May 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[Summer Sun]

12.7c to the 22nd

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

12.7c to the 23rd

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of 5.7C while maxima look like climbing into the 16s, so a drop to 12.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

12.4C to the 25th (8.1: -4.4)
12.4C to the 26th (11.2: -1.2)
12.4C to the 27th (13.3: +1.2)
12.5C to the 28th (13.9: +1.6)
12.5C to the 29th (13.6: +0.8)
12.5C to the 30th (12.3: -0.8)
12.5C to the 31st (14.0: +0.7)

Close to average for the final week now expected, with a finishing range of 12.3C to 12.9C before, and 11.9C to 12.9C after corrections.

[Summer Sun]

12.6c to the 24th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

12.5c to the 25th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 12C +0.2c above 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

12.5c to the 26th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of 7.5C while maxima look like reaching close to 19C, so remaining on 12.5C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

12.5C to the 28th (13.9: +1.6)
12.6C to the 29th (13.9: +1.1)
12.6C to the 30th (14.1: +1.0)
12.7C to the 31st (13.2: -0.1)

The last few weeks, the GFS has been predicting minima about 1.5 to 2C lower that what's been shown on the CET. Maybe this change is related to the recent GFS upgrade?
Anyway, the final value is about 12.65C, so anything from 12.5C to 12.8C is possible before corrections, so 12.1C to 12.8C after.

[Summer Sun]

12.5c to the 27th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.9C just 0.1C above average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of 9.1C, with maxima likely to be around the mid 18s, so once again remaining on 12.5C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

12.5C to the 29th (13.1: +0.3)
12.6C to the 30th (13.2: +0.1)
12.6C to the 31st (13.9: +0.6)

I'd say 12.5 to 12.7C before corrections, 12.1C to 12.7C after.

[Summer Sun]

12.6c to the 28th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

12.6c to the 29th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

12.6c to the 30th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

looking like we'll end on 11.8C bang on average

[BornFromTheVoid]

With the minimum today at 10.2C, the CET will finish on 12.6C (before corrections) provided the max today is between 12.2C and 18.4C, which seems pretty likely.

So with corrections, something from 12.2C to 12.6C then, which leaves us slightly above the 81-10 average of 11.7C.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just waiting on the corrected value for the 31st, but it looks almost certain that the May CET will be 12.5 or 12.6C.

[Relativistic]

5 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Just waiting on the corrected value for the 31st, but it looks almost certain that the May CET will be 12.5 or 12.6C.

Looks like we lost both of the 18C days on the 8th (17.8C) and 9th (17.6C) to downward corrections.

Assuming the figure comes in at 12.5C, that would place May at joint 306th place out of 358 months (going from coldest to warmest).

Others were
1685
1686
1728
1737
1789
1829
1940

Assuming the figure comes in at 12.6C, that would place May at joint 313th place out of 358 months (going from coldest to warmest).

Others were
1775
1815
1865
1953
1990
2001

For Spring overall, assuming 12.5C, Spring 2016 would rank joint 242nd out of 358 seasons (going from coldest to warmest).

Others were
1703
1926
2006

For Spring overall, assuming 12.6C, Spring 2016 would rank joint 245th out of 358 seasons (going from coldest to warmest).

Others were
1774
1803
1863
1864

Will edit once we know the final May figure.

[Roger J Smith]

After entering the final values available into my CET data file, I determined that we finish at 12.6 if the 31st is 13.4 or higher, and at 12.5 if 13.3 or lower (assuming it's 12 to 14 somewhere).

Looks to me as though the downward correction will come in close to 0.1 C and it seems rather scattered between days that went up or down, unfortunately the record setters went down and that's going to leave the 9th (17.6) tied with 1945 while the 8th remains a record at 17.8 beating out 16.9 from 1867.

[Matthew.]

I've heard a rumour the final figure will be 12.54 and no I don't work at Hadley CET

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I've heard a rumour the final figure will be 12.54 and no I don't work at Hadley CET

Matthew...

Do you have vivid dreams though?    .

[Summer Sun]

A finish on 12.5 would be the first one since 1940

A finish on 12.6 would be the first one since 2001

[Summer Sun]

May confirmed as 12.5c the last one was way back in 1940

Ranked 313

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

 

Edited June 2, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Relativistic]

From my post above:

Looks like we lost both of the 18C days on the 8th (17.8C) and 9th (17.6C) to downward corrections.

With the final figure at 12.5C, May is placed at joint 306th place out of 358 months (going from coldest to warmest).

Others were
1685
1686
1728
1737
1789
1829
1940

For Spring overall (March 5.8C, April 7.5C, May 12.5C) 2016 is ranked at joint 242nd out of 358 seasons (going from coldest to warmest).

Others were
1703
1926
2006

Edited June 2, 2016 by Relativistic

[crucible72]

Looks like Evening Thunder was the winner, as the only person to get 12.5 spot on