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Nick F

Severe Risk - TX/OK/KS 29/04/2016

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Thought I would start a thread for Friday's severe risk across Texas, Oklahoma and perhaps Kansas - which could easily produce more tornadoes than Tuesday's bust.

A negatively-tilted upper low at 500mb swings in across the southern Rockies, a strong 500mb 70knt+ jet rounds the base of the trough and enters NW TX and Wern OK atop of a warm sector spreading north across Texas and Oklahoma to east of dryline across Wern TX, with 70F DPs reaching as far north as southern OK by 00z Sat (18z CDT) and mid 60s across the rest of Oklahoma.

GFSUS_500_spd_030.pngGFSSGP_sfc_dewp_036.png

A surface low moves east across the TX Pahandle while warm front lifts north across OK to the east, GFS develops around 2500-3000 j/kg CAPE along I-40 west of OK City and I-35 corridor south of OK City in the warm sector. Sfc winds backed the most along I-40 at 18z CDT, near the parallel warm front - so west of OK City toward the TX Panhandle could be decent initial target IMO.

hpc_24_fcst.gifGFSSGP_con_sbcape_036.png

However, reality may not be as straight forward as the models suggest. Firstly, isentropic lift of warm moist southerly conveyor north of warm front is forecast to produce widespread elevated storms/convection overnight, so the detritus from this may hamper recovery of the atmosphere and hinder development on Friday. And although overnight crapvection should clear northeast from Wern OK and NW TX, the warm sector looks weakly capped, so potential that storms will develop too readily/widespread near the dryline and interact too much with each other to allow tornadoes to form. Also, the cold front could catch up the dryline too quickly to allow storms to stay discrete.

But, if storms can stay discrete, they will be well-vented by the strong upper winds to stop them turning HP quickly and the Hodographs look quite favourable for tornadoes too, OK City for example.

Edited by Nick F

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day1otlk_1200.gifday1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

Upgrade to Enhanced Risk for later today: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Quite a complicated picture, overnight/morning convection needs to clear sharpish to allow atmosphere to recover, plus profles look weakily capped - so could be a lot of storms popping up and competing with each other, which tends to lessen tornado potential. Warm front moving north over Oklahoma or triple point over W/NW Oklahoma could be best place for backed surface winds and thus tornado potential. Dryline option too, though would be concerned that cold front could overtake it too quickly to allow storms to stay discrete long enough before they line out

 

Edited by Nick F

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Lets hope Moore doesn't get another bashing - right in the firing line if it comes off.

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Big hook on cell SW of Chickasha, OK. Tornado confirmed on the ground.  Watching KFOR live atm.  Don't know of any other streams... anyone have links to others?

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Yep, been following the KFOR live feed for last hour, with a very animated Reed Timmer updating right under the hook in his Dominator on the I-44, keeps cycling, but been reports of a rain wrapped tornado in this HP beast. Norman and OK City in firing line.

http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/

Severe studios is probably best bet with a few chasers on it: http://www.severestudios.com/live-storm-chasing-map/

Jeff Piotrowski right in the thick of it too: https://www.periscope.tv/w/1nAKEweYzayJL

Edited by Nick F

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Looks like a rain wrapped beast there. I hope those in it's path are taking cover.

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Very strong couplet

6QG3pCi.png

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Thanks Nick. Yes, impressive inbound/outbound shear to say the least. You'd be surprised if there wasn't a tornado in there with those velocities. Chasers noting the strong inflow from a distance, so impressive circulation indeed.

 

Edited by weather09

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This cycling HP beast SW of the metro is riding the warm front as it moves north over Oklahoma, lots of moisture streaming in from the south and backed surface SEly winds, but warm front tornadic storms often tend to be messy with rain wrapped tornadoes. I-35 traffic near Norman to OK City Metro grinding to a halt ahead of this storm to the SW, wouldn't like to be stuck on that interstate!

Edited by Nick F

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