Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[tinybill]

9 hours ago, knocker said:

Not complete agreement on the position of the upper high between the NOAA and ecm anomalies thus same applies to the orientation of the surface high. Suffice it to say looks a pleasant few days with temps above average. Of course the finer evolution is in the detail.

In the 10-15 period not too bad agreement with the proviso the towards the end of the period with the ecm the Atlantic trough becomes more influential as the HP dissipates.

well  all i say is come  to the east coast for the next few  days   it could  be a bit on the cold side for the next few  days!!!

[knocker]

Well since the post you quoted was post six days not really relevant but anyway tomorrow not looking that bad

[knocker]

Still looking okay in the 6-10 period but the ridge breaks down pretty quickly after that as the trough moves in from the west bringing more unsettled weather.

Edited May 28, 2016 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

High pressure builds in next week the east coast will be cooler with some cloud and or mist keeping temps down if the cloud does break the NE'ly flow will keep it fresher elsewhere it looks fine with the highest temps further west

Edited May 28, 2016 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

Still struggling with timing of the rain next week. GFS now plumping the early hours Tuesday.

[Captain Shortwave]

Week 2 continues to hold interest for me in terms of subtle changes. In this regard it is the models suggestion that we could finally see a strengthening ridge building through Iberia and just to the east of the UK. I say this as we are starting to see patterns emerging at the 7-10 day range where 30C could start to look possible.

GFS 

   

Winds veering towards the south east with temperatures pushing into the mid twenties.

The ens show this possibility as well.

ECM ens

   

GFS ens for the 12z

      

Of course this would suggest the chance that eventually the Atlantic trough could get the upper hand but potentially a chance of things improving for eastern areas which could see a rather cool and cloudy week whilst the west is brighter and warmer.

[northwestsnow]

Some wonderful output from GFS/UKMO this evening , GFS advertising some very warm weather as we head through next weekend into the early part of the following week as the ridge settles just to our east.

The only problem is the greeny high and the trough looks destined to spoil things just in time for the Euros, ah well beggars cant be choosers!!

[Captain Shortwave]

36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Some wonderful output from GFS/UKMO this evening , GFS advertising some very warm weather as we head through next weekend into the early part of the following week as the ridge settles just to our east.

The only problem is the greeny high and the trough looks destined to spoil things just in time for the Euros, ah well beggars cant be choosers!!

Hopefully this won't be an  issue as the high retrogrades it leaves a significant ridge over Europe with the jet moving far another north to clear the UK, 

The ECM looks very good at day 8-10

      

Temperatures at day 10 should be into the high twenties by day 10 with temperatures rising further beyond this point, well before the trough starts to gain more influence but again there are signs that we could see our first "hot" spell of the summer coming around the second week of June. That said I prefer the JMA solution as it we get the process developing by next Saturday and hence get a very warm and sunny weekend as opposed to waiting until the following week.

Edited May 28, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[summer blizzard]

The above suggestion seems a logical outcome to me given how unsustainable i consider the current pattern. Either we were going to see retrogression and a horror show or the Pacific was going to inject more energy into the Jet and we were going to see a more traditional N/S pattern which clearly leaves room for a transient hot spell as the high gets pushed east.

[northwestsnow]

Yes the ECM is beautiful and looks sustainable at day 10 IMHO. I'm pretty sure it will have changed by the morning but if the Atlantic trough is held up by the block to our east it could suddenly get very hot as all that heat building over Spain spills north, way to far out to have any confidence of the block winning but maybe its not a done deal ..

[northwestsnow]

24 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Hopefully this won't be an  issue as the high retrogrades it leaves a significant ridge over Europe with the jet moving far another north to clear the UK, 

The ECM looks very good at day 8-10

      

Temperatures at day 10 should be into the high twenties by day 10 with temperatures rising further beyond this point, well before the trough starts to gain more influence but again there are signs that we could see our first "hot" spell of the summer coming around the second week of June. That said I prefer the JMA solution as it we get the process developing by next Saturday and hence get a very warm and sunny weekend as opposed to waiting until the following week.

I'm a tad confused by the BEEB and meto forecasts for next week to be honest, it looks to me like any showers will be killed off by high pressure - i'm hopeful the talk of showers/storms is relaced for mid week onwards.

[Matthew.]

Yes and pressure may rise to the Sw with the Azores high pushing that low away clipping Nw Scotland and missing the bulk of the Uk.

[summer blizzard]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes the ECM is beautiful and looks sustainable at day 10 IMHO. I'm pretty sure it will have changed by the morning but if the Atlantic trough is held up by the block to our east it could suddenly get very hot as all that heat building over Spain spills north, way to far out to have any confidence of the block winning but maybe its not a done deal ..

With heights still strong to the north i doubt we're looking at anything sustained in terms of a block to the south east however a few hot days and a thunderstorm is very possible,

[Summer Sun]

Lots of high pressure on the ECM ens this evening potentially becoming hot later in the run for the south

[Matthew.]

May that Low stall forever onwards!

[knocker]

NOAA and ecm anomalies are in agreement vis HP influence through the 6-10 period although the position of the surface high is yet to be determined.  The EPS 850mb chart at D10 has it in the North Sea with temps around 10C but obviously this will change.

The EPS has the ridge decaying and tracking SE quite rapidly subsequently and by the 10th June the trough is the main player with the winds from the SW and weather more unsettled particularly in the west and north. Not a million miles away from NOAA but a tad more progressive with the trough.

[knocker]

The latest on the arrival of the front.

[knocker]

Looking in the medium term with the GEFS still looking pretty good with the main area of HP centred to the NW and the trough to the south west. As always the smaller scale detail is all important in particular where the surface high is situated. The postion of this, although bringing dry and warm weather to many parts, may allow unstable air to ingress from a southerly quadrant bringing some showers and thundery activity to the south. It could also bring somewhat cooler conditions to the east coast although generally temps are above average. All a tad academic at this range but what the heck.

[knocker]

The ecm has the front East Anglia/Brighton 06z on Tuesday.

 

[knocker]

The EPS 850mb chart is still looking at a breakdown of the HP to the north starting around next Sunday with the wind veering southerly as the trough edges in from the west. This then continues thereafter to a more SW regime. temps initially above average but becoming nearer average.

[Summer Sun]

High pressure rules on this afternoons UKMO best of the temps in the west with the east prone to some stubborn cloud and fresher temps

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

High pressure rules on this afternoons UKMO best of the temps in the west with the east prone to some stubborn cloud and fresher temps

Looks great Gavin, can see the trough of despair lurking at 144 though..

[northwestsnow]

ECM looks blinking gorgeous with the trough unable to break through out to day9, very warm across much of Europe as the euro high drags up the southerlies

By day 10 the ridge is kind of beaten but no! Another ridge thrown up from the azores pushes the jet north,if it turns out anything like that run i think many of us will be happy

Edited May 29, 2016 by northwestsnow

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All. Gfs screams thunder storm potential especially for southern Britain by the end of the week........Bring it on!

[draztik]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM looks blinking gorgeous with the trough unable to break through out to day9, very warm across much of Europe as the euro high drags up the southerlies

By day 10 the ridge is kind of beaten but no! Another ridge thrown up from the azores pushes the jet north,if it turns out anything like that run i think many of us will be happy

I suppose that would depend where you are...

For large parts of England, the ECM shows suppressed temps under leaden skies. 

For Ireland, N.Ireland in particular, a sunny & warm next 8 days if this model is right. After last summer, the NW rejoices.