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Well its that time of year again when many peoples thoughts must be turning towards what Summer has in store for us this year. After a reminder what a proper summer should be like (2013) Summer has deteriorated in recent years with last year being hardly anything to write home about. So what will this year bring?

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1 minute ago, Milhouse said:

Well its that time of year again when many peoples thoughts must be turning towards what Summer has in store for us this year. After a reminder what a proper summer should be like (2013) Summer has deteriorated in recent years with last year being hardly anything to write home about. So what will this year bring?

Disagree both 2104 and 15 were decent where I am..seen far worse in the past

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Oops, big mistake there. Summer 1983 was a very good summer, it certainly not what Matt Hugo is trying to make out it was.

"After one of the strongest El Nino events in years through this past winter, of which is comparable to the likes of the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 El Nino’s, there is some correlation and connection that supports a generally cooler and more unsettled summer for the UK, particularly when there is expected to be the development of a La Nina, which now seems to be likely as the rest of the year progresses. Indeed, both the summers of 1983 and 1998, but particularly 1998, were often unsettled with low pressure systems and unsettled conditions never too far away from the UK."

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Oops, big mistake there. Summer 1983 was a very good summer, it certainly not what Matt Hugo is trying to make out it was.

"After one of the strongest El Nino events in years through this past winter, of which is comparable to the likes of the 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 El Nino’s, there is some correlation and connection that supports a generally cooler and more unsettled summer for the UK, particularly when there is expected to be the development of a La Nina, which now seems to be likely as the rest of the year progresses. Indeed, both the summers of 1983 and 1998, but particularly 1998, were often unsettled with low pressure systems and unsettled conditions never too far away from the UK."

that is bizarre. According to Trevor Harley June was cool and cloudy (but dry) but here is a quote about July '83:

"The hottest of the century (19.5C), and indeed the hottest month since records began. Also mostly dry and sunny, but with some severe thunderstorms. A ridge of high pressure extended from the Azores as the month started. The temperature reached the magic 32C somewhere in the country every day from the 12-16th, and the average daily maximum at Heathrow in the month was 27.6C. There were 17 consecutive days above 27C (80F) somewhere in the country between the 3rd and 19th, and 22 days above 27C in total; the temperature exceeded 21C somewhere in the country every day but one. The highest temperature of the month was 33.7C at Liphook (Hants.)"

August was also hot and dry in the main.

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I see long range forecasts and  read responces from others.The sound of a cold wet summer sends disappointing chils down peoples spines..And on the other hand a forecast of a dry warm summer does the opposite..No one knows what summer 2016 will be like.. You can read all the models you want.. the first day of June is 6/7 weeks away..

Aslong as the summer is average or slightly above i will be happy.. :spiteful: 

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6 hours ago, Milhouse said:

Well its that time of year again when many peoples thoughts must be turning towards what Summer has in store for us this year. After a reminder what a proper summer should be like (2013) Summer has deteriorated in recent years with last year being hardly anything to write home about. So what will this year bring?

I see 1983 being mentioned above. That'd do very nicely! An average high of 27C at Heathrow for July sounds just about perfect with loads of warm evenings too to sit out in and enjoy. That year August was very warm too, unlike so many recent years where it has become a chilly early Autumn month. Plus there were some really severe thunderstorms. Yes please.

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I really could do without the misery of a summer like 2012 or 2007. Im moving into my first house in a few weeks and a nice summer would do just fine to get all the garden jobs sorted out, then being able to sit back and enjoy some warm weather. A decent slightly above average summer will do me. Anything spectacular is a bonus.

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I think last summer the cold pool in the atlantic had an affect on our weather,helping to keep temps a bit surpressed ,especially in ireland. Wonder will it have the same affect this summer? 

I wouldnt mind a summer like last yr cool-average temps and quite dry overall.

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It would be really nice if August could pull it out the bag this year. It had its moments last year and in 2012 it was the best summer month, but only because April-July were shockingly bad. A nice warm/hot and dry at least first two thirds of the month would be great. After the August bank holiday I'm less bothered with prolonged settled weather.

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Last summer was decent. Full of extremes, 36c recorded, big storms here and there. One of the more exciting summers that's for sure. 

Hope this one turns out fairly similar. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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last summer was the 4th coldest summer in the last 30 years i read some plade.. July was poor.mentiong the mini heatwave, that lasted about 3 days. at the start of July.. That was the only heat we had in this part of the world.In that month.. I would take July 2013 and 2014 again this year.. :yahoo:

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Wouldn't mind a repeat of July 2014, a great month for thunderstorms. July 2015 would be nice too: record breaking heat to begin with, and then near-record breaking cold in the last third. A crazy month.

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21 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

I see 1983 being mentioned above. That'd do very nicely! An average high of 27C at Heathrow for July sounds just about perfect with loads of warm evenings too to sit out in and enjoy. That year August was very warm too, unlike so many recent years where it has become a chilly early Autumn month. Plus there were some really severe thunderstorms. Yes please.

yep July 83 would do very nicely very similar to June 2005 hot but not too humid... for me this beats July 2006 easily and just edges out July 1995. July 1983 is the best July in my life time.

Edited by cheeky_monkey

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got a terrible feeling this summer will be similar to 2015.

 

Aside from the 2 day heatwave and awesome elevated storms one night in July, that was literally it as far as anything of remote interest goes IMBY

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On 14 April 2016 at 5:43 PM, johnholmes said:

Hmm just as I thought from seeing other recent ENSO forecasts looks like La Nina is most likely to hit around the end of Summer - beginning of Autumn at the earliest. Said this in another thread before but if ENSO neutral conditions do indeed prevail for the early-middle part of the summer which apparently means more chance of settled weather and a decent hot spell, which last year's summer although it was dry, lacked then I'm happy :) 

Interestingly 2007 and 2012's poor summers were both caused by a La Nina following a weaker El Nino, that arrived in mid/late Spring and caused most the summer to be a washout. 1998 was an El Nino summer much like 2015 - I remember the reports about how 'bad' it supposedly was but on reflection it wasn't terrible compared to what would arrive in 2007 and 2012.

Encouragingly, 1983 - an excellent summer was during the period of an El Nino declining during spring similar to what we are seeing now, and ENSO neutral conditions prevailing during the summer months; the La Nina did not arrive until the Autumn.

I agree with not taking any long range forecasts about the upcoming Summer 2016 seriously this early on - For instance I recall WSI was predicting a 'dry, warmer than normal summer for the UK and Scandinavia' at this point in 2012 and well the rest is history :rofl:

 

Edited by wishingforsnow

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After the abysmal wet period in November and December, could really do with a bit or a rebalance with some lengthy dry periods this summer.. alas our driest period of the year on average is now, and late May onwards usually sees a return back to wet conditions especially in August which has been woeful for far too long now.

The cold SST values to our NW could once again result in a rather cool affair with the longwave trough stuck across the country and chilly NW winds, much like last summer. Late July 2015 was terrible, maxima were lower then than many a day in December last year..

Would be good to see a decent warm sunny spell in May as well, they've become fairly rare in recent years, though we had some good spells in May 08, 09, 10 and 12.

Edited by damianslaw

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10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

After the abysmal wet period in November and December, could really do with a bit or a rebalance with some lengthy dry periods this summer.. alas our driest period of the year on average is now, and late May onwards usually sees a return back to wet conditions especially in August which has been woeful for far too long now.

The cold SST values to our NE could once again result in a rather cool affair with the longwave trough stuck across the country and chilly NW winds, much like last summer. Late July 2015 was terrible, maxima were lower then than many a day in December last year..

Would be good to see a decent warm sunny spell in May as well, they've become fairly rare in recent years, though we had some good spells in May 08, 09, 10 and 12.

Though for me a lot of last summer was dry and settled which is nothing to complain about, most of the time there was a nagging breeze from the Northerly winds keeping temperatures suppressed. Here in the South during Summer 2015 I only sporadically saw the temperature rise to 24-25 degrees or above. Most of the time it was around 19-22 degrees during the day whereas in 2013 and 2014 there were some decent hot spells and regular daytime temperatures comfortably over 20 degrees. the cold SST values will not be as bad or not be still present by the time this summer rolls around. I also would not be surprised if we are entering another period of a cluster of predominantely dry months, due to the extremely unsettled Winter just gone - I don't see a 2007/2012 style washout following it because then it would literally be almost a year of mostly unsettled weather which even for the UK would be extreme.

Edited by wishingforsnow

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My feelings? Chilly NW winds, cold nights, cloud bubbling up around 10am only to melt away around 8pm leading to another cold night.  Daytime maxima barely exceeding 16C let alone 20-25C.  In other words, "Summer" 2015 rinsed and repeated.  Since 2011 hot summer spells appear to have been restricted to a diminishing number of hot days in July, 2015 saw just three tolerably warm days at the beginning of July and that was it.  Otherwise that cold, NWly breeze all day every day.

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I enjoyed summer 2015. Most days above 20 as you'd expect, and a solid amount of 25+. There was no real heatwave but I had a lot of enjoyable walks and cycles in my T-shirt and shorts, and had many a dinner in the garden. That's what summer is all about! 

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If the cold pool in the Atlantic really is part of AMO becoming negative, we could be stuck in this for years to come! Hope not! :(

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I have a feeling the whole summer could just be a failed attempt to repeat the misery of June 2012 and temps will struggle to reach 20C.

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On 4/15/2016 at 10:22 PM, Wildswimmer Pete said:

My feelings? Chilly NW winds, cold nights, cloud bubbling up around 10am only to melt away around 8pm leading to another cold night.  Daytime maxima barely exceeding 16C let alone 20-25C.  In other words, "Summer" 2015 rinsed and repeated.  Since 2011 hot summer spells appear to have been restricted to a diminishing number of hot days in July, 2015 saw just three tolerably warm days at the beginning of July and that was it.  Otherwise that cold, NWly breeze all day every day.

my thoughts as well, I'm thinking a summer dominated by low pressure and mostly NW winds

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