thomas Shafenaker just explained a bit of the weather next week on bbc and a real possibility of a Spanish plume event with temps up to 27-30c midweek. All depends on this low. If the jet meanders like the bbc hint at we could be in for something special!

Matthew I'm in Nunthorpe, we see anything close on 30c here it'll be a bit more than special ;-) However models showing that plume,is good for our back yard seeing warm air push up through the Vale of York/Cleveland Hills,here's hoping,today it was 7.8c at 10:30 am.

[mb018538]

All looking good still this morning on the GFS and UKMO.

Forecast maxima for the next week or so on the 00z GFS - Saturday 23c, Sunday 24c, Monday 24c, Tuesday 25c, Wednesday 26c, Thursday 26c, Friday 26c, Saturday 24c, Sunday 22c 

I dare say somewhere will certainly hit 27c/81f if the storms stay away. Classic Spanish plume coming up!

[Matthew.]

7 hours ago, Tanden Sparkster said:

Matthew I'm in Nunthorpe, we see anything close on 30c here it'll be a bit more than special ;-) However models showing that plume,is good for our back yard seeing warm air push up through the Vale of York/Cleveland Hills,here's hoping,today it was 7.8c at 10:30 am.

Yes these are rare occurances up here. Last year we reached 28c and 31c respectively on June 30 and July 1st. Its still a little early for that sort of warmth to make it up here. But 20c instead of 12c would be nice. Sunday coming up very warm for south on latest runs.

[mb018538]

ECM isn't bad either. It's worth nothing that the GFS has probably trumped the ECM here, as a couple of days ago the ECM wanted to power the Atlantic through by day 8-10....now it's much more in line with the GFS outcome, of it somewhat stalling, and not going straight through the UK. Instead it takes a more NE'erly track, though still affecting the UK to some extent. Quite a few people on here did say that as we got closer to the time, it could be that the models were over-keen to bring the Atlantic through. That could very well end up being the case.

[Man With Beard]

A small move from ECM towards GFS this morning as we head towards next weekend. Encouraging, though the dangers of relying on one run of course

A very warm next week looks banked now

[Summer Sun]

That low seems to be moving further away from the UK looking at ECM this morning

The latter stages it gets closer, but it's already been delayed a number of times now so who knows what will happen

[William Grimsley]

12 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening all, A mixture of just about everything depending on where you live . Thunderstorms may well be prevalent in the week ahead especially for southern Britain. After that , it looks as though the long wave trough in the Atlantic will have some influence later during next week...

Yes, most likely elevated with the chart runs recently but inland areas won't miss out.

[William Grimsley]

16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

That low seems to be moving further away from the UK looking at ECM this morning

The latter stages it gets closer, but it's already been delayed a number of times now so who knows what will happen

Hmm, not liking the look of the last chart at all, ECM breaks down the heat quite early on next Monday...

[northwestsnow]

Tremendous coup for GFS - Euro agrees that the breakdown is delayed until next weekend on the 00z runs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

Warm even hot sun, footy and off work all week for me, three cheers for GFS!!! 

Edited June 3, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Summer Sun]

14 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Hmm, not liking the look of the last chart at all, ECM breaks down the heat quite early on next Monday...

Wouldn't worry at this range Will its D10 and the breakdown has already got put back numerous times

[Singularity]

Still a lot to be figured out in terms of the orientation and focus of high pressure next week, and consequentially just how warm it is.

The day 5 (+120) charts tell the story well;

  

ECM (left) has a region of 1028 mb to the east of Iceland, with a slack ridge through the UK. The flow around that 1028 mb HP core causes te push of warm air on the eastern flank of the Atlantic low to disperse and cover a wider area, and generally the alignment of the flow prevents a further buildup of warm tropical maritime (TM) air across the UK. So we're left with a TM/tropical continental (TC) mix over the UK and are reliant on a day-on-day build of heat while the pattern remains very slack for the following two days. I expect mid-20's would be achievable in the south, but this does rely on the slack conditions - some recent GFS runs have been similar to this ECM run but had more of an easterly flow taking the edge of things (20-23*C generally so still pleasant).

UKMO (middle) is a bit of a stepping-stone toward a better setup for piling in some warm tropical maritime air and giving the temperatures a bit of a boost on top of the day-on-day heating effect. This is due to there being less of a focus of the high to the north and more of a NE alignment to the jet stream. There's not a lot in it though, so I expect surface conditions would be very similar to the ECM run.

GFS (right) differs markedly to the north of the UK, as a shallow low prevents a build of high pressure near Iceland. This exists due to the jet stream tracking NE from the Atlantic and passing NW of the UK. If it wasn't for the amplifying tendency expected over the following days, this would threaten to flatten our ridge and introduce unsettled westerlies, but instead we see warm TM air cascading into a decent ridge of high pressure as it languishes across the UK. The net descending motion associated with the high helps to keep a lot of sunshine going despite the high moisture content of the air, and we see temperatures widely into the mid-20's, with scope for 28*C or so in the usual hot-spots of the southeast.

 

As a forecaster who has been producing 'real feel' maps for clients with respect to next week, this disagreement is most unwelcome. I expect the GFS solution would feel up to 5*C warmer than the ECM one (so - feeling hot!).

 

Longer term, ECM just won't stop with the S-tracking low, though it's arrival has again been delayed to late day 9/early day 10. 

GFS is exploring a ridge from the Azores in the 9-10 day range, but then succumbs to the consequences of its outrageous GLAAM projections. As long as those continue to be so extreme, the output in the 11-16 day range can generally be viewed as the worst case scenario.

[William Grimsley]

Thanks, @Summer Sun. Let's hope the model pushes it back even further, hey!

I'm not sure what would happen if this pulled off, but I tell you, those elevated thunderstorms would be meaty if the cap was broken!

[Man With Beard]

The GFS extends the warmth even further now, into the weekend of 11/12 June. The trend seems to be to weaken the trough as it comes up against the mini-block over the UK, and even split it slightly - it has been showing signs of doing so for about 36 hours. 

  

I mentioned earlier this week about this situation perhaps being a test case for the summer - I accept that may be overstating things somewhat, but it is extremely good news to see the models possibly overplaying the Atlantic in the mid-term rather than the other way (if you like hot/sunny weather). 

Still 48 hours or so for the changes to be confirmed, but I'm increasingly confident that any breakdown around the 10th June will be the inconclusive, thundery type, rather than a full transition back to Atlantic frontal dominance, and that any genuine breakdown may not reach us until at least the 12th/13th.

[William Grimsley]

41 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The GFS extends the warmth even further now, into the weekend of 11/12 June. The trend seems to be to weaken the trough as it comes up against the mini-block over the UK, and even split it slightly - it has been showing signs of doing so for about 36 hours. 

  

I mentioned earlier this week about this situation perhaps being a test case for the summer - I accept that may be overstating things somewhat, but it is extremely good news to see the models possibly overplaying the Atlantic in the mid-term rather than the other way (if you like hot/sunny weather). 

Still 48 hours or so for the changes to be confirmed, but I'm increasingly confident that any breakdown around the 10th June will be the inconclusive, thundery type, rather than a full transition back to Atlantic frontal dominance, and that any genuine breakdown may not reach us until at least the 12th/13th.

Even if I don't see any thunderstorms, this upcoming heat will make me happy.

[MR EXTREMES]

afternoon everybody the humid and heat still showing on some of the models mostly gfs,

also a few days back i mentioned a uk scandi combination block as the low drops down threw scandi area you see first signs of a scandi block which is also a common feature during low solar activity and a ever declining el nino.

as tamara suggested the other day theres signs that summer 2016 may well be a fairly different to other unsettled summers also looks like a humid thundery type summer could well be favourite as gibby has been suggesting theres really nothing to dramatic about the weather for awhile except of coarse thundery a sticky.

gfs sees the possiblity of scandi uk ridge which will only aid in holding back lows out to the west of the uk and blocking has been fairly robust recently!

so i would expect without a strong jet like in winter,

lows to the west wont really break threw all that easy well thats my theory anyway...

 

although gefs is a little more messy but still humid at times and more unsettled.

 

ukmo is ok but little hard to workout where to next although ukmo shows a more were stuck in the middle with lower heights to our east northeast weak ridge uk and lows out to our west but we seen this pattern many times,

and 9/10 the blocking is a little more robust than modelled.

 

as for the ecm well thats certainly not welcomed if settled summery weather is what your looking for and the ecm is determined to carry on with bit more atlantic dominance.

although its got to be noted most of the model charts ive posted are fi charts.

 

[johnholmes]

5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Tremendous coup for GFS - Euro agrees that the breakdown is delayed until next weekend on the 00z runs.

 

Warm even hot sun, footy and off work all week for me, three cheers for GFS!!! 

hang on a tick mate, it will be a coup perhaps as you say IF it is correct, that we will not know until next weekend!

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

hang on a tick mate, it will be a coup perhaps as you say IF it is correct, that we will not know until next weekend!

Haha yes, as usual you are quite right John

METO update now talking end of the week for the breakdown which i suspect is a fairly decent call.,.before then heat and some thunderstorms, should be fantastic for most.

[Summer Sun]

GFS is trying its best to keep the low away from us

 

UKMO shows the high starting to lose its grip though it should remain dry for most

[northwestsnow]

LOL GFS delays the breakdown again.

UKMO more progressive at 144 but there is a chance the ridge coming up from the Azores could keep things mainly dry thereafter with a recycling of the pattern.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS 12z tones down the temperatures by a few degrees for next week...much better....into the low twenties rather than the mid to high twenties. Sunny, dry and warm- perfect early summer weather. I reckon the end game will be a UK trough further into June but will enjoy the pleasant weather beforehand.

Further into June I believe we may begin to see a general slide towards heights edging back north as the incoming Nina starts to get its feet under the table, so to speak. What does this mean for us? Well I rather suspect that eventually see the jet meander S of the UK which may allow troughing to become more established primarily towards the W and SW of the UK at first and becoming established more widely as time moves on. 

Typical Nina jet profile above with a strong-ish jet underpinning heights to the N

I concur fully with the individuals who are saying that this isn't currently a sustainable weather regime- we're treading eggshells really. For a more sustained 'locked in' period of heat you'd want to see the jet well N of the UK with a transport of heights N from N Africa and Spain which are then held in place via low heights to our N, rather than a high which displays tendencies to drift even further N than our latitude owing to heights already in situ to our N.

Edited June 3, 2016 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS 12z tones down the temperatures by a few degrees for next week...much better....into the low twenties rather than the mid to high twenties. Sunny, dry and warm- perfect early summer weather. I reckon the end game will be a UK trough further into June but will enjoy the pleasant weather beforehand.

Looks very unstable to me at times, big storms in the mix too..

[Summer Sun]

GEM delays any breakdown till D9 /10 plenty of warm weather on offer before then

Western Scotland and Ireland are likely to see the bulk of any rain next week (exception to this is Tuesday where showers could break out quite widely in the south) before more widespread rain at D10

Edited June 3, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Chris.R]

I for one  don't want it to remain dry. No  meaningful rain for nearly 2 weeks, just constant sun. 

[Gordon Webb]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GEM delays any breakdown till D9 /10 plenty of warm weather on offer before then

Western Scotland and Ireland is likely to see the bulk of any rain next week (exception to this is Tuesday where showers could break out quite widely in the south) before more widespread rain at D10

explains why the met office app had 17 degress and heavy showers for tuesday thought it had a temporary insanity moment