Summer 2016

[weatherguru14]

I know i've said it numerous times. No one should bother with long range summer forecasts..the weather outlook site,  i have read 3 summer forecasts one positive the seond negative and the  3rd back to being positive again..

last summer was the 4th coldest in 30 years.. and i agree witht that.. it was cold..We would be unlucky to get that again surely?? I  would be happy with a repeat of 2013  a better august in the mix would be a bonus

[Summer Sun]

4th summer outlook from Matt Hugo

Summary

Quote

Throughout the last four weeks there has been a subtle trend towards a greater possibility of higher pressure across the UK this summer than lower pressure. The initial thoughts during late March and early April were towards a progression towards far more unsettled conditions as July and August arrived, with some of the best conditions during early summer. However, May now looks to be quite a changeable and unsettled month which contradicts those initial thoughts to start with. As is often the case across the UK, the main indicators for the summer period are often far more contradictory and difficult to analyze than those prior to winter.

However, at this juncture given the information of the last four weeks, the overall outcome is now for the summer across the UK to be far more ‘average’, with a bias towards higher pressure over the three months than lower pressure. This would lead to some very pleasant summer weather at times with no doubt a number of individual spells of hot weather too, but there remains a tentative comment and bias towards more unsettled conditions potentially developing during August, with the best summer weather through June and July. At the moment the probability of an unsettled and cool summer period (for example, 2012) is low or perhaps very low and this summer may well be one of the better ones of recent years.

Full thoughts here: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3203&title=Summer+2016+update+4

[summer blizzard]

From a purely statistical point of view i looked at years which saw a Mach CET less than 6C and a April CET less than 8C and while there were some reasonable summers in there i have to say that summer months even 1C above average were few and far between (2013 being your best hope).

Not suggesting a bad summer but perhaps suggesting that this won't be a summer to remember for the right reasons. 

[Thundery wintry showers]

Just wondering, did that analysis take into account the fact that cool springs and cool summers were more common prior to the 20th century because our climatic baseline was cooler?  In recent months the mean global temperature has been running at over 1C above pre-industrial (1850s) levels.

[summer blizzard]

No, just a simple 6C and 8C threshold and namely looking for months above 17C in summer.. 

[cheeky_monkey]

17 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

I know i've said it numerous times. No one should bother with long range summer forecasts..the weather outlook site,  i have read 3 summer forecasts one positive the seond negative and the  3rd back to being positive again..

last summer was the 4th coldest in 30 years.. and i agree witht that.. it was cold..We would be unlucky to get that again surely?? I  would be happy with a repeat of 2013  a better august in the mix would be a bonus

Cold where exactly?..again here he SE it was a reasonably good summer with a large number of 25c and above days esp mid June through to Mid August and was predominately dry..personally I would prefer a nice warm June over a nice warm August..i would take a hot June followed by a cool July and a warm August.

[Nouska]

28 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Cold where exactly?..again here he SE it was a reasonably good summer with a large number of 25c and above days esp mid June through to Mid August and was predominately dry..personally I would prefer a nice warm June over a nice warm August..i would take a hot June followed by a cool July and a warm August.

For a good part of the country it was certainly cool overall and on many occasions it would be classed as cold.

Even the SE was just average on the last thirty year climatology.

 

[weatherguru14]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Cold where exactly?..again here he SE it was a reasonably good summer with a large number of 25c and above days esp mid June through to Mid August and was predominately dry..personally I would prefer a nice warm June over a nice warm August..i would take a hot June followed by a cool July and a warm August.

just the south east (yes bbc life does exist outside of london)the rest of the entire country had a cold summer .. anyway i have seen  numerous ppl from south eastern part  of the UK agree  that last year was a cold summer..Just ppl with blinkers on that  always tend to  be biased would disagree..

Edited April 28, 2016 by weatherguru14

[Neiller22]

3 weeks ago Matt Hugo predicted a cool and unsettled summer. Now latest update suggests a pretty decent summer. Best get wake up look out the window a go with it. Because the experts havnt a clue and like the wind change constantly. Basically nowadays it is as hard as ever to predict the weeks and months in advance. His next update will prob resort to poor summer again! 

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

3 weeks ago Matt Hugo predicted a cool and unsettled summer. Now latest update suggests a pretty decent summer. Best get wake up look out the window a go with it. Because the experts havnt a clue and like the wind change constantly. Basically nowadays it is as hard as ever to predict the weeks and months in advance. His next update will prob resort to poor summer again! 

It's not hard to see why though. La Nina could make or break the summer. I think there's fairly high confidence that at least the first half of the summer could be pretty good; the second half will sadly be dictated by La Nina which, if it does turn up, could once again deliver a rubbish August like 2010.

[wishingforsnow]

18 hours ago, MP-R said:

It's not hard to see why though. La Nina could make or break the summer. I think there's fairly high confidence that at least the first half of the summer could be pretty good; the second half will sadly be dictated by La Nina which, if it does turn up, could once again deliver a rubbish August like 2010.

Yes I agree, as I've said previously too, there is a lot of confusion at the moment regarding which way summer will go in regards to when La Nina will begin.

In my opinion, if we get really lucky and La Nina holds off until Autumn we could get a very good summer. If it starts during the second half then I think the good part of summer could be early on (May/June/July) and then another bad August like 2014. That's my take on how things could go based on current evidence available as to how Summer 2016 could turn out e.g. La Nina is more likely to begin in late Summer/Autumn.

Also along with what @weatherguru14 said, don't take long range summer forecasts as gospel during Spring. 

There's this as an example: http://www.lse.co.uk/politicsNews.asp?code=n8jugit6&headline=Europe_to_see_cooler_than_normal_summer__WSI

predicting a 'cooler than normal Summer' for everywhere in Europe apart from Scandinavia and the Nordic Mainland region' in 2013 - after that the UK got it's hottest spell of weather since 2006.

Also this in 2012: http://www.prweb.com/releases/summerweathereurope/europetempsmayjunejuly/prweb9428956.htm

And then the UK got yet another unsettled non event summer and the wettest summer since 2007. 

So don't rely on the belief that long range forecasts at this stage for summer will be 100% accurate 

 

Edited April 29, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[weatherguru14]

Mentioning long range forecasts.. how the hell can anyone predict summeer.. when one of the main wether models GFS cant even get nexts weeks weather correct..the "hottish" spell that was predicted  on this mornings run as vanished again..

[stainesbloke]

On 28 April 2016 at 2:00 PM, Nouska said:

For a good part of the country it was certainly cool overall and on many occasions it would be classed as cold.

Even the SE was just average on the last thirty year climatology.

 

Thank you. Some proof that Summer 2015, although better in the SE than the rest of the UK, was nothing special and just average. I expect quite a few days at 25C or above living near London; it's only a couple of degrees above average. I'm hoping this summer will bring some proper warmth and sunshine and much less of the wind, cloud and cool temperatures that have marred most of the last decade.

[weatherguru14]

I know i keep saying it.. But how reliable are the models?? the GFS  this evening.. is mouthwatering if you like early summer weather.. I really hope it turns out to be true..really annoying if it doesnt.

[March]

On 4/29/2016 at 11:22 PM, stainesbloke said:

Thank you. Some proof that Summer 2015, although better in the SE than the rest of the UK, was nothing special and just average. I expect quite a few days at 25C or above living near London; it's only a couple of degrees above average. I'm hoping this summer will bring some proper warmth and sunshine and much less of the wind, cloud and cool temperatures that have marred most of the last decade.

An average summer in the SE is still  decent summer. Spent most of last summer outside and even as far north as here in north Beds I had a great time. 

[stainesbloke]

7 hours ago, March said:

An average summer in the SE is still  decent summer. Spent most of last summer outside and even as far north as here in north Beds I had a great time. 

That is true. Average here ain't bad. I just disagreed with people saying it was great. The great weather stubbornly stayed mostly S of the Channel in France, not affecting the SE as much as it would do normally apart from the odd day here and there. Sorry but I'm a warmth and sun lover in Summer and will always look for anything above average!

[March]

8 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

That is true. Average here ain't bad. I just disagreed with people saying it was great. The great weather stubbornly stayed mostly S of the Channel in France, not affecting the SE as much as it would do normally apart from the odd day here and there. Sorry but I'm a warmth and sun lover in Summer and will always look for anything above average!

Why? What can you do in 30C that you can't in 22C? 

[wishingforsnow]

I split my time between the South East and South West and although I felt we got the best out of an average to bad summer for the UK last year (where the frequency of settled and warmer weather was very much dependant on where you hang your hat) on many days I felt there was a nagging cool breeze even if it was mostly dry where I lived and that temperatures were very much suppressed - there were only a few occasional days recording 25 degrees or more and the temperature was mainly variable from 18-23 degrees in my location on top of it being breezy. Hopefully we'll see longer periods of warm/hot settled spells or another heatwave sometime this summer - this is what Summer 15' was lacking in comparison to 2013 and 2014 which were much warmer.

Edited May 1, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[stainesbloke]

5 hours ago, March said:

Why? What can you do in 30C that you can't in 22C? 

Swim outdoors without freezing? Don't need 30C but my ideal summer temps are around 25-28C. That feels warm in the shade, even with a breeze. Plus temps in the high 20's during the day usually give lovely warm evenings. Nothing better than being able to sit out til late in light clothes enjoying good company and drinks and not have to wear masses of clothing. A max of 22C is ok IF there is a clear sky and little wind. Otherwise it feels cool to me and the evening inevitably turns chilly. Finally, my allotment fruit and veg love warmth, not soggy cold!

[cheese]

23 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Swim outdoors without freezing? Don't need 30C but my ideal summer temps are around 25-28C. That feels warm in the shade, even with a breeze. Plus temps in the high 20's during the day usually give lovely warm evenings. Nothing better than being able to sit out til late in light clothes enjoying good company and drinks and not have to wear masses of clothing. A max of 22C is ok IF there is a clear sky and little wind. Otherwise it feels cool to me and the evening inevitably turns chilly. Finally, my allotment fruit and veg love warmth, not soggy cold!

My ideal summer temperature is 21-23C. I don't mind higher temps occasionally, but not on a daily basis.  I remember a few days last summer being overcast with temps of 22C, and it didn't feel cool to me - people were still in T-shirts and shorts, and 22C is a pretty normal temperature for summer.

Only downside for me would be the evenings would be fairly cool, but I'm more concerned about daytime comfort.

Edited May 1, 2016 by cheese

[stainesbloke]

30 minutes ago, cheese said:

My ideal summer temperature is 21-23C. I don't mind higher temps occasionally, but not on a daily basis.  I remember a few days last summer being overcast with temps of 22C, and it didn't feel cool to me - people were still in T-shirts and shorts, and 22C is a pretty normal temperature for summer.

Only downside for me would be the evenings would be fairly cool, but I'm more concerned about daytime comfort.

Well everyone is different I suppose. I used to love extreme heat as it didn't happen that often in the UK but I'd struggle with it now! Saying that, it's so nice to be able to sit or lie in the shade and not feel cold. I remember plenty of occasions at 22C which were cloudy and windy in which I felt decidely chilly. All depends on how sunny it is and if we can lose the omnipresent infernal wind of the last 10 years or so!

Edited May 1, 2016 by stainesbloke

[Wildswimmer Pete]

On 01/05/2016 at 4:16 PM, March said:

Why? What can you do in 30C that you can't in 22C? 

In my neck of the woods, "summer" '15 rarely even reached 20C let alone anything remotely resembling "hot".  Day after day of PM air and cold NW winds when maxima usually didn't even make 16C meanwhile every breakfast time saw the grey lid slamming down only to melt away around 8pm leading to another unseasonably cold, clear night. 

[Summer Sun]

Forget spring this weekend will see an early taste of summer for the south

[stainesbloke]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Forget spring this weekend will see an early taste of summer for the south

Bring it on! About time. Lovely temperatures, not too warm, should get some nice evenings too fingers crossed, to enjoy a BBQ or two  

[Costa Del Fal]

Will take 25c very much thank you. Superb conditions. Could feel locally hot in the Midlands and SE should winds be light enough.