May 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 5.5C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 11s, so a drop to 13.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

12.7C to the 15th (7.8: -3.9)
12.5C to the 16th (8.8: -2.7)
12.3C to the 17th (10.4: -0.9)
12.3C to the 18th (12.3: +0.9)
12.3C to the 19th (10.8: -1.0)
12.2C to the 20th (10.6: -1.7)
12.1C to the 21st (11.7: -0.4)
12.1C to the 22nd (10.9: -1.3)

The low res part of the run remains below average, and would have the CET in the high 11s to the 29th

[damianslaw]

Have we reached the high point? not even before mid stage of the month in what is on average a warming month... most likely. However, given the outlook looks near to average, a finish above the 61-90 mean at least looks a cert and most likely above the 81-10 mean, but perhaps not quite as significantly above as was looking possible a few days back. Still a very warm final week could see May 16 return the warmest CET since 1992, but lots of uncertainty where we are heading at this range.

[Matthew.]

Interesting about a possibility of the high 11's for the end of month. I've also seen some charts showing high pressure building to the south and east for the final week. Is this 50/50 to which way it will go?

[Nouska]

50 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Have we reached the high point? not even before mid stage of the month in what is on average a warming month... most likely. However, given the outlook looks near to average, a finish above the 61-90 mean at least looks a cert and most likely above the 81-10 mean, but perhaps not quite as significantly above as was looking possible a few days back. Still a very warm final week could see May 16 return the warmest CET since 1992, but lots of uncertainty where we are heading at this range.

Some folk, from elsewhere, will know that I've long used the analogues for  the CET competition - sometimes good, some times spectacularly awful. This month and last showed huge diversity in the likely figure with no middle ground at all. I suppose this was to reflect the meridionality of the pattern - high was mainly on the up side and low was reflecting the down side of Atlantic ridging.

I had hoped to join this competition but didn't realise the year ran from December to December.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 12.7C and looking like it'll drop to 12.4C tomorrow. Either an average month or just above seemingly likely at the moment.

[Summer Sun]

13.1c to the 14h

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average

2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 3.5C, while maxima look like hitting close to 14C, so a drop to 12.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

12.6C to the 16th (8.6: -2.9)
12.4C to the 17th (9.9: -1.4)
12.3C to the 18th (11.3: -0.1)
12.3C to the 19th (10.6: -1.2)
12.2C to the 20th (11.9: -0.4)
12.1C to the 21st (9.8: -2.3)
12.0C to the 22nd (8.7: -3.5)
11.9C to the 23rd (10.0: -2.8)
11.9C to the 24th (11.2: -2.1)

A pretty cool period coming up. The rest of the GFS has the CET a little above average and gradually pulls it up to the low to mid 12s by months end.

[Summer Sun]

12.9 to the 15th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

12.7 to the 16th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited May 18, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Roger J Smith]

It still appears to be heading slowly down for a few more days, will reach about 12 or a bit lower, then recover rapidly in last six or seven days of the month if GFS can be believed (CET days near 19 C are possible before the end of May). Would say that 12.5 to 13.2 is about the best range at this point although 11.5 to 14.2 remain possible.

[Summer Sun]

12.7 to the 17th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today is 10.1C while maxima look like being around 14C, so remaining on 12.6C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

12.6C to the 19th (11.5: -0.3)
12.6C to the 20th (14.1: +1.8)
12.7C to the 21st (14.5: +2.4)
12.7C to the 22nd (12.3: +0.1)
12.6C to the 23rd (10.9: -1.9)
12.5C to the 24th (10.8: -2.5)
12.5C to the 25th (11.1: -1.4)
12.4C to the 26th (10.0: -2.4)
12.4C to the 27th (12.2: +0.1)

After that, the final days would be close to average, leaving he CET at 12.6C by months end. At this stage, I'd say anything from 11.8C to 13.2C is possible before corrections, and 11.4C to 13.2C after corrections.

[The PIT]

Looking pretty certain it will be a above average month temperatures but not by much here and this will be due to night time temperatures rather than the day time ones. At the moment sunny Sheffield is 12C and should start edging up from now on.

[Summer Sun]

12.6 to the 18th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Matthew.]

It's looking like a 12.9 for May to me at the moment. I've just been looking at some similar years and found this close one in 1911 and here it is starting from January:

3.8, 4.8, 5.2, 7.5, 12.9, 14.5, 18.2

2016

5.4, 4.9, 5.8, 7.5, (12.9)p

Interestingly 1911 had a Summer which finished in the Top Ten of all time

[Summer Sun]

12.6 to the 19th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 11.4C, while maxima look like reaching close to 17C, so an increase 12.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

12.7C to the 21st (13.4: +1.3)
12.6C to the 22nd (11.2: -1.0)
12.5C to the 23rd (10.6: -2.2)
12.5C to the 24th (10.9: -2.4)
12.3C to the 25th (9.0: -3.5)
12.4C to the 26th (14.7: +2.3)
12.5C to the 27th (14.4: +2.3)
12.6C to the 28th (15.9: +3.6)
12.7C to the 29th (14.8: +2.0)

At this stage, a finish of between 12.0C and 13.2C before corrections seems likely, with 11.6C to 13.2C after corrections.

 

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

At this stage, a finish of between 12.0C and 13.2C before corrections seems likely, with 11.6C to 13.2C after corrections.

My guess of 11.9c may not be far out this month if we end up at the lower end after corrections

[iapennell]

My prediction of a CET mean of 10.6C, which was based on my forecast for a chilly damp May is now looking unlikely thanks to the prolonged warm and dry weather over much of Britain. The chilly north-easterlies we had last week have not really counteracted the earlier warmth and with the next ten days looking chargeable but with plenty warm south-east airstreams it looks like I will be out by about 1.5C. Not a huge margin of error I suppose but the fact that I predicted mainly unsettled conditions in May and it's turned out remarkably dry to date over most of Britain is probably more serious. If I am honest I was -to some extent -programmed to expect wet weather in May because that has been the become -norm for the month since 2000 where I live in the North Pennines.  

I thought Arctic sea-ice retreating, no snow over Scandinavia any more (so no blocking-highs) - global warming :Ergo don't get warm dry Mays any more!! 

[Summer Sun]

12.7c to the 20th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[DAVID SNOW]

Just going by this mornings GFS 06 (sat 21)

I make the months end finish to be 12.6 (or thereabouts) before corrections.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield finally jumping to 12.2C +0.4C above normal

[Matthew.]

 

26 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Just going by this mornings GFS 06 (sat 21)

I make the months end finish to be 12.6 (or thereabouts) before corrections.

Yes the Azores High seems to be holding off until Flaming June

[Summer Sun]

12.7c to the 21st

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 8.4C, while maxima look like reaching close to 16C, so remaining on 12.7C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

12.6C to the 23rd (11.3: -1.5)
12.6C to the 24th (10.7: -2.6)
12.4C to the 25th (7.9: -4.6)
12.3C to the 26th (10.5: -1.9)
12.4C to the 27th (14.2: +2.1)
12.4C to the 28th (14.6: +2.3)
12.5C to the 29th (14.6: +1.8)
12.6C to the 30th (15.7: +2.6)
12.7C to the 31st (15.7: +2.4)

With a mild end to the month now on the cards, a finish of between 13.1C and 12.3C before corrections is likely, and 11.9C to 13.1C after corrections.