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nsrobins

MDT risk NE/KS/OK/TX 26/4/16

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I'm starting a dedicated thread to today if that's ok - it makes multiple day events easier to follow.

Potentially big day today with all hazards possible. The lapse rates are very high favouring giant hail - wouldn't be surprised by reports of gorilla hail in the largest storms. To me tor risk is highest in N KS close to the TP but await obs before chosing my virtual target.

 

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golf ball sized hail already reported north of Kansas City

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I'm sticking to my previous target of Lebanon, KS. I'm liking the slightly more favourable H500 flow as per RAP and I think the I70 corridor west of Salina will be the focus of pre-dark activity.

Hard hats packed though - with high end lapse rates the hail could be seriously big!

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Epic bust. The DL puppies didn't get going at all, probably due to insufficient speed flow at 700mb (modelled I have to say), and the TP/WF cells got pretty much destroyed by too many OFB and subtle CVZs that sort of phased each other out. If they didn't perform in the first half hour of their lifecycle then it was all over.

Note to oneself - pay attention to the models and take more notice of the negatives! 

 

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It was a frustrating evening's viewing, rotation then it all flopped, many disappointed chasers. Although it seemed odd, that late in the day when I checked Brett Adair, hadn't gone out (don't know if he did at the end of the day). With 5 T's reported, with terms such as rope, small, brief, certainly not what was expected. Hail report of 4" did make it though:

2200 4001 N BREMEN MARSHALL KS 3992 9679

Edited by Dorsetbred

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Brett Adair was there earlier in the day, very disappointing day though 

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Well i must say, i feel disappointed.

Are people modest enough to say 'well we kinda got the forecast wrong yesterday'

A moderate risk, with a PDS Nado Watch issued, but in the end, just a small number of tornado reports, which i assume were

brief funnels / touchdowns

Chasers busted left, right & centre

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Ahh, the life story of a storm chaser, told in one day. The promise and the let down..

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The shear profiles really didn't help yesterday's cause, good explanation of why the high probabilities for tornadoes issued by SPC in their PDS warning didn't materialise I read here: 

https://www.facebook.com/TornadoTitans/?ref=stream

Friday's risk over the southern Plains worth keeping tabs on, may turn out a better day for chasers than yesterday's hyperbole for tornado potential. Oklahoma looks prime spot looking NAM parameters.

Edited by Nick F

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2 hours ago, Nick F said:

The shear profiles really didn't help yesterday's cause, good explanation of why the high probabilities for tornadoes issued by SPC in their PDS warning didn't materialise I read here: 

https://www.facebook.com/TornadoTitans/?ref=stream

Friday's risk over the southern Plains worth keeping tabs on, may turn out a better day for chasers than yesterday's hyperbole for tornado potential. Oklahoma looks prime spot looking NAM parameters.

Indeed. It's a testimony to the fact that even on very promising days one of the dozens of parameters that contribute to the situation will put a dampener on the good potential of others. I didn't really buy into the hype principally because of the profiles as you point out. If you fish around enough you'll find a nice loopy hodo but in general the directional shear just didn't look 'big day' anywhere down the DL. Better near the triple point but over-complex OFBs sort of negatively destroyed each other leaving a crappy mess after an hour or so.

 

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