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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

And regarding the data access, with the GFS I see pretty much exactly the same as the public do.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
12 minutes ago, markyo said:

Don't see that at all,in the southern areas yes but widespread temps further north of 25plus may be hard to find......thankfully!

You watch, in that setup the forecast will get warmer and warmer as we get closer to Monday. I really don't see how it can be down at 22-24C with high pressure slap bang on top of us and increasingly warm 850 hPa temps. The GFS is notorious for undercooking temperatures. It's very normal for forecasts to warm as you get closer to the event- it happened in the last spell in July and I can see it happening again.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

And regarding the data access, with the GFS I see pretty much exactly the same as the public do.

Yes fair enough, I can see you're just going off what the GFS is showing, but I think it's lower than it should be for Monday, as seems to happen a lot. It massively undercooked temperatures in that last warm spell in July.

In fact we had 27C in Manchester on Monday 18th in a less favourable setup than the one being shown for next Monday.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
18 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

You watch, in that setup the forecast will get warmer and warmer as we get closer to Monday. I really don't see how it can be down at 22-24C with high pressure slap bang on top of us and increasingly warm 850 hPa temps. The GFS is notorious for undercooking temperatures. It's very normal for forecasts to warm as you get closer to the event- it happened in the last spell in July and I can see it happening again.

Still sticking to my guns on this one,just don't see those high temps coming off. Hopefully i'm right as they are pointless in my opinion.

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
On 3 August 2016 at 15:01, Nouska said:

A look at the JJA Z500 anomalies for the climate segments mentioned by Reef show a very stark contrast.

'95-'06  8639fbe416b625e845a7d8fcfc9d1906.png'07-'15  b569844c61e0f2c0929161dda7156daf.png

The first image suggests an easterly drift with cloudier mornings giving way to sunny afternoons and probably a good deal more sunshine than that in the west.

The recent chart for 2007 to 2015 shows an anomalous cold upper airmass which will be very cloudy during the daytime due to convective infill. You probably get temperatures that are not hugely different but what people see with their eyes will be enormously different.

As some have commented a settled, anti-cyclonic summer is what we really are looking for rather than short, hot snaps. We need this cold upper airmass to shift once again, as Nouska greatly illustrated, and bring a return to the likes of more cloudless conditions. We will see a return of this pattern once again I suspect in coming years with normal sunshine returning and how summer should be for a time as the Law of averages dictates. All the variables need to roll 6 together though to get a truly historic summer like that of 95'. 

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Ah the 12Z reduces some of the difference between the GFS and the Met Office forecasts for here (which show no maxima above average here until at least Monday (and generally at least a degree below until Sunday..) although they can often be 1-2C low as well.

The ECM shows quite coolish uppers coming in for most this weekend, then only about 2 days of >10C 850's with the plume that is quickly shunted out the way. Not that inspiring really considering some of the model charts and teases recently, especially the GFS for this spell. Mind you the plume may be interesting/hot even if it wont get that hot here due to the onshore wind.

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

In the shorter term, there will be the possibility of some air frosts in sheltered spots of Scotland tonight!

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and blisteringly hot
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
1 hour ago, Matthew Wilson said:

As some have commented a settled, anti-cyclonic summer is what we really are looking for rather than short, hot snaps. We need this cold upper airmass to shift once again, as Nouska greatly illustrated, and bring a return to the likes of more cloudless conditions. We will see a return of this pattern once again I suspect in coming years with normal sunshine returning and how summer should be for a time as the Law of averages dictates. All the variables need to roll 6 together though to get a truly historic summer like that of 95'. 

Hopefully it will happen shortly as soon as the Sun starts behaving itself again (and hopefully not the beginning of a Grand Minimum :cold: )

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Felt quite chilly today,had one late fizzling shower but that's soon dried up after,missed the heavy shower yesterday to the north and got the hay all baled today:yahoo: on one of the coolest days,but with sun at 16c max more like 12.5c when cloudy.

 

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
3 hours ago, Nick L said:

In the shorter term, there will be the possibility of some air frosts in sheltered spots of Scotland tonight!

With -2.5 recorded in early july and -4.5 at the end of August it is certainly possible for subzero mins even in early August .

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
10 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

With -2.5 recorded in early july and -4.5 at the end of August it is certainly possible for subzero mins even in early August .

Hi do you happen to know the website where it has the UK daily max/mins records for the whole year? meant to look for it a while ago but you have reminded me.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
9 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Hi do you happen to know the website where it has the UK daily max/mins records for the whole year? meant to look for it a while ago but you have reminded me.

Is TORRO what you're looking for?

http://www.torro.org.uk/extreme_info.php

 

The coldest recorded August minima were all registered after the 20th, it would be impressive if we could challenge them at a much earlier stage of the month.

AUGUST:

- 4.5 23.9 Lagganlia (Highland) 21 Aug 1973

- 4.4 24.1 Grantown on Spey 21 Aug 1973

- 3.3 26 Inverdruie (Highland) 21 Aug 1973

- 3.4 25.9 Kinbrace (Highland) 25 Aug 1986

Edited by Relativistic
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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
2 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Is TORRO what you're looking for?

http://www.torro.org.uk/extreme_info.php

That's the one, cheers.

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

Quite tempting to think, looking at some output, that this coming warm-up will be a 2 day affair at best. In which case it won't be a heatwave at all. However, plenty of options on the table with some stunning Gefs perturbations extending the possible heat by days...all to play for. Could still be some periods of whining about summer-like conditions in er, summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I've just been looking at my own weather data, in particular, the lowest daily maximum temperatures.. I recorded 17.2°C at around 6am, on Tuesday or Wednesday I think? My data table didn't log it as the lowest maximum though, it was logged as 15.9°C - I was slightly confused by this. I figured it out, I do midnight to midnight rollover times for my data, as that's what I have always done, and gotten used to. By doing that, the 17.2°C lowest maximum was wiped out around 11pm, an hour before the rollover time, so it logged the cooler temperature. It makes perfect sense to me now, that the MetO do 9am to 9am rollover times, to stop data getting skewed, like my own example. If I had set 9am to 9am when I first started logging my data, my own averages would actually be higher than the ones I have logged now - they're still pretty good for Summer as it is.
I'll have to wait until December 31st to change rollover times!   sorry2.gif 

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
6 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

Ah the 12Z reduces some of the difference between the GFS and the Met Office forecasts for here (which show no maxima above average here until at least Monday (and generally at least a degree below until Sunday..) although they can often be 1-2C low as well.

The ECM shows quite coolish uppers coming in for most this weekend, then only about 2 days of >10C 850's with the plume that is quickly shunted out the way. Not that inspiring really considering some of the model charts and teases recently, especially the GFS for this spell. Mind you the plume may be interesting/hot even if it wont get that hot here due to the onshore wind.

Both GFS and the Met Office have Saturday and Sunday under 20C here with cloud, very disappointing. My high hopes for August have now been dashed and I think it will turn out to be a poor month here. All this week will be under 20C.

Oh well, I guess there's always next year. No doubt we'll have to endure another very wet and cloudy winter though.

BTW, this is what the BBC say for here: 

Periods of light rain mixed with some brief, drier spells on Thursday. More in the way of dry weather Friday and Saturday and generally becoming fresher.

They show a high of 17C on Thursday and 19C on Friday and Saturday. Can someone tell me how that is 'fresher'? :cc_confused:

 

 

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
6 hours ago, cheese said:

Both GFS and the Met Office have Saturday and Sunday under 20C here with cloud, very disappointing. My high hopes for August have now been dashed and I think it will turn out to be a poor month here. All this week will be under 20C.

Oh well, I guess there's always next year. No doubt we'll have to endure another very wet and cloudy winter though.

BTW, this is what the BBC say for here: 

Periods of light rain mixed with some brief, drier spells on Thursday. More in the way of dry weather Friday and Saturday and generally becoming fresher.

They show a high of 17C on Thursday and 19C on Friday and Saturday. Can someone tell me how that is 'fresher'? :cc_confused:

 

 

you are in a better area than me, exposed to Cheshire gap here, dry day for Leeds today no doubt, don't mind what we have as long as it's not the worst setup the NW'ly

3 day summer next week, then likely back to Atlantic crap

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Yes I was expecting a warm sunny from tomorrow but out of nowhere we have this mischief disturbance bringing rain today then trapping a load of cloud under the approaching high. Just hope that tomorrow it can clear up with at least Friday to Sunday sunny. Ridiculous that we are having these problems given the synoptics. Fingers crossed this won't be a forgettable spell!

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Morning all. What a changeable summer this is over here. Heavy rain and sleet now. Flooding reported in the valley. Snow settling at 2000m plus. Temp 7 c at 1000m  and 1.5C in village. This time last year we had 35c widely in Karten Region.

 C

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It's about 17 here at the mo. It's the most comfortable it's been in ages...

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ukmaxtemp.png

Yuk! horrible temps for August, 16C here, only 13 in Wales

I pay no attention to those. It only had it down for 17 to 18°C here, today. It actually got to 20.7°C - it felt warm.

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
19 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Hi do you happen to know the website where it has the UK daily max/mins records for the whole year? meant to look for it a while ago but you have reminded me.

Torro does have a list ,it gives all the warmest days but the list I saw for coldest did not give summer months,i got this info off another site but I had  a good idea what the values were .

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