May 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[Milhouse]

At least its the right time of year for warm records to be going!! Got a bit tired of seeing all that warmth in December at the wrong time of year.

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 4th

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

10.0c to the 5th

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 6.9C, while maxima look like reaching the low 19s, so an increase to 10.5C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

11.3C to the 7th (15.8: +4.8) [Record High: 16.8C]
12.0C to the 8th (16.9: +6.0) [Record High: 16.9C]
12.5C to the 9th (16.9: +6.2) [Record High: 17.6C]
12.9C to the 10th (16.4: +5.6)
13.2C to the 11th (15.5: +4.4)
13.2C to the 12th (14.1: +2.8)
12.9C to the 13th (8.4: -3.2)
12.5C to the 14th (7.2: -4.5)
12.2C to the 15th (8.2: -3.5)
 

A couple of daily records under threat from tomorrow, with the 8th having the best shot. Later on, the 06z GFS has a big switch around from the 12th, going from well above average to well below average in just a day.

[Weather26]

My goodness the wheels of this warm spell come off rather quickly from next Friday if this comes off.

Edited May 6, 2016 by Weather26

[Summer Sun]

10.6c to the 6th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

On 5/5/2016 at 11:28, Milhouse said:

At least its the right time of year for warm records to be going!! Got a bit tired of seeing all that warmth in December at the wrong time of year.

Never a right time of the year for warm records to be broken IMO, but I am a coldie at heart!

[summer blizzard]

I rather like my warmth in the May-July period, my issue with things is more the lack of a dominant anti-cyclone. The current setup portends warm nights. 

Early May 08 and late May 12 probably saw daily records fall too. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 9.1C, while maxima look like reaching about 21C, so an increase to 11.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

11.9C to the 8th (16.9: +6.0) [Record High: 16.9C]
12.4C to the 9th (16.4: +5.7)
12.8C to the 10th (15.6: +4.8)
13.0C to the 11th (15.4: +4.3)
13.0C to the 12th (12.7: +1.4)
12.5C to the 13th (6.4: -5.2)
12.0C to the 14th (5.5: -6.2)
11.6C to the 15th (6.1: -5.6)
11.3C to the 16th (6.9: -4.6)

Yesterday's mean of 13.5C was (provisionally) the warmest since November 11th.
A massive switch is still forecast to occur at the end of next week. The current outlook has the rolling CET going from 2.3C above average on the 11th to 0.3C above average on 16th. Despite close to record breaking warmth this week, an above average month is not guaranteed.

Edited May 7, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[Matthew.]

Are these Gfs runs worse case scenario? Just my calculations give me 12.4 to the 16th and in the cool spell next weekend I have 14/15c by day and 6/7c by night which give a mean much higher of around 10.5c.

[BornFromTheVoid]

43 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Are these Gfs runs worse case scenario? Just my calculations give me 12.4 to the 16th and in the cool spell next weekend I have 14/15c by day and 6/7c by night which give a mean much higher of around 10.5c.

Welcome to the forum!
I'm going by what the 06z GFS operational shows. This is what I have estimated for the maxima/minima:

13th: 10.2/2.6
14th: 10.0/1.0
15th: 10.6/1.6
16th: 11.8/2.0

Are we definitely looking at the same charts? Below are the maxima from 13th to 16th,

  

 

They don't look like mid teens to me?

 

[Matthew.]

Thankyou. Sorry I should have mentioned I was looking at several charts not just GFS to have temperatures closer to 14c and 6c. I wonder if the GFS is over emphasising the cold temperatures? They do look very low to say i expect nothing like the late April cold spell.  Thank you for explaining and look forward to taking part in June CET.

[wishingforsnow]

5 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Thankyou. Sorry I should have mentioned I was looking at several charts not just GFS to have temperatures closer to 14c and 6c. I wonder if the GFS is over emphasising the cold temperatures? They do look very low to say i expect nothing like the late April cold spell.  Thank you for explaining and look forward to taking part in June CET.

ECM has a warmer outlook for end of next week than the GFS. Hopefully the conditions ECM shows come off which only show a drop to mid-high teens in the south rather than the drop of 10 degrees and freezing nights of the GFS.

[BornFromTheVoid]

7 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Thankyou. Sorry I should have mentioned I was looking at several charts not just GFS to have temperatures closer to 14c and 6c. I wonder if the GFS is over emphasising the cold temperatures? They do look very low to say i expect nothing like the late April cold spell.  Thank you for explaining and look forward to taking part in June CET.

That explains it. The GFS isn't the best for that kind of range, so it could well turn out more like you suggest.

[Matthew.]

I noticed at the beginning of the month the GFS showed a resistance of the cold but the ECM had the warm air moving north easily which is now happening. I also agree that the date record for the 8th is under serious threat. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Mean of 18c.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10.8C

[Roger J Smith]

4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I rather like my warmth in the May-July period, my issue with things is more the lack of a dominant anti-cyclone. The current setup portends warm nights.

Early May 08 and late May 12 probably saw daily records fall too.

2008 scored twice (on 7th and 11th with 16.8 and 18.6). 2012 missed, it was going up against some of the warmest days in late May and came closest on 26th with 18.4 against the record of 18.7 in 1784. The CET daily records can be seen in a post that I made back on Sunday 1st of May. The record for tomorrow that is under threat is 16.9 from 1867. Monday's record of 17.6 was set in 1945.

[Roger J Smith]

Speaking of 2008, the rolling CET was 15.1 after the 12th and the month ended up at 13.4, in fact the only day that was warmer than the average of 1-12 afterwards was the 31st at 15.4. I vaguely recall some excitement around this contest about the 1833 record being under threat but the average fell back as low as 12 after some quite chilly days mid-month.

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

That explains it. The GFS isn't the best for that kind of range, so it could well turn out more like you suggest.

The ECM has been a good bit warmer than the GFS in the means but I noticed today's 00Z EPS have a much cooler look to them from day ten to fifteen.

Hopefully it will not materialise as this cold troughing is not doing any favours for the growing season.

[Matthew.]

40 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Speaking of 2008, the rolling CET was 15.1 after the 12th and the month ended up at 13.4, in fact the only day that was warmer than the average of 1-12 afterwards was the 31st at 15.4. I vaguely recall some excitement around this contest about the 1833 record being under threat but the average fell back as low as 12 after some quite chilly days mid-month.

Thats interesting what you say about 2008. I never realised just how warm this month started! I wouldnt have thought there have been many oppurtunities to beat 1833. Hopefully this months second half will match the first and we could be at least 1c above the 81 average.

[Summer Sun]

11.3c to the 7th

1.1c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Temps seem generally above 24C across the CET zone today. A CET max of as little as 22.9C and we shall (provisionally) have a new daily record mean for the 8th..

[Summer Sun]

12.1c to the 8th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday is down as 18.0C, provisionally a daily record. I'm on mobile, so I don't have the stats to hand, but I doubt there have been many 18C or higher days this early before.

[Relativistic]

13 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Yesterday is down as 18.0C, provisionally a daily record. I'm on mobile, so I don't have the stats to hand, but I doubt there have been many 18C or higher days this early before.

Glancing at a couple of Roger's posts, it seems that there are three daily records before the 8th of May that are higher than 18.0C. These are;

- the absurdly warm 29/4/1775 (19.7C),
- 4/5/1834 (18.0C),
- 6/5/1867 (18.8C).

I couldn't find any other years on these dates for which 18.0C or more was recorded.

We should also bear in mind that this may be subject to a slight downward correction. Are warm days more likely to be corrected upwards or downwards?