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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
19 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Bring it on! About time. Lovely temperatures, not too warm, should get some nice evenings too fingers crossed, to enjoy a BBQ or two :D 

looks like the t-shirts will be coming out of hibernation :D oh and the lawnmower :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

5th summer update from Matt Hugo

Summary

Overall throughout the last four weeks there has been a subtle trend towards a greater possibility of higher pressure across the UK this summer, than lower pressure. The initial thoughts during late March and early April were towards a progression towards far more unsettled conditions as July and August arrived, with some of the best conditions during early summer. Clearly the latest update of the CFSv2 model has reverted back to this forecast evolution, but for now is being dismissed as an outlier solution.

However, at this juncture, given the information of the last four to five weeks, the overall outcome is now for the summer across the UK to be far more ‘average’, with a bias towards higher pressure over the three months than lower pressure, perhaps particularly so across more southern areas of the UK. This would lead to some very pleasant summer weather at times, with no doubt a number of individual spells of hot weather too, but there remains a tentative comment and bias towards more unsettled conditions potentially developing during August, with the best summer weather through June and July. At the moment, the probability of an unsettled and cool summer period, as per the summer of 2012 for example, is low or perhaps very low. However, the possibility of a warmer and wetter than average summer has increased, with a possibility of low pressure potentially combining with hot and humid spells, particularly towards the middle and latter half of the summer.

Full thoughts here: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3224&title=Summer+2016+update+5

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol/South East
  • Location: Bristol/South East
16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

5th summer update from Matt Hugo

Summary

Overall throughout the last four weeks there has been a subtle trend towards a greater possibility of higher pressure across the UK this summer, than lower pressure. The initial thoughts during late March and early April were towards a progression towards far more unsettled conditions as July and August arrived, with some of the best conditions during early summer. Clearly the latest update of the CFSv2 model has reverted back to this forecast evolution, but for now is being dismissed as an outlier solution.

However, at this juncture, given the information of the last four to five weeks, the overall outcome is now for the summer across the UK to be far more ‘average’, with a bias towards higher pressure over the three months than lower pressure, perhaps particularly so across more southern areas of the UK. This would lead to some very pleasant summer weather at times, with no doubt a number of individual spells of hot weather too, but there remains a tentative comment and bias towards more unsettled conditions potentially developing during August, with the best summer weather through June and July. At the moment, the probability of an unsettled and cool summer period, as per the summer of 2012 for example, is low or perhaps very low. However, the possibility of a warmer and wetter than average summer has increased, with a possibility of low pressure potentially combining with hot and humid spells, particularly towards the middle and latter half of the summer.

Full thoughts here: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3224&title=Summer+2016+update+5

Good update. Sums up my current thoughts towards the upcoming Summer too - if La Nina is set to begin affecting our weather patterns in August as predicted it could mean the better summer weather is more likely during the first half: May/June/July. August has been a write off in recent years so nothing different there but as long as we get some decent spells of summer weather/a heatwave that lasts more than a day or two unlike Summer 2015 with less of the nagging breeze in the air, I'm happy. Also it's good to see mentioned that the probability for a summer like 2012 is currently low.

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

I read in the  model thread someone questioning the recorded temperature of almost 26c in leeds. and how the easterly wind would have effected it...It hasnt been the case in my location which is near leeds.its actually felt  very pleasent..That to me  is a promise of something better as we head into the main part of the summer.. I dont think  2016 will be  classic.. but something around or just above average with plenty of sunny days.. will do nicely :D

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

I am getting so sick of seeing the words 'unsettled' and 'August' mentioned together. Screw June and July - a hot August is well overdue. It's high time the second warmest month of the year showed us exactly what it is capable of. August 1990, 1991, 1995, 1997, 2003 - come on, you can do it!!

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
46 minutes ago, cheese said:

I am getting so sick of seeing the words 'unsettled' and 'August' mentioned together. Screw June and July - a hot August is well overdue. It's high time the second warmest month of the year showed us exactly what it is capable of. August 1990, 1991, 1995, 1997, 2003 - come on, you can do it!!

Damn right! You can add 2005, 2009 and 2013 to that list down here. 2012 and 2015 had potential too but turned too sour in the second half. I really hope La Nina doesn't mean yet another disappointing August.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Yes, those Augusts were nice here too - although not as warm as the ones I mentioned (I don't think - 1991 might be similar but 1990, 1995, 1997 and 2003 were definitely warmer, 1990 being scorching in the first few days). 

In any case, given in the past decade we've had July 2006 and 2013  - both in the top 10 warmest July's - August needs to redeem itself in the hot weather department. It is more than capable, and usually gives the hottest days of the year. 

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
16 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yes, those Augusts were nice here too - although not as warm as the ones I mentioned (I don't think - 1991 might be similar but 1990, 1995, 1997 and 2003 were definitely warmer, 1990 being scorching in the first few days). 

In any case, given in the past decade we've had July 2006 and 2013  - both in the top 10 warmest July's - August needs to redeem itself in the hot weather department. It is more than capable, and usually gives the hottest days of the year. 

Absolutely! 01st August 2013 tied warmest day of the year with 22nd July here but after the 02nd it only seemed to be hot on the Thursdays in that month with moderate warmth in between. At least being a dry month it was very usable.

I'm with you on a good August here though this year - given the cost of travelling in August, I've decided to stay in the country all month and holiday in July instead.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and blisteringly hot
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL

August has a long record of mediocrity, and I'm talking of over 60 years' experience.  1950s Augusts always seemed good, however during the '60s Augusts were mixed,  Two particularly nasty Augusts were 1962 and 1963 which formed a sandwich with the filling That Winter.  Ironically September 1963 delivered the goods but of course I was back in school.  The autumn was so mild that PE was often taken outdoors on the playing fields in shorts only, no top needed.

I really hope this year delivers the decent summer that bucks the trend of increasingly cold summers dominated by PM airmasses and that permanent NW wind.

Edited by Wildswimmer Pete
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

For the past 30 years in Leeds, July was the warmest month 15 times and August was the warmest 15 times, so they're both fairly equal all things considered, just in recent years there's been more poor August's, whereas in the 90s-mid 00s August seemed to be a great month more often than not outshining July (wasn't August 1995 the hottest month on record at the time?).

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I'll firm up some thoughts on summer 2016 at the end of the month. Early hunch is quite a decent one overall, but not record book territory or even top 10 territory, the usual north west - south east divide being very evident, episodic could be a good way to describe it with better conditions reserved for the first half..

Talking of August, yes we are overdue a very good one, far too many recent ones have been cool cloudy affairs. However, it is far more difficult to achieve a dry settled month in August than June, the atlantic tends to fire into gear by August and we see the effects of tropical storm activity. Indeed for the NW quarter of the UK, it can and often is one of the wettest months of the year with the perpetual miserable SW feed. In recent years September has been a far better month - indeed its almost becoming the norm for conditions to settle down as we hit September! very annoying.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

It's quite nonsensical really how August can end up as pants as possible regardless of what happens with June, July and September. It's becoming a bit of an enigma. Hopefully we'll have a more normal August this year which at least down here tends to be decent.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

latest NOAA prediction for summer into winter re Nino

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

Definitely agree regarding August and September.  I remember some decent Augusts in the summer holidays back when I was in school in the 80s and 90s - but since my son started school a few years back we've been struggling to find good weather to get out and about in the holidays only for conditions to improve as soon as he goes back in September.

The Met Office stats certainly back up your thoughts:

August Sunshine - not had 180+ hours since 2005.  The longest since the 1960s, backing up Pete's comments about the poor 1960s Augusts above.

UK.gif

Rainfall on the up (although not quite as bad recently as 1992, which I remember well as being very wet after the good August summer holiday in 1991):

UK.gif

The smoothed black average in the September graphs almost look like an inverse of August.  Rainfall down and sunshine up!

UK.gif

UK.gif

Graphs from: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

We had a run of dreadful Julys here between 2007 and 2012, but that ended abruptly in 2013 with a very welcome warm and sunny month.  Let's hope August breaks the cycle this year, I'll be quite happy if we have to endure a wet September instead! 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

From my memory (fading with age) the summers in the 1960s were absolutely marvellous; catching butterflies and beetles...Judging from Met Office records, however, all I can remember are the good days??:D

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
30 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

Definitely agree regarding August and September.  I remember some decent Augusts in the summer holidays back when I was in school in the 80s and 90s - but since my son started school a few years back we've been struggling to find good weather to get out and about in the holidays only for conditions to improve as soon as he goes back in September.

We had a run of dreadful Julys here between 2007 and 2012, but that ended abruptly in 2013 with a very welcome warm and sunny month.  Let's hope August breaks the cycle this year, I'll be quite happy if we have to endure a wet September instead! 

Quite right! The further we go into September, the less I care what the weather does. I much prefer the best of the weather to fit into April-August when the sun is strongest. Nothing more frustrating than the likes of late Sept / early Oct last year after July last year lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
On 5/10/2016 at 19:56, weatherguru14 said:

I read in the  model thread someone questioning the recorded temperature of almost 26c in leeds. and how the easterly wind would have effected it...It hasnt been the case in my location which is near leeds.its actually felt  very pleasent..That to me  is a promise of something better as we head into the main part of the summer.. I dont think  2016 will be  classic.. but something around or just above average with plenty of sunny days.. will do nicely :D

It was me, and I accepted that that may well have happened as Linton on Ouse managed 26C (rounded I believe). That day Yorkshire did do as well as the Western side of the Pennines but virtually all other days during this spell have seen the NW warmer- today it was 16C in Leeds and 22C in Manchester- a big difference over 40 odd miles. No doubt the wind swinging more to a NE direction had an impact on that.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

It was me, and I accepted that that may well have happened as Linton on Ouse managed 26C (rounded I believe). That day Yorkshire did do as well as the Western side of the Pennines but virtually all other days during this spell have seen the NW warmer- today it was 16C in Leeds and 22C in Manchester- a big difference over 40 odd miles. No doubt the wind swinging more to a NE direction had an impact on that.

Not sure where you're getting that from - today was 20C in Leeds.

But yes, on other days the NW has been warmer due to favourable wind direction. During May so far, Rostherne has an average high of 18.8C and Linton on Ouse 18.6C.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
On 5/11/2016 at 21:31, damianslaw said:

I'll firm up some thoughts on summer 2016 at the end of the month. Early hunch is quite a decent one overall, but not record book territory or even top 10 territory, the usual north west - south east divide being very evident, episodic could be a good way to describe it with better conditions reserved for the first half..

Talking of August, yes we are overdue a very good one, far too many recent ones have been cool cloudy affairs. However, it is far more difficult to achieve a dry settled month in August than June, the atlantic tends to fire into gear by August and we see the effects of tropical storm activity. Indeed for the NW quarter of the UK, it can and often is one of the wettest months of the year with the perpetual miserable SW feed. In recent years September has been a far better month - indeed its almost becoming the norm for conditions to settle down as we hit September! very annoying.

 

 

I suppose that depends on your perspective more than anything. Taking my nearest Met Office station - Church Fenton - August is the wettest month of the year on average at 57mm, but June isn't too far behind at 55mm. August is also the joint second sunniest month of the year in percent terms at around 43% (July also 43% and May 45%). If I remember correctly, June has similar % sunshine levels to April and October. These are only rough calculations - there's a formula to work it out somewhere.

For a month with such long daylight, it is really wasted in June, especially when you get the 'return of the westerlies'. On average it can only just manage to get slightly more sun than August in total, despite the much longer daylight in June's favour. It has always been the weakest summer month.

Edit - I just worked it out and this is what I got, showing sunshine as % of possible total (I was a little off but not by much):

May 44%

July 41%

August 41%

September 40%

April 37%

June 37%

October 34%

February 32%

March 32%

November 28%

December 24%

January 23%

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

I see the BBC are still sticking to a warm up from the  middle/later  next week.. even though the models are suggesting otherwise.. makes me laugh when the weather forecasters show two pressure paterns.. one low pressure wayyyy up north   of scotland and a  high in the english channel.. yet they have no idea what kinda weather most of the country will  get.. so they  bbc err on the positive side..

Edited by weatherguru14
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

I believe that this summer will (most likely) be a fascinating case study into what happens when the Arctic has a lot more heat and moisture than at any time in (at least modern) recorded history. Does the much reduced thermal gradient cause the jet meander around like crazy, making the standard 'Azores High ridging northeast' scenario a rare sight, with inflated, 'tall' highs (extending to higher latitudes than usual) - generally varying between positions in the North Atlantic and across eastern Europe - being instead the dominant mode?

Certainly, from what I know of thermodynamics, I would be surprised not to see some extreme 'stuck weather' patterns this summer, with severe continental heatwaves in at least a couple of regions in the hemisphere, such as what took place across part of Russia in 2010.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The latest Met O summer prediction, see link below, suggests, to me anyway, about or a bit above for temperatures and around, maybe even a touch below rainfall July-August inclusive?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

2cat_20160501_mslp_months24_global_deter 2cat_20160501_temp2m_months24_global_det 2cat_20160501_prec_months24_global_deter

I prefer the ensemble mean maps to be honest. Not a bad setup showing there for warmth, but a risk of thundery lows coming up from the south at times (which many on these forums won't mind!), or from the Atlantic on occasion (which can also be fun, with a bit of luck).

We see a slight warm signal - but tempered by the cooler than average Atlantic waters nearby, as this model has the Cold Pool still very much in place for the summer, despite the recent weakening trend in observations.

Precipitation is variable around the UK, and it has to be said I'm surprised to see a slight dry signal over Europe, given the indicated pressure anomaly. Then again, all these signals are pretty weak really, which given that we're only at a couple of month's lead time for the middle point of the period shown, suggests a lot of uncertainty in the outlook.

2cat_20160501_mslp_months35_global_deter 2cat_20160501_sst_months35_global_deter_

Quite a strong signal does develop for low heights NW of the UK for Jul-Sep though. That could be good for the SE in particular - but I wonder if that comes from a lot of ensemble members producing 'standard' tropical cyclone tracks that recurve near the eastern U.S. and then become deep ex-tropical lows NW of the UK. After all, the model has one heck of a La Nina on the go for the period, which favours heightened Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

Oddly enough, it looks that strong even for Jun-Aug, which would mean 2016 sees a record-fast transition from strong El Nino to strong La Nina.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
22 hours ago, cheese said:

I suppose that depends on your perspective more than anything. Taking my nearest Met Office station - Church Fenton - August is the wettest month of the year on average at 57mm, but June isn't too far behind at 55mm. August is also the joint second sunniest month of the year in percent terms at around 43% (July also 43% and May 45%). If I remember correctly, June has similar % sunshine levels to April and October. These are only rough calculations - there's a formula to work it out somewhere.

For a month with such long daylight, it is really wasted in June, especially when you get the 'return of the westerlies'. On average it can only just manage to get slightly more sun than August in total, despite the much longer daylight in June's favour. It has always been the weakest summer month.

Edit - I just worked it out and this is what I got, showing sunshine as % of possible total (I was a little off but not by much):

May 44%

July 41%

August 41%

September 40%

April 37%

June 37%

October 34%

February 32%

March 32%

November 28%

December 24%

January 23%

Yes it is a case of perspective - my post being reflective of conditions more so in the NW quarter of the country. Not surprised June is less sunnier than July and August or September in Leeds, as these months tend to see more of an atlantic influence and westerly/southwesterly airstreams which bring cloud to western parts but more broken skies east of the Pennines. June on the other hand is more likely to see more cyclonic conditions with airstreams from all corners - any from a north-east quarter more conducive to cloud cover, April and May also see northerly and easterly airstreams much more so than Jul-Sept, but cloud has much less of a tendency to bubble up through the day aided by the colder temps at the surface - less heating.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

Accuweather going for a poor summer for the BI

120x90_05131224_2016-uk-summer-highlights.jpg

 

650x366_05041442_europesummer.jpg

Edited by sundog
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