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matty40s

Possible Outbreak 26/4 - 27/4

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Too early for Trip 1 but the  Storm Prediction Centre is looking at 30% possibilities already for Tuesday into Wednesday in North Texas and Oklahoma.

CAPE is climbing with every run.

 

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AN INTENSE...NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...SPREADING A 60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET OVER THE REGION. A STRONG CAP SHOULD PREVENT ANY EARLY-DAY CONVECTION DESPITE SOME WEAK IMPULSES POTENTIALLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN IMPULSE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF CRITICAL SURFACE FEATURES SUCH AS THE LOW AND ATTENDANT N-S ORIENTED DRYLINE AND W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME THAT THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS W-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND W-CENTRAL TX. THE WARM FRONT LIKELY WILL RESIDE OVER NRN KS EARLY AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SRN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES F COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE /PERHAPS GIANT/ HAIL. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT...WILL FURTHER SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND/OR LONG-TRACKED/. AS IS TYPICAL WITH STRONG SUPERCELLS...DAMAGING WINDS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE

 

I think we will see a lot of chasers coming out of hibernation for this one.

Edited by matty40s

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Yep GFS Nailed this about 10 days ago and been watching eagerly. The only reason the SPC has not gone Moderate is due to the differences between Mesoscale models even T60 before the event, dont think this is a solid Outbreak as such but certainly some Long Tracked Violent Tornadoes could ensue. 2 Obvious targets being the Dryline in Oklahoma or Triple Point in Kansas. 

Sundays risk could see a tornado or two in Kansas or Nebraska also and my eyes are firmly fixed on this Friday with a carbon copy of Tuesday event showing up in the Models. 

A very unsettled period coming up.

 

 

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It certainly looks ripe for a late night week this week.

First time we have had so many chasers out for a long time tonight.

Storms popping up all over west of Kansas City at the moment.

David Drummond on the cell west of ellsworth with a wall cloud forming.

Edited by matty40s

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Watching stormscapelive,he's in a good spot,looking good.

Untitled.pngUntitled 1.pngUntitled 2.png

dave drummond on some more scud of which could produce a T

Untitled 3.png

a rope t was visualed by stormscapelive for a few seconds,i will keep you informed

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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I'm not seeing a major event Tues 26th but some parameters favour a strong tornado or two. Although the trough is indeed sharply negatively tilted on the NAM this morning their  seems to be a 'de-coupling' between the primary factors, especially highest SRH and lowest or earlier erosion of CIN. Cape and moisture not a problem.

If I was to go for an early target I'd be looking at the KS/NE line somewhere around Lebanon, KS.

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Off to a good start yesterday with 4 T's:

2 x KS

1 x NE

1 x MN

Largest hail report of 3"

23:29 300 2 NNW NEW CAMBRIA SALINE KS 3891 9752

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having to start work at 5am uk time was not a good option, I missed most of the action.

finishing present contract at the end of the week so I can revert to cocktail sticks in eyelids watching for a month or two.:yahoo:

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4 minutes ago, matty40s said:

having to start work at 5am uk time was not a good option, I missed most of the action.

finishing present contract at the end of the week so I can revert to cocktail sticks in eyelids watching for a month or two.:yahoo:

Me too had to get up at 5am so missed all the action,12 o'clock last night i went to bed.:nonono:

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well I count over 30 chasers already out in the field just on TVN and I've not looked at the others yet..... and some big hail already reported. Looks like today might be a serious prospect.

 

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SPC Gearing up for a PDS Tornado Watch in next few hours, the Southern Target is rapidly turning into possibly the better play at the moment.

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Can we put both threads together there is another for today

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3 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Can we put both threads together there is another for today

I didn't realise someone else had posted I did this a couple of days ago, on my phone!!

Quite happy to get merged, it could be a significant event looking at it now.

 

and some of the big names are now joining the chase too!!

Edited by matty40s

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Cheers Mate

I know i do tend to follow storm scape a lot he explains everything as he goes along

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quite a few new names this year, even a paramedic on the chase nathan dagley - is that a sign of the times.....(purple)!!!!

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Nice looking cell just N of Wakita, OK.  Nice lowering at the base.  

Also, anybody using GRL3?  Be handy to see some occasional velocity imagery.  Then again, once things get going, they get going. 

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34 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Things starting too develop

Yep,poss t on that cell nr bluff city,watching john humphees.

Untitled 5.png

t warning coming out now i think.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yep,poss t on that cell nr bluff city,watching john humphees.

Yeah you can see the rotation up high but ls that just rain on the ground 

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7 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

Yeah you can see the rotation up high but ls that just rain on the ground 

Yes Boro it looked like just rain,t warning on that cell now,watching bryce at the mo.

also checking out that southern cell over Meno,jerrod harris is on that one,nice looking cell

Untitled 6.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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bryce is one of those usually on the money twisty

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its just crashed due to excess users:oops:

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Here we go... Bluff City cell. Lowering large wall cloud.  Looked like a funnel for a brief few seconds.

Edit: got the application error message now as well.  

Edited by weather09

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