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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
36 minutes ago, cheese said:

As long as the rest of August remains warm then I'm not bothered. Only thing I'm concerned about is any temporary plumes being shunted away by cool, unsettled weather. After the brief plume in July, the rest of the month remained warm with temps in the low to mid 20s, so I hope the same happens this time. Definitely don't want a repeat of July last year when the first day was hot and the rest of the month was crap.

Unfortunately, for you, I think that is exactly what will happen..... brief plume, then back to a W,NW air flow:)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
18 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Unfortunately, for you, I think that is exactly what will happen..... brief plume, then back to a W,NW air flow:)

Would be unfortunate for most as well, considering August is the traditional holiday month. Warm weather is needed now more than ever.

W or SW winds would be fine, typical for the time of year really. 

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
26 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Unfortunately, for you, I think that is exactly what will happen..... brief plume, then back to a W,NW air flow:)

That'd be so very dreary and boring, NW winds are very unwelcome in August. We get enough chilly gloom to last a lifetime, sun and warmth is much needed at this time of the year.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
9 minutes ago, cheese said:

Would be unfortunate for most as well, considering August is the traditional holiday month. Warm weather is needed now more than ever.

W or SW winds would be fine, typical for the time of year really. 

Unfortunate or not, just your average UK August, overall.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
54 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes agree with you, need a warm to hot August to balance out what we had earlier this summer, enough cool Atlantic filth for a while at least, I hope. Would be very nice to get some interesting convection going with the heat too.

It's been said before, but this Summer has not been cool, CET maxima and minima were above average in June and July. August has hitherto been going the same way.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I was just taking a look and the ensembles for Dorset.. you can see the control run matching up with this chart:

Rmgfs2194.gif

2016-08-08.png

21.2°C 850hPa..

However, it doesn't have much in the way of support, the average is at 15.7°C
I wonder if this will water down, or more peturbs will follow the control?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
6 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Unfortunate or not, just your average UK August, overall.

NW winds are not normal in August. They're not normal at any time of year. Most common wind direction in the UK is W and SW regardless of time of year.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
17 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

It's been said before, but this Summer has not been cool, CET maxima and minima were above average in June and July. August has hitherto been going the same way.

The CET only tells half the story though, doesn't it? Warmer nights due to the masses of cloud cover skewing figures, perhaps? June certainly didn't feel warm here. July was pretty average. August looks much better, for the first time in years.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
18 minutes ago, cheese said:

NW winds are not normal in August. They're not normal at any time of year. Most common wind direction in the UK is W and SW regardless of time of year.

Hmm, not sure about that. Just because W / SW is the most common direction, it doesn't make NW (or any other direction for that matter) abnormal. It just makes it less common. 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

The CET only tells half the story though, doesn't it? Warmer nights due to the masses of cloud cover skewing figures, perhaps? June certainly didn't feel warm here. July was pretty average. August looks much better, for the first time in years.

The stats speak for themselves:

CET Min: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_min.html

CET Max: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

Both appreciably above average, ergo a warm Summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
3 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

The stats speak for themselves:

CET Min: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_min.html

CET Max: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

Both appreciably above average, ergo a warm Summer.

Both links show minimum CET figures? 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
16 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

The stats speak for themselves:

CET Min: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_min.html

CET Max: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

Both appreciably above average, ergo a warm Summer.

Very wet and cloudy for much of England makes warmer than average temperatures meaningless though. Not many people away from the NW or Scotland would say June was a good month.

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Posted
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.

It depends, if you simply must have lot of sunshine to enjoy the outside then June was bad, if you're like me and don't really care as long as it's around 20C then it was a solid month. Wet yes but if not for one very wet thunderstorm the rainfall would have been average too. 

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Posted
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Proper Seasons,lots of frost and snow October to April, hot summers!
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria

It is encouraging to look at the surface pressure charts forecast for the North Atlantic \Europe over coming days:

http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-t120-t384.htm

We could be seeing a good deal of hot sunny weather (particularly over England and Wales) over the next fortnight. Scotland is likely to remain changeable but even here it could be warm at times. The North South divide will remain (as per my Summer 2016 forecast) but I for one am happy that this divide is a bit further north and that the North Atlantic flow looks like it could be quite weak if the surface pressure charts are to be believed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, having digested reams of garbage about the 2016 summer, which looks like averaging quite near the average, I am at a loss...Why has this summer been so awful?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
18 minutes ago, March said:

It depends, if you simply must have lot of sunshine to enjoy the outside then June was bad, if you're like me and don't really care as long as it's around 20C then it was a solid month. Wet yes but if not for one very wet thunderstorm the rainfall would have been average too. 

We didn't have any thunderstorms and it was still wetter than average. June definitely the stinker of summer 2016. Record dullness for many stations.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, having digested reams of garbage about the 2016 summer, which looks like averaging quite near the average, I am at a loss...Why has this summer been so awful?

Awful for who?

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Posted
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Proper Seasons,lots of frost and snow October to April, hot summers!
  • Location: Alston, Cumbria

Just had a new look at sea surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and it looks very much like the cold patch in the North Atlantic west of Britain has (largely) warmed out whilst sea-surface temperatures in the NW Atlantic and Greenland \Norwegian Seas are some 3 to 5C warmer than usual for early August. Such a pattern of sea-surface temperatures would carry sub-arctic storm tracks well north of their normal path and encourage high-pressure just west of Britain. 

The situation is a little complicated by the prognosis for hurricane and typhoon activity in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific respectively. Sea surface temperatures off West Africa are below normal over an extensive area and there are patches of relatively cool water in the tropical Pacific north of the Equator. This may well dampen tropical storm activity ; frequent hurricanes are correlated with stronger Westerlies in higher latitudes so their relative absence may portend a good deal of dry and fine weather this month and going into September.  We shall certainly see.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
52 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Both links show minimum CET figures? 

Odd, the addresses are different.

Hopefully this should show max figures.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

 

In response to Cheese (can't quote for some reason), June may not have been "good" in the opinions of many, but my point is that Summer 2016 as a whole, including June, hasn't been cool. Cloudy yes, but still warm.

Edited by Relativistic
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, having digested reams of garbage about the 2016 summer, which looks like averaging quite near the average, I am at a loss...Why has this summer been so awful?

Simple: Unrealistic expectations and rose tinted specs when remembering summers gone by.

Anyway, the pub run really backtracks on the 12z, only really one day I would call hot before a cold front sweeps through on Wednesday. I'm certainly not as despondent as I was earlier.

Edited by Nick L
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, having digested reams of garbage about the 2016 summer, which looks like averaging quite near the average, I am at a loss...Why has this summer been so awful?

Because looking at temperatures alone to determine whether a summer was good or not is completely ridiculous? I'd expect better from a weather forum.

Like I said above, June 2016 was the dullest on record for many stations in England, and very wet to boot, so people are perfectly entitled to complain. July was also a duller than average month for some locations, so if you happen to live in one of those places you're going to be disgruntled. Stands to reason I'd say.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
3 hours ago, Nick L said:

Simple: Unrealistic expectations and rose tinted specs when remembering summers gone by.

Anyway, the pub run really backtracks on the 12z, only really one day I would call hot before a cold front sweeps through on Wednesday. I'm certainly not as despondent as I was earlier.

Interesting opinion. But with respect, I'm 20 years older than you and I do remember actual seasons...decent summers (and winters)...epic thunderstorms etc and not just the mainly bland perma-Autumn of the last decade.

The pub run looks pretty good to my eyes, loads of lovely high pressure and nice temps?

Edited by stainesbloke
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

Suspect those max temps may have been overcooked on earlier output,looking increasing like a short lived spell,prob maxing out about 25-26c in northern areas,nothing wrong with that!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

looks like a repeat of this July,  Mon to Wed 18th to 20th, tues was peak of the heat, where as Wed, the Atlantic broke through but still warm at 25C, then much cooler Thurs

also June 29th to July 1st '15, Mon to Wed, peak of the heat, at least in the west was Tues 30th, maybe 1st for the east, much cooler Thurs 2nd, both plumes broke down here at least with a whimper

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
4 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Interesting opinion. But with respect, I'm 20 years older than you and I do remember actual seasons...decent summers (and winters)...epic thunderstorms etc and not just the mainly bland perma-Autumn of the last decade.

The pub run looks pretty good to my eyes, loads of lovely high pressure and nice temps?

Depends when you grew up..if you grew up and memories kick in from the late 80s onwards then summers of your childhood and teens were indeed very good...if you grew up in the 1970s then summers of the 70s and 80s were mostly much worse than those of today..75,76,83 being the exception..if you born before that good summers were even more scarce.

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