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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016


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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Slightly more confident June will start reasonably now, esp the further north and west you are. Hoping GFS is overcooking the low - euros look better and have it further east than gfs.

Still a bit worried that the models are going for height rises across northern lats as we head into FI, can see a trough landing over us or near enough to turn things wet longer term..

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Growing support for a powerful ridge in our vicinity. Many (not all, I'm afriad) longer range products seem to indicate the upper levels of the troposphere lending strong support to a surface high centred somewhere in our part of the world as we head on into June.

The big question is, can the low heights over Europe ease away to allow the ridge to settle over the UK by the end of the first week? In such a scenario there's some scope for a particularly dry period of a fortnight or so, hopefully warm too. It's been a long time since things last worked out that way, though!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
41 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Slightly more confident June will start reasonably now, esp the further north and west you are. Hoping GFS is overcooking the low - euros look better and have it further east than gfs.

Still a bit worried that the models are going for height rises across northern lats as we head into FI, can see a trough landing over us or near enough to turn things wet longer term..

I can't really see evidence of this coming closer to the reliable timeframe though, a lot of people are saying it but I think that's driven by fears of repeats of the horror summers of recent times. I've called it the 2007 syndrome in the past. Northern blocking hasn't really been a major feature of our summers for some time.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A slow moving outlook, with a NE airstream dominating - the opposite to the normal westerly patttern, but not unusual for the time of year, indeed such synoptics are more likely to occur now than at any other stage of the year, helped in large part by a reduction in thermal temp contrasts between the azores and the arctic - hence we often see a weak ineffectual jetstream but conversely depending on where it sits, we can stay stuck under slow moving weak shallow low pressure systems and trough features that take an eternity to fizzle, much as is shown in the next 24-36 hours where a very weak trough/front feature will sit in situ over N England and simply fizzle away - quite unusual..

Bank Holiday weekend will see a NW-SE split, and again departure from the norm, the NW will see the driest sunniest weather and in sheltered western parts temps will be very good indeed. East coast set to suffer with cool cloudy conditions, but it does look mostly dry. Much will depend on how the euro trough behaves, it may bring some light patchy rain to some SE parts but most likely will aid convection and some hefty showery localised downpours.

Early June looking very pleasant overall away from eastern coastal parts, plenty of dry quiet weather, temps average or a little above, but some cool nights. A good time to book a holiday to western scotland.

Synoptical patterns at this time of year are often very different to those come the second half of the summer, when the NW-SE flip often occurs with often the poorest conditions reserved for the NW. There is a reason why Scotland starts its summer holidays 2-3 weeks earlier than England.. we in Cumbria should do the same.. mid May - early July is by far more likely to deliver settled conditions than mid July-late August in the NW quarter of the country thanks to less likelihood of the dreaded southwesterlies - an airstream that brings no good fortune to such parts.

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Summary would perhaps be, better the further NW one is in the 144-168 hour period?

This summary from me seems the most likely 6-10 day pattern nicely illustrated by NOAA 6-10 below.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Much as Singularity quoted in his 1st paragraph shown below for the detail at the surface, still to be decided

Growing support for a powerful ridge in our vicinity. Many (not all, I'm afriad) longer range products seem to indicate the upper levels of the troposphere lending strong support to a surface high centred somewhere in our part of the world as we head on into June.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The EPS 6-10 is very similar to NOAA and a likely change by Wednesday.The 850mb chart has the low Romania  Wednesday although the circulation is rather elongated,

The 10-15 has the ridge over the UK into Iceland. Ergo fine with temps a little above average.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pngecm_eps_z500a_eur_9.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
10 hours ago, Singularity said:

 

The big question is, can the low heights over Europe ease away to allow the ridge to settle over the UK by the end of the first week? In such a scenario there's some scope for a particularly dry period of a fortnight or so, hopefully warm too. It's been a long time since things last worked out that way, though!

Im hoping the area of HP will move over Central England and lead to some great weather just as in April 2015 and second half of September 2015. Temperatures would respond well and would be around 25c max but a cool 9c at night.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS continues to advertise a slack Easterly type flow until around the turn of the Month/Season, Where High Pressure then looks to push up from the S/W bringing much clearer and warmer/settled weather across the British Isles for the start of Summer.

a.pngb.pngc.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm this morning has the low pressure area Germany south east to south east Europe Tuesday 00z, with the area of rain orientated southern Norway to Calais and just impinging on the south east of the UK. Within 24 hours the low pressure has moved west into France and fragmented precipitation follows and outbreaks could occur over most of the UK. Thereafter a drier regime sets in as the low pressure dissipates.

ecm_mslp_uv850_eur_8.png

The GEFS anomaly still looking okay for a few days of good and quite warm weather thereafter.

gefs_z500a_5d_eur_53.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM also develops a mega Greenland block by day 9 and 10 - though with the trough stalled out to the west, the weather wouldn't be too bad at all. I guess it all depends where said trough ends up (should that prognosis develop) as to what we end up with here.

The GFS OP today was one of the warmer outcomes, with the vast majority of members favouring temperatures nearer average.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 25TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure lies to the North of the UK with a frontal trough moving West over Central areas later today while the NE flow to the South of it fall slack and more variable tomorrow as more humid air advances from the South across Southern Britain..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some thundery rain or showers at times but plenty of dry and fine weather too this especially in the North. Occasionally warm in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to feature largely to the South of the UK over the next few weeks although it's strength is for the most part very weak and it maybe that the placement of it is not overall very influential in fast moving weather changes with a lot of quiet and benign weather patterns near the UK especially later in the period.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of slack pressure conditions likely over and around the UK over the next few weeks. Putting some meat on the bones shows Low pressure edging up from the South through the Bank Holiday weekend with some warm, humid and showery air gradually displaced by rising pressure next week from the South with some dry and warm weather next week especially over the South. Then in the second week the theme is for High pressure to build strongly to the North and NE with Low pressure to the SW setting up a warm and dry ESE flow with any thundery showers restricted to the extreme SW with dry, warm and sunny conditions elsewhere.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows a very similar sequence of events with High pressure gradually building North across the UK next week as the thundery Low to the SE at the end of the Bank Holiday Weekend moves North away from the UK and weakens. Then after a theme of dry and relatively warm weather for a while this run shows a return of slack Low pressure areas moving into the UK with more showers at times towards the latter days of the period.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The clustering today continues to show quite a mixed pattern with the bias today on lower pressure over higher pressure more likely than not to be influential at the 14 day point. What is less clear is it's position in relation to the UK and where and if how much affect in the way of cloud and rain it would bring.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a slack Easterly flow across the Bank Holiday weekend with some thundery showers possible at times in the South. Then over the first few days of next week a deep Low to the SE brushes the East and SE of the UK with the risk of more persistent rain and a cool NE wind while showers continue elsewhere under the slack pressure gradients still present over the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show High pressure to the North over the next 5 days with the theme of the raw data mirrored by the fax Charts this morning as pressure is biased lower to the South and East and higher to the NW.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM The theme of GEM this morning shows a continued theme of High pressure to the North and Low pressure to the South throughout it's run this morning with the Low pressure to the South edging up into Britain later with showers and thunderstorms a common risk across the South with a lot of dry and fine weather across the North where it will be warm at times in the sheltered West and out of the Light east flow coming into Eastern coasts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows showery Low pressure to the South and then SE giving the risk of showers over the weekend over Southern Britain. Things then dry up for all as the Low pressure moves away NE over Europe and pressure builds across the UK with fine and sunny weather developing for the midweek period next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today is maintaining the pattern of High pressure to the North strengthening next week with Low pressure to the South throughout. Although overall a lot of dry and fine weather is likely especially over the North and NW the lower pressure to the South and SE at times continues to promote a strong risk of showers at times, heavy in places but even here some dry and fine, warm conditions look likely with the showers dying down somewhat towards the end of the run as High pressure ridges down from the North although this could be accompanied by a cooler and fresher feel by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night has changed little in theme over recent days with the UK seemingly lying in nomansland pressure wise with showers possible in a lot of overall dry and bright conditions as no one pressure area high or low has overall control of the UK weather at day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There remains no strong desire for the models as a whole to remove Northern blocking High pressure over the next few weeks at least, leading to an East or NE flow being maintained with thundery showers in the South to remain the main theme between the models for some considerable time.  

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 86.6 pts and GFS at 85.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.2 pts to 52.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 38.0 pts to 33.9 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  As I explained in detail yesterday and is mirrored again by this morning's output changes are slow and subtle across the UK over the next few weeks. High pressure remains locked well north of the UK with the UK lying in a position too far away for it to have overall control of our weather as Low pressure over nearby Europe continues to push some influence towards at least the Southern half of England and wales over the coming week. This means the North would see the best conditions away from the North sea coast with sunshine most prominent in the west of Scotland. Further South cloud will be more evident but under some warm and humid air imported from the South conditions will feel quite pleasant in the ample dry weather present but this could be punctuated by thundery showers at times too, more likely on some days than others. Then as we look into the second week there is some encouragement from some output that High pressure ridges across the UK removing the  shower risk from the South with many areas seeing a dry and fine spell. However, there seems little indication from the output of any meaningful sense of a pattern reset away from High latitude blocking so any changes are likely to result in more Low pressure to the South or SW rather than North or NW so a similar scenario of weather to that expected in the coming days could be replicated. This is a long way off though and it's important to say that there is no dramatic weather conditions expected over the next few weeks and for many a lot of the time could end up very pleasant so let's enjoy this late Spring pattern conditions that will continue to promote a strong growing season over the next few weeks.

Next Update Thursday May 26th 2016 from 09:00

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Euro not without its ally..

GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm 6-10 showing five days of HP in charge but looking further afield by the 9th June the Atlantic trough lies just to the west although not introducing anything diabolical weather wise.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol/South East
  • Location: Bristol/South East
16 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I can't really see evidence of this coming closer to the reliable timeframe though, a lot of people are saying it but I think that's driven by fears of repeats of the horror summers of recent times. I've called it the 2007 syndrome in the past. Northern blocking hasn't really been a major feature of our summers for some time.

Also most of the summers of the late 00s - early 10s (2010 being the best of the bunch in my opinion) were characterised by reaching a solar minimum which along with northern blocking and months of the Jet Stream tracking predominatley South made for a number of years of cool, wet summers but the flipside back then was colder drier winters. 

Secondly, nature has to re balance itself. After having endured 4 months of Atlantic low pressure systems constantly bulldozing over the UK with the Jet Stream stuck to the South in Winter, as we saw in Summer 2014, the Jet has to move North or at least not be stuck predominantley South for longer periods of time allowing for longer periods of settled weather vs the previous pattern of unsettled weather.

Looking at the models, already June is looking like it could come off as an excellent summer month. The Met Office and Beeb's monthly outlook are also now both backing a seemingly warm and settled June. Hopefully the prospect of a European ridge of High Pressure including the UK becomes a trend :)

 

Edited by wishingforsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
3 hours ago, wishingforsnow said:

Also most of the summers of the late 00s - early 10s (2010 being the best of the bunch in my opinion) were characterised by reaching a solar minimum which along with northern blocking and months of the Jet Stream tracking predominatley South made for a number of years of cool, wet summers but the flipside back then was colder drier winters. 

Secondly, nature has to re balance itself. After having endured 4 months of Atlantic low pressure systems constantly bulldozing over the UK with the Jet Stream stuck to the South in Winter, as we saw in Summer 2014, the Jet has to move North or at least not be stuck predominantley South for longer periods of time allowing for longer periods of settled weather vs the previous pattern of unsettled weather.

Looking at the models, already June is looking like it could come off as an excellent summer month. The Met Office and Beeb's monthly outlook are also now both backing a seemingly warm and settled June. Hopefully the prospect of a European ridge of High Pressure including the UK becomes a trend :)

 

The same can be said for the mid 1980's. Terrible cool Summers but cold Winters. Is there a link? who knows for sure but it is interesting. However on the flip side one could argue about 1990 & 1995 - both decent Summers but the Winters that followed had quite a bit of cold and snow in them.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden

Someone in here said that years when a strong El nino transit to La nina it will be much more precipitation than normal, it sounds like it can be true, just look at the summers 2007, 2012. Besides the summer overall for west europé is mostly humid and cool if you look at climate maps ( just seems like some people belive it can be actually warmth)

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Meanwhile back to current model outputs from the 12z run and much of Europe and at times parts of the UK will see some rain or showers during the next week or so under the influence of low pressure becoming slow moving across the continent extending from the  Mid Atlantic.

Days 4 and 5

UW96-21.gifgfs-0-120.png

The Scandinavian high rather too far north to keep things settled further south although Scotland looks ok.

Monday itself looks rather wet for southern parts of the UK

gfs_mslp_pcpn_eu_20.png

that's still 5 days away so hopefully the surface detail changes for the better although that quite extensive area of continental low pressure remains uncomfortably close for a number of days.

A week of warm sunshine and showers seems the general theme for the south with further north looking drier although as ever at this time of year the east coast will be at risk of north sea low cloud at times in the easterly flow..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

By 12z Monday the ecm has the low Belgium with rain band lying across East Anglia. In the next 24 hours the belt of rain swings SW affecting most of England ending across the south west and the low Northeast France. In the next 24 hours the low moves south and dissipates leaving most of the UK in a light NE.

ecm_mslp_uv850_eur_7.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I'm surprised there are so few positive comments about the outlook for next week- it really does look good and the models are now making less of that low for the beginning of next week. Especially so if you're further west- I imagine NW Scotland could do very well again from the setup being shown by the ECM for next week and possibly Northern Ireland. It also becomes gradually slacker through the week as high pressure takes control, with winds gradually diminishing.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm surprised there are so few positive comments about the outlook for next week- it really does look good and the models are now making less of that low for the beginning of next week. Especially so if you're further west- I imagine NW Scotland could do very well again from the setup being shown by the ECM for next week and possibly Northern Ireland. It also becomes gradually slacker through the week as high pressure takes control, with winds gradually diminishing.

I agree, Scorcher. With the notable exceptions of today's dross and next Monday-Tuesday's potential soaking, the next ten days look to be rather warm and, at times, quite sunny - if a touch humid in the sarf? And it's only May!:D

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I agree, Scorcher. With the notable exceptions of today's dross and next Monday-Tuesday's potential soaking, the next ten days look to be rather warm and, at times, quite sunny - if a touch humid in the sarf? And it's only May!:D

With a touch of June after Tuesday. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
26 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm surprised there are so few positive comments about the outlook for next week- it really does look good and the models are now making less of that low for the beginning of next week. Especially so if you're further west- I imagine NW Scotland could do very well again from the setup being shown by the ECM for next week and possibly Northern Ireland. It also becomes gradually slacker through the week as high pressure takes control, with winds gradually diminishing.

I've just watched the beebs weekly forecast they are showing low pressure moving right across the UK

454646.png

I'll give the models another day or 2 to get into full agreement I think

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Tonight's ECM ens show higher pressure holding on next week with the low slowly easing away

Reem1441.gifReem1681.gifReem1921.gifReem2161.gifReem2401.gif

 

Lets see what the models show tomorrow ECM certainly isn't following the beebs thoughts for now....

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I've just watched the beebs weekly forecast they are showing low pressure moving right across the UK

454646.png

I'll give the models another day or 2 to get into full agreement I think

Just watched that one, myself...If it's thundery showers you like (like me) yay!!!

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