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BornFromTheVoid

Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2016: Melt Season

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I think if the final extent finishes around the 2007/11/15 mark, you could say its a good example where its misleading because the ice pack is looking in such a state, you do worry what impacts it could have on next years melting season.

In a way I'm not surprised the pack looks as bad as it is considering where we were in May in terms of extent but also how mild the winter was but no doubt this summer has been quite stormy and coupled with some noticetable warm shots, then the ice pack was always going to suffer

Having said that, the weather patterns for this August has been crazy, totally different to last year where in general the weather was quite calm and probably saved 2015 from having an even lower extent than it was.

The cold air wrapped around the GAC probably saved the ice on extent but it has done little to help the area inside the ice pack, of course we have seen instances of low concentrations within an ice pack before but what is unusual is just how widespread this is, of course assuming it does not melt between now and the end of the melt season, all that will re-freeze and wind direction could chuck some slightly older ice into that area anyways but it goes to show, if you have too many storms these days, the ice is going to suffer just as bad as a dipole except the difference is, its area that will be hurting more than extent but both are as bad as each other you would have to say.

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16 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

I think if the final extent finishes around the 2007/11/15 mark, you could say its a good example where its misleading because the ice pack is looking in such a state, you do worry what impacts it could have on next years melting season.

In a way I'm not surprised the pack looks as bad as it is considering where we were in May in terms of extent but also how mild the winter was but no doubt this summer has been quite stormy and coupled with some noticetable warm shots, then the ice pack was always going to suffer

Having said that, the weather patterns for this August has been crazy, totally different to last year where in general the weather was quite calm and probably saved 2015 from having an even lower extent than it was.

The cold air wrapped around the GAC probably saved the ice on extent but it has done little to help the area inside the ice pack, of course we have seen instances of low concentrations within an ice pack before but what is unusual is just how widespread this is, of course assuming it does not melt between now and the end of the melt season, all that will re-freeze and wind direction could chuck some slightly older ice into that area anyways but it goes to show, if you have too many storms these days, the ice is going to suffer just as bad as a dipole except the difference is, its area that will be hurting more than extent but both are as bad as each other you would have to say.

 

Yes, it will most certainly be interesting to see what happens during subsequent months; optimism needs to prevail...

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Using the single day values, the NSIDC extent is now below every previous minima except 2007, 2011, 2012 and 2015, with gaps of 390k, 204k, 1197k and 196k respectively.

With the 5 day trailing average we're below all previous minima except 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2015.

54BUIje.png

...Diff..... ...No of Years    Percentage
Below 0..... ....31..... .....83.8%
0-100k....... ....0..... ......0.0%
100-250k..... ...2..... ......5.4%
250-500k..... ...2..... ......5.4%
500-1000k..... .1..... ......2.7%
>1000k..... .....1..... ......2.7%

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Another massive drop on the daily NSIDC values, down 173k, and down 313k over the last 2 days.
With the 5 day average extent, this makes the 27th the latest date on record that a drop of over 100k has been recorded. The previous record was August 26th in 2008.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
Fridays extent value was adjusted, so updated the extent loss figures
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Well JAXA is back up and we are currently second lowest.

Fell free to look up thread to see the type of season we experienced this year!

I'm sure June and July is well documented by the folk desperate for a high finish number as those two months were amongst the poorest ,for ice loss, on record. These months have the strongest melt forcing so to lose momentum over that period usually spells death for any melt season trying to achieve the bottom 3....... hence the usual crew keeping track of the slow progress over that period...... yet here we are?

Have I not been saying that the basin has 'changed'?

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I think a summer that was more like 2007 or 2012 would have had the extent somewhere closer to 2 million km2 come minimum. In a sense this year was saved by the cool, cloudy weather during the bulk of summer.

Anyway, this is how the 2016 ADS extent compares to previous minima up to August 28th

nKwG7Ic.png

 

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No surprise expert to go on breakfast saying Artic ice could all melt next month.

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With the latest century drop on record, ADS extent is now just 46k off dropping below the minima of 2011 an 2015, securing 3rd lowest extent on record.

PvPrmCa.png

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Ice now moving out of Fram.... it's like a squirt out of a tube of toothpaste as the thick , old ice emerges into the straight on on into the Atlantic. It probably won't make any dents in extent/area figures but if it is our best ice then it will impact Volume!

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On 30/08/2016 at 06:35, The PIT said:

No surprise expert to go on breakfast saying Artic ice could all melt next month.

That would be a first !

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ADS extent has dropped below 2011 and 2015, now securing at least the 3rd lowest minimum on record.

y2LL4C9.png

 

2007 certainly within reach, but 2012 still looks a long shot.

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Another big drop in the single day NSIDC extent, -110k. This takes us below the minima of 2011 and 2015, securing at least the 3rd lowest minimum on record. We're also just 131k off the 2007 minimum.

48lzDFS.png

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Single day NISDC extent has seen a sharp drop, down 120k, and now 64k below the 2007 minimum. That guarantees at least the 2nd lowest extent minimum on record.

The 5 day average still has a little way to go, now just 47k off 2007.

EDIT: An interesting update from the NSIDC http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2016/09/arctic-sea-ice-nears-its-minimum-extent-for-the-year/

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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On 08/09/2016 at 14:35, BornFromTheVoid said:

Single day NISDC extent has seen a sharp drop, down 120k, and now 64k below the 2007 minimum. That guarantees at least the 2nd lowest extent minimum on record.

The 5 day average still has a little way to go, now just 47k off 2007.

EDIT: An interesting update from the NSIDC http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2016/09/arctic-sea-ice-nears-its-minimum-extent-for-the-year/

This is the scary bit

Air temperatures at the 925 hPa level were 1 to 3 degrees Celsius (2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) below average for a large area stretching from the northern Kara Sea, through the Laptev Sea, and into north-central Eurasia. Temperatures elsewhere over the Arctic Ocean were near average

Whats going to happen if they go above next year ?

 

I wonder if we will hit sub 4 ?

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

4090129

4054179

4056306

4045470

4022615

4017264

4024575

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45 minutes ago, knocker said:

What a wonderful review and as it says at the bottom. I mean it was cloudy for most of the summer up there.

 

"That's the big lesson for this year. Things just aren't improving for the sea ice at all, and the fact that the cyclonic conditions we've seen this year, haven't prevent the second lowest minimum on record, doesn't bode well for the future at all."

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