Summer 2016

[stainesbloke]

The very interesting runs for next week continue from both GFS and ECM. Chances of some rather warm temps and perhaps a few storms. It certainly is turning into a very reasonable month, after so many sub-standard Augusts in recent years. Keeping fingers crossed for fine weather over the BH weekend. Just need to get through this weekend....welcome rain for some, really don't need those vile winds though at this time of the year.

Edited August 18, 2016 by stainesbloke

[Matthew.]

Sunshine for London next week

[markyo]

Looking forward to the rain by me friday,should give nature a little spruce up and clean,just in time for a bit of warmth next bank holiday,good timing i think. Feels so much cleaner after a few hours of much needed rain,nature taking a shower,nothing better.

[stainesbloke]

41 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Sunshine for London next week

Very nice if it happens. Though if some runs of the major models are to be believed, could add up to 10C on those temps! Extreme caution required though.

[stainesbloke]

13 minutes ago, markyo said:

Looking forward to the rain by me friday,should give nature a little spruce up and clean,just in time for a bit of warmth next bank holiday,good timing i think. Feels so much cleaner after a few hours of much needed rain,nature taking a shower,nothing better.

For once we agree lol. A good soak wouldn't go amiss here as long as it clears away sharpish. Could do without the gales though, completely unnecessary and annoying.

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Very nice if it happens. Though if some runs of the major models are to be believed, could add up to 10C on those temps! Extreme caution required though.

Won't be hitting 35C towards the last week of August...would require something quite special for that. We're at the time of year now where solar input decline is really quite evident. Low 30s much more possible. 

It's pretty much the inverse of those late Feb cold spells that are never quite as cold as they would have been 4 weeks earlier.

Edited August 18, 2016 by CreweCold

[markyo]

38 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

For once we agree lol. A good soak wouldn't go amiss here as long as it clears away sharpish. Could do without the gales though, completely unnecessary and annoying.

Wow,i need to sit down!! Both points i agree with you,can very much do without the gales,not summer weather at all. History in the making on this one!

[Frost HoIIow]

41 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Won't be hitting 35C towards the last week of August...would require something quite special for that. We're at the time of year now where solar input decline is really quite evident. Low 30s much more possible. 

It's pretty much the inverse of those late Feb cold spells that are never quite as cold as they would have been 4 weeks earlier.

Yes I noticed a decrease in sun strength today out and about compared to say a month ago or June. In about a month or thereabouts it's strength (or lack of it) will be comparable to March.

[Mapantz]

I'm looking forward to a break in this current spell of weather. It has been a fantastic few weeks of August, but i'm also looking forward to a spell of heavy rain and some stormy-ish conditions on Saturday. I was going fishing, but with the Spring tides, that's out of the question. It'll be a trip to the coastline though, but at height, to get a taster of the strong winds!   

[stainesbloke]

55 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Won't be hitting 35C towards the last week of August...would require something quite special for that. We're at the time of year now where solar input decline is really quite evident. Low 30s much more possible. 

It's pretty much the inverse of those late Feb cold spells that are never quite as cold as they would have been 4 weeks earlier.

It's extremely unlikely that we'll be hitting 35C next week, but some runs have been showing those sorts of temps for parts of the S.

11 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Yes I noticed a decrease in sun strength today out and about compared to say a month ago or June. In about a month or thereabouts it's strength (or lack of it) will be comparable to March.

The strength of the sun, while diminished somewhat from it's summer peak, still packs a fair punch. I've been quite badly sunburnt at the beginning of September before (when I was a stroppy teenager). Summer ain't over just yet 

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Lynn Tegid (Bala) water temp measured at 22C which is slightly higher than usual for the time of year.  I was using a snorkeller's watch to measure the temp rather than my calibrated glass thermo which I didn't pack in my kit due its fragility.  

[Evening thunder]

As I like, or at least find interest in many weather types, I'm kind of looking forward to the windy day Saturday as well as some rain tomorrow, I like a good old blustery day once in a while (even in summer), something to look at and feel, and kind of makes me feel more alive  lol

With the models for next week as well, it seems we may actually be getting a nice variety of conditions/synoptic now which is nice to see, rather than just continuous quite cloudy westerly between high and low pressure.

 

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Won't be hitting 35C towards the last week of August...would require something quite special for that. We're at the time of year now where solar input decline is really quite evident. Low 30s much more possible. 

It's pretty much the inverse of those late Feb cold spells that are never quite as cold as they would have been 4 weeks earlier.

Well if some of the 20C upper charts do come off that would be something special, and we've hit 35C in early September before  

While there will be some effect I'd have thought late February sunshine would make more of a difference tbh, as that precludes inversions and increases the near surface lapse rates in such a situation, whereas in late August there isn't such a sort of 'threshold' effect, it's too early for (all day) inversions usually. Uppers of around 10C in April can and do deliver 25C temps or even a touch more under the right synoptic, with similar sun strength to late August.. even the 1st October 2011 saw 30C with 15C uppers (and late March 2012 saw temps up to about 23C and a roughly 15C difference between 850's and surface maxima in places including Scotland).

Agreed it's unlikely at this stage though, as it would probably take the more extreme near or above 20C upper runs.

Edited August 18, 2016 by Evening thunder

[B87]

We will probably see something around 30-32c here. After this cloudy spell, normal sunshine levels return as well, so the month will almost certainly be the first August since 2005 to record average sun! Temps look they will end up slightly above average, looking at the forecast.

It's about time August was decent, hopefully we can have 11 years of warm, sunny August's now!

[Weather-history]

Another good day

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Another good day

 

again a lot better than here, Stafford capital of north sea mist, was horrid here until around 11.30am, even a slight sea fret for a time

[SLAMMER]

it must be the driest summer here in Cardiff for a long while.  There are cracks in the grass and its quite burnt yet still people are saying its not been a good summer.

 

this is totaly imby i appreciate that but even work colleagues are sayiing its been okay when i guess it will be the driest summer for quite a few years.

[Summer Sun]

Huge range of possibilities later next week good agreement to Tuesday for temperatures

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37126285?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

[Frost HoIIow]

38 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

 

The strength of the sun, while diminished somewhat from it's summer peak, still packs a fair punch. I've been quite badly sunburnt at the beginning of September before (when I was a stroppy teenager). Summer ain't over just yet 

Oh for sure, even September can bring pleasantly warm Summer like days at times but the later sunrise and earlier sunset mean the days are not as warm for as long. It cools down quicker in the evening and warms up later in the mornings compared to May-August so for the most part peoples homes don't get too warm with more time for noctural cooling. I had 2 air frosts here in September 2005 (-1C on 17th and 0C on 24th) & one more recently in September 2012 (0C on 22nd). Goes to show how the longer evenings can aid in cooling at least up here. With that said obviously for you folks down south the sun is a bit stronger than here all year round.

Edited August 18, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Huge range of possibilities later next week good agreement to Tuesday for temperatures

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37126285?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

like I've been thinking SS, not great for Monday, last few GFS runs showing a wet day for midlands

[Evening thunder]

To add to my post above, sorry if this goes on a bit..

Basically, in winter because the sun is so low in December the change from then to late February is larger in terms of the percentage change in both peak solar elevation (pretty much doubles) and the amount of atmosphere the sun shines through (possibly more than double in December?), compared to between June and late August, when the sun chances from high to still relatively high.

Also, in terms of day length, in say June given a clear day and no change in other variables, the rate of temp rise usually slows and remains within a couple degrees of the maxima for several hours, as lapse rates are limited by factors such as convection and mixing preventing near surface temperatures rising too much higher than temperatures higher up (such as 850hpa level) allow. Probably a bit simplistic but a general rule I find.
In late August, there's probably enough solar radiation for temperatures to still approach that 'limit' (even if for not quite as long), and maxima to be almost as high.

[Nick L]

It's pretty warm out there this evening, especially after recent cool nights.

[Dangerous55019]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Yes I noticed a decrease in sun strength today out and about compared to say a month ago or June. In about a month or thereabouts it's strength (or lack of it) will be comparable to March.

Is this chart of any use? 

Does actually help if I attach the link to the website
http://windowseat.ca/sun/

Edited August 18, 2016 by Dangerous55019
Forgot to attach link to website

[Dangerous55019]

I dunno if its the heat and humidity this evening, or the quality of the light, but for some reason its reminding me of the October heatwave that we had back in 2011.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Is this chart of any use? 

Does actually help if I attach the link to the website
http://windowseat.ca/sun/

interesting, day length, my birthday same daylight hours as April 10th

[Frost HoIIow]

32 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Is this chart of any use? 

Does actually help if I attach the link to the website
http://windowseat.ca/sun/

Yes that's a good website for comparing