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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Regarding the GFS this morning it has to be noted it's no longer running with the build up of HP after next weekend which isn't a complete surprise although of course it could revert later!

So back to this week. It has the low on Thursday tracking NE tus the wet and windy weather confined to Scotland and N. Ireland. After that it's downhill all the way. A succession of systems tacking up from the WSW to affect the whole of the UK culminating with a quite deep depression on Saturday which deepens quite rapidly as it approaches the south west. See Vorticity's post yesterday re. left exit of the jet. Post this depression there is very brief ridging before systems resume tracking in from the west.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_15.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_20.pnggfs_uv200_atl_18.png

gfs_uv200_atl_19.png

Regarding the latest EC32 the brief description of the EPS last evening is not that wide of the mark. As wee move into June perhaps the Azores HP will become more influential portending some more settled weather.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO this morning shows an unsettled weekend with the potential for some strong winds and heavy rain

Rukm961.gifRukm1201.gif

Into Monday the low slowly pulls away allowing pressure to rise in the south but it remains unsettled in the north with further spells of rain or showers

Rukm1441.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Tomasz Schafernaker was talking about this last night on the BBC, saying they are confident of at least high pressure dominating the south, with perhaps the whole country being underneath (small chance). I wouldn't be quite so sure yet, the models still aren't in agreement, and after last weeks false dawn, I shall remain sceptical until it's right under our noses!

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
2 hours ago, knocker said:

Regarding the latest EC32 the brief description of the EPS last evening is not that wide of the mark. As wee move into June perhaps the Azores HP will become more influential portending some more settled weather.

Yes Knock, The GFS has also been hinting a more settled outlook for the turn of the Month, With High Pressure pushing up from the S/E over the last couple of runs. So certainly something worth keeping an eye on as we head into the 1st month of Summer..

a.png

Some very mobile weather to get through first as Lows spin in off the Atlantic over the next 7-10 days. 

c.pngb.png

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Although the ecm is another unsettled run it does vary in detail a fair bit from the gfs. For example it takes Saturdays depression north of Scotland rather than a deep low over the UK. Still wet and windy but such a divergence at this short range is not good. Frankly the end of the run is a bit of a dog's breakfast and probably best left for the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 17TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will move East across the UK over the next 24 hours or so repeated again on the remaining days of the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK for the rest of the week will remain in the range of 5000-8000ft for the rest of the week as troughs cross East across the UK ebbing and flowing the level up and down.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The slack Jet flow currently will strengthen across the Atlantic and move towards Western Britain soon and then become established across Southern Britain and to the South as Low pressure lies close by. Then through the second week the pattern weakens and breaks up as High pressure develops to the North and the Jet stream becomes weak and ill defined on it's location. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the weather deteriorating over the UK in the coming days as Low pressure moves in from the West with showers and longer spells of rain coupled with strong winds at times lasting well into the weekend with temperatures near average. Winds will become strong too at the weekend before pressure rises to the SE and the rain and unsettled theme becomes more and more restricted to the NW. Then late in the period High pressure develops and settles to the NE of the UK and with lower pressure then to the South a warm or very warm and humid Easterly flow develops with thundery showers across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things rather differently this morning in the second week but with the same unsettled and later windy period at the weekend. Through the second week this run shows pressure becoming slack across the UK with some showers in places at times while there will be plenty of dry and relatively warm spells at times for all as well.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today look not too bad if it's fine weather your after in 14 days as there is a lot of High pressure shown near the UK at that time, albeit somewhat slack in nature. Only around 10% of model runs from GFS indicate Low pressure to the NW and rain at times this morning. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows an unsettled spell developing for the UK for the rest of the week peaking on Saturday as rain at times culminates in a spell of wet and windy weather on Saturday with strong winds in places too. Then things start to improve from the SW on Sunday before Monday sees remaining unsettled weather across the North while dry and bright weather moves into more Southern areas from the SW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs moving bodily East across the Uk for the rest of the week with rain at times for all, some heavy and accompanied by strong winds at the weekend especially across Northern and western Britain.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM The theme of GEM too is for Low pressure to bring a change to Westerly winds and rain at times later today onward with some heavy rain at times for all coupled with strong winds for a time at the weekend. Then after the weekend warmer air moves North across the UK as pressure rises to the east backing winds towards the South. This means that warm and humid weather looks likely next week with Low pressure to the West and High pressure to the East with a few thundery showers at times in the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows unsettled weather with rain at times from today with some strong Westerly winds at times especially at the weekend. Then as we move into the new week Low pressure edges away to the NE allowing higher pressure and better weather to slowly extend North and East across the UK in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today also shows the unsettled period from today as Low pressure troughs and Low pressure move across the UK from the West. This unsettled period lasts through the weekend when some strong winds look likely especially on Saturday. Then as the run moves through next week it shows Low pressure anchoring down to the SW for a time before filling up and bringing some potentially thundery rain at times to the South with the driest weather switching towards the North.  

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across the Atlantic and higher pressure to the East while Southerly winds bring relatively warm and probably humid conditions with the risk of showery rain at times especially across the West and NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today continue to paint a more unsettled phase of weather to come before things probably become drier and warmer later especially in the SE.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.9 pts to UKMO at 86.9 pts and GFS at 84.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 60.5 pts to 48.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 42.4 pts to 34.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models today continue to bring much more unsettled conditions to the UK commencing over the next day or so. All areas can expect some rain, moving in from the West late today and continuing through the rest of the week and the weekend when winds could become a feature too for a time with Westerly gales in exposure. Temperatures will be close to average by day but much less cool than recently by night with the risk of frost finally eliminated. Then after this unsettled phase and looking towards next week we should see slow improvements take place most likely from the South with any further rain restricted more and more towards the NW with the chance of some warm conditions in the SE at least. Low pressure always looks likely to remain either to the NW or SW of the UK so the Western extremities of the UK could see some further rain at times, perhaps thundery if Low pressure lies to the SW with warm weather extending to many parts of the UK should that become the case. So getting through the next 5-6 days of rain at times may well be the precursor to slow improvements towards warmer and more settled conditions especially over the East and SE and with winds largely blowing from a Southerly source temperatures never look likely to be a problem in the next few weeks. 

Next Update Wednesday May 18th 2016 from 09:00

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I think the form horse it is for a fairly unsettled spell in the 6-15 day period. This however, as is often the case, more so for the NW and less so for the SE and possibly more so with time.Sorry not time to post charts but the usual ones seem to support this idea.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Indeed the 5-10 period is as one would expect This continues into the 10-15 with the proviso as we approach June and the retrogressing and weakening Atlantic trough there is room for heights to build adjacent to the UK. So indications of warmer and drier weather in the south. perhaps spreading north as the month concludes.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The GEFS this morning has caught my eye. Looking at the GFS op at T240, which suddenly plucks out a stalled trough off the west of Ireland dragging up a southerly, you could think just one of those things that happens in FI:

gfs-0-240.png?0

.. until you study the whole GEFS ensemble set, with 15 out of 21 members stalling a significant trough in a very similar place at the same timeframe - I could post any of them but for space sake I'll just post this one:

gens-6-1-252.png   

Note the 850s mean gets close to 10C around that time for London, and not masses of rain (you need to click the link below to see):

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

ECM mean not as dramatic but clearly favouring an Atlantic trough too, more low pressure influence on this one but could easily go the same way afterwards:

EDM1-240.GIF?17-12

Given the recent tendency for the models not to see the full strength of the Atlantic until a nearer timeframe, more runs are certainly needed - but as far as we can see right now, heatwave conditions are definitely one of the options for the Bank Holiday weekend. If it's still looking like this by Saturday, get the suncream and the BBQ prepared.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Absolutely - we could have another 'heat pump' low like we had recently that gave 27c, albeit in a slightly different place this time. Given the big uncertainty of how the low pressure in the nearer time frame is likely to develop, we can't really look too much further down the line at present. A nice warm/hot bank holiday would be grand though!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Pretty disastrous set of 12z runs, instead of a building high at 144 that was shown earlier, we now have low pressure dominating, with no heat build either. Something needs to change on the 00z tomorrow or were up the creek!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

We certainly need a more robust ridge building to our east in the 5-7 day timeframe. The ECM shows how unlucky you can be with weak ridging in Europe with blocking over Scandinavia/Svalbard with low pressure managing to squeeze through the gap and unfortunately going through the UK, albeit as rather slack features.

ECM1-144.GIF?17-0   ECM1-192.GIF?17-0   ECM1-240.GIF?17-0

It wouldn't take too much to change things for the better though. 

The GEFs still keen on something better developing through week 2

gens-21-5-192.png   gens-21-5-240.png   gens-21-5-300.png

Heights building to our east with low pressure centred to our west/south west. Still a long way off though.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:

 

The GEFs still keen on something better developing through week 2

gens-21-5-192.png   gens-21-5-240.png   gens-21-5-300.png

Heights building to our east with low pressure centred to our west/south west. Still a long way off though.

Something not that different to the ideas shown on GFS this morning and NOAA this evening on their 500mb anomaly charts

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM is truly horrendous this morning - a pocket of cool air gets stuck over the UK with low pressure dominating. Very mixed messages again......the Beeb still pushing that high pressure will establish at least across the south. None of the runs agree at all, so yet again anything past 96 hours or so is bin fodder. Anything extrapolated from this shaky start is sure to be even more wrong!

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 18TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Showery Low pressure will move across Southern England today clearing away East tonight with further fronts moving across from the West in a westerly flow tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain above all summits across the UK over the coming days basically in the range of 5000-8000ft.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream will be focused on moving in a NE'ly direction either over Southern England or the near continent for much of the coming period as it responds to pressure being Low to the West and later SW of the UK with periods in between when the flow disrupts somewhat and becomes light and ill defined. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows the weather as very changeable over the coming few weeks with a very showery and perhaps windy period at the weekend melting into somewhat better conditions through next week more especially towards the North as pressure rises. The South may see further showery spells of weather perhaps thundery in places before this transfers further North later with a warm and drier phase for the South although the theme of maintaining a theme of higher pressure towards the North remains at the close of the run. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things rather differently this morning in the second week with High pressure more likely to lie towards a point to the South of the UK with the best conditions there with some warm sunshine at times whereas in the North conditions remain Atlantic governed with rain at times in SW winds.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today again looks High pressure biased for the period in 14 days time with a centre likely lying to the West and SW with fine and being conditions likely for many across the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning seems to be changing daily within it's outer limits of time. Today a very showery end to the weekend drifts into better conditions next week as High pressure builds from the SW by the early part of next week with dry and bright weather steadily extending to all areas by Tuesday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a concoction of troughs moving across the UK over the next 5 days with each one bringing an intensification of the showers or spells of rain all mixed in with some brighter and drier interludes too.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM The theme of GEM shows conditions shaping up much like UKMO this morning up to Day 6 with better conditions developing under High pressure next week as it moves up from the SW. Then later next week Low pressure to the SW pushes the ridge away towards the North and east with the risk of thundery showers returning to the South and West. However, a ridge from the High looks as though it could attempt to maintain a lot of fine and dry weather for many areas right out to the second weekend with any showers restricted to the far West later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too follows a similar path as far as it goes out to this time next week with things improving under rising pressure early next week with showers dying out before potentially returning to the far South and SW later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today is less keen on developing extensive High pressure next week instead preferring to keep rather slack pressure conditions across the UK with the highest pressure towards the North while slack Low pressure over and to the Southeast of the UK maintains the risk of heavy showers at times with temperatures close to or perhaps a but above the seasonal average at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across the Eastern Atlantic and higher pressure to the East while Southerly winds bring relatively warm and probably humid conditions with the risk of showery rain at times especially across the West and NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today show a slow path to rather better conditions under higher pressure to return as we move through next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.2 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.7 pts to UKMO at 86.7 pts and GFS at 84.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 59.3 pts to 48.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 40.3 pts to 33.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There is still a lot of indecision in the details of the pattern as we  move out of this current very unsettled and sometimes wet period likely over the coming days and weekend. The risk of high winds at the weekend has subsided somewhat as the depth of Low pressure seems to be reduced somewhat with isobars further apart as a result. nevertheless all areas look at risk of heavy rain and showers at times between now and the start of next week. Then as the Low pressure areas move away to the NE pressure is shown to rise from the SW. This is shown by all models but in varying degrees of extent and significance for conditions across the UK for the rest of next week. The general theme should be for these better conditions to reach the SW on Monday extending to all areas by midweek but there are differences on opinion on how long and to what extent this fine weather lasts and in what areas. The main theme appears to be that the High pressure area drifts to the NE of the UK with low pressure developing down to the SW spreading a risk of showers back up into Southern and SW Britain later next week. Some output then shows this becoming the main driving force of the weather as this showery theme reaches more areas later. However, some output shows this High pressure lasting rather linger and to more areas with the GFS Clusters showing much support for High pressure influential across Britain by Day 14. However, having said all that the jury is still out on the details from say Tuesday of next week so expect more shifts in model output towards better or worse scenarios over the coming days. At least temperatures look like being respectable for most parts through the period so nothing too alarmist to report upon this morning for those farmers and growers in the next few weeks as the growing season accelerates in earnest. 

Next Update Thursday May 19th 2016 from 09:00

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Continuing my look at the Bank Holiday weekend then - Not a great deal of change overall compared with yesterday. By T240, about 60% of GEFS members on the 00Z still stalling a low far enough to the west of Ireland to encourage southerlies for most, with significant enough similarity to take seriously as a cluster. The ECM mean at this range, like yesterday, a little further east with the pattern - but the means are similar enough really:

EDM1-240.GIF?18-12  gens-21-1-240.png

So a betting man would still be putting money on above average temperatures, though a 50/50 call on whether that be hot and dry, or warm with frontal interruptions (the chances of frontal activity increase quickly as one heads west)

All rather similar to the NOAA outlook from last night:

814day.03.gif

The ECM op this morning should not be taken too literally in my opinion. It's a bit of a freak that England/Wales is the only spot under a tiny continual cold pool within 1000 miles in any direction! And at the timeframes involved, you'd hope we'd have a decent chance of seeing the warmer air around us instead, seeing that in general, there isn't too much cold air around.

ECM0-168.GIF?18-12   ECM0-192.GIF?18-12   ECM0-216.GIF?18-12

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

6z has high pressure much more in control in the medium term (5-8 days), if slightly cool. Looks like everything is hinging on the low to the SW, and how it interacts with the jet. If it pushes a bit further east then we are in no-mans land, if it stays out west we have a chance of some warmth.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
17 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

6z has high pressure much more in control in the medium term (5-8 days), if slightly cool. Looks like everything is hinging on the low to the SW, and how it interacts with the jet. If it pushes a bit further east then we are in no-mans land, if it stays out west we have a chance of some warmth.

Yes, the 06Z has returned to flirting with the idea of a warm up towards the end of the next week as we pull up a southeasterly flow while that low hangs about to the SW of the UK.

In the short term, whichever way you look at it, it's looking unsettled through to and throughout the weekend. Monday-Tuesday next week looks like the start of the uncertainty to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

6z has high pressure much more in control in the medium term (5-8 days), if slightly cool. Looks like everything is hinging on the low to the SW, and how it interacts with the jet. If it pushes a bit further east then we are in no-mans land, if it stays out west we have a chance of some warmth.

Indeed,  after this unsettled period over the medium term outlook is all down to that area of low pressure to the South West. 

As you say,  how far East it gets could be the difference between very wet and very warm and dry. 

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
3 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

The ECM op this morning should not be taken too literally in my opinion. It's a bit of a freak that England/Wales is the only spot under a tiny continual cold pool within 1000 miles in any direction! And at the timeframes involved, you'd hope we'd have a decent chance of seeing the warmer air around us instead, seeing that in general, there isn't too much cold air around.

Deterministic is really underlining the base of the spread.

04396c52370fe19a36b11d51d75d044b.png

Plenty room for improvement - at least I hope so - in the UK with the grandchildren and hoping for better than that for outdoor activities.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
1 hour ago, Nouska said:

Deterministic is really underlining the base of the spread.

04396c52370fe19a36b11d51d75d044b.png

Plenty room for improvement - at least I hope so - in the UK with the grandchildren and hoping for better than that for outdoor activities.

Yes Nouska the outlook even in week 2 is still rather ordinary based on current ens outputs.

I think we are still looking at a generally changeable pattern with the hope that some of the ridging hangs on for more than a day or so.This looks more a possibility at times after this week when this current spell of low pressure starts to move on.

The GFS 06z mean at day 10 shows a slow moving trough just out west which is similar to the ECM mean really.

gens-21-1-240.png

so we may get lucky if the high pressure stalls or builds off the continent especially further south and east.Hopefully we get an improved outlook by month end for the Bank Holiday.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol/South East
  • Location: Bristol/South East

If anything, the Met are still confident of a high pressure build up. The question is when will it occur? Whether that happens at the end of the month or in June remains uncertain as it appears it all hinges on a stalling trough to the west of the UK to potentially draw up high pressure and warm air from the continent. If this happens, Bank Holiday weekend and the start of June could be seeing some warm/hot conditions across the UK once again as we saw during the beginning-middle of the month. As ever though, more runs needed. However in my opinion, if it doesn't happen in time for Bank Holiday, there is scope for high pressure influence further into June as the Met Office is bullishly backing considering how hot Europe is set to become. The cold pool out in the North Atlantic has shrunk so I'd say we won't be missing out on the warmth over Mainland Europe as much as we did during Summer 2015 :)

Before then, looks like we will have to endure an unsettled weekend with conditions slowly improving and hopefully becoming gradually warmer and more settled as we end the month. The olive branch for the immediate period is that the strength of the low pressure and risk of high winds this weekend appears to have been reduced. So although rain for all at some point during the weekend, at least it won't feel so autumnal as earlier model runs for this weekend were showing. Ensembles for London show mid/high teens after the unsettled weekend but creeping up to the 20s again (though my gut feeling is that it will be slightly warmer than the ensembles are currently showing for the last week of May). I agree Monday/Tuesday is the start of the 'no mans land' weather period right now. 

Edited by wishingforsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Very poor ecm again tonight, it really is standing it's ground and has been very consistent in not wanting to develop anything warmer and drier. Big stand off, who is going to come out the other side with credit??

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Very poor ecm again tonight, it really is standing it's ground and has been very consistent in not wanting to develop anything warmer and drier. Big stand off, who is going to come out the other side with credit??

I think you're overreacting to individual runs...yes it's not a great run but it's pretty standard fare for the UK in the reliable time frame. The 'poor' conditions you talk about are in FI- and even then we end up on a knife edge- it wouldn't take much to tip that setup into a very favourable one for us with the trough setting up the SW of the UK, similar to what the GFS is showing. It's certainly not as bad a run as we saw from the ECM this morning.

I still believe we will see an improvement from around Tuesday onwards next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Possibly....the Beeb long ranger tonight has backtracked somewhat from the last 2 nights as well, in stating that low pressure will have more of an influence than thought. I'm not sure why they pushed the envelope on the high pressure scenario the last 2 days, it was never as clear cut as they were making it out, and I'm surprised they pretty much committed to that outcome amongst this much uncertainty! Even a rank amateur such as myself could see that was a tad foolhardy.

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