Summer 2016

[Nouska]

A look at the JJA Z500 anomalies for the climate segments mentioned by Reef show a very stark contrast.

'95-'06  '07-'15 

The first image suggests an easterly drift with cloudier mornings giving way to sunny afternoons and probably a good deal more sunshine than that in the west.

The recent chart for 2007 to 2015 shows an anomalous cold upper airmass which will be very cloudy during the daytime due to convective infill. You probably get temperatures that are not hugely different but what people see with their eyes will be enormously different.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

23 minutes ago, Nouska said:

A look at the JJA Z500 anomalies for the climate segments mentioned by Reef show a very stark contrast.

'95-'06  '07-'15 

The first image suggests an easterly drift with cloudier mornings giving way to sunny afternoons and probably a good deal more sunshine than that in the west.

The recent chart for 2007 to 2015 shows an anomalous cold upper airmass which will be very cloudy during the daytime due to convective infill. You probably get temperatures that are not hugely different but what people see with their eyes will be enormously different.

Would that anomaly be linked with our "cold blob" in the nearby North Atlantic?

[Nouska]

33 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Would that anomaly be linked with our "cold blob" in the nearby North Atlantic?

No, as the height anomaly has been present prior to development.  The recent anomalous north westerlies will be reinforcing the colder ssts in that they delay/prevent normal summer warming out.

[cheese]

4 hours ago, reef said:

Yes and its often the case in here that people are comparing to the 1989-2006 period which was highly unusual for the number of warm Augusts and above average summers on the whole. As for August, from 1994-2004 every single one was above average!

I wonder what the reaction would be if people were able to comment on forums like this in the 60s? The nine summers from 1960-1968 were all below the 30 year average and out of 9 Julys and 9 Augusts in those summers, just July 1967 was above average. In fact, the warmest August was 15.7C in that period and there was only 8 months above 15.2C out of the 27! Compare that to the 1932-50 period previous which had 17 out of 19 above average summers!

Its basically nothing unusual in the UK. We have periods of better summers and periods of worse ones.

Thing is reef, the UK and Ireland in particular seem to have been particularly affected by a run of poor summers in recent years. Go to other places in Europe and nearly every single summer since 2000 has been warmer than average. Our summers were supposed to get warmer, but they have barely changed at all over the past 20 years. Meanwhile, nearly all of the rest of the world has seen summer warming more significantly than we have. In some places in the world a below average summer has basically become nonexistent. 

It's just annoying to see nearly everywhere else in the world getting warmer than average summers while this small area of the world suffers. 10 years ago we thought summers like 2006 and 2003 would become more frequent - but apparently not so. Like last summer - Germany had one of its hottest summers ever, France was very warm too. The warmth pretty much just stopped at the Channel. 

The 1989-2006 period was supposed to be our new normal - we heard nonsense like parrots in British gardens. 

Edited August 3, 2016 by cheese

[cheeky_monkey]

37 minutes ago, cheese said:

Thing is reef, the UK and Ireland in particular seem to have been particularly affected by a run of poor summers in recent years. Go to other places in Europe and nearly every single summer since 2000 has been warmer than average. Our summers were supposed to get warmer, but they have barely changed at all over the past 20 years. Meanwhile, nearly all of the rest of the world has seen summer warming more significantly than we have. In some places in the world a below average summer has basically become nonexistent. 

It's just annoying to see nearly everywhere else in the world getting warmer than average summers while this small area of the world suffers. 10 years ago we thought summers like 2006 and 2003 would become more frequent - but apparently not so. Like last summer - Germany had one of its hottest summers ever, France was very warm too. The warmth pretty much just stopped at the Channel. 

The 1989-2006 period was supposed to be our new normal - we heard nonsense like parrots in British gardens. 

Maybe because our summers warmed significantly in the period 1989-2006..others areas are now experience our warming but in the period post 2006 that maybe they did not occur when our summers warmed...swings and roundabouts really.

[cheese]

8 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Maybe because our summers warmed significantly in the period 1989-2006..others areas are now experience our warming but in the period post 2006 that maybe they did not occur when our summers warmed...swings and roundabouts really.

No, other areas were warming then as well. Unlike the UK though, they have continued to warm. 

Edited August 3, 2016 by cheese

[Carl46Wrexham]

Distinctly autumnal feel to the day given the strength of the wind. Aberdaron in NW Wales has had a recent 52 mph gust - Severe Gale Force 9.

[Evening thunder]

2 hours ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Well, my take on today's conditions are as expressed in my post on the North West Regional thread:

"What I thought was going to become another cloudfest turned out to be half-decent with long sunny intervals.  However come lunchtime the wind got up and currently blowing an F7 gale - the trees themselves here are in motion with the trunks moving slightly. Despite the wind, I didn't notice any windchill when sunbathing topless.  Liverpool ATIS reports 19C with a DP of 12C so the air isn't particularly humid."

Notably stormy for August with that autumnal low crossing Scotland.

Glad it's not been too bad or at least as bad as expected up your way today  

And thanks for some interesting maps Nouska.
Of course I don't disagree with more infill than during 1995-2006, I just doubt this is a new phenomena that didn't happen in some previous poorer summers.

Edited August 3, 2016 by Evening thunder

[Mapantz]

There won't be a wind chill, because it only comes in to play at temperatures 10°C or below.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

22 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Distinctly autumnal feel to the day given the strength of the wind. Aberdaron in NW Wales has had a recent 52 mph gust - Severe Gale Force 9.

autumnal synoptics definitely, last few days and over next week, but still feels mild, which is good, I want it mild now, August does tend to produce autumnal synoptics, but still feels more like summer

[Wildswimmer Pete]

51 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Glad it's not been too bad or at least as bad as expected up your way today  

And thanks for some interesting maps Nouska.
Of course I don't disagree with more infill than during 1995-2006, I just doubt this is a new phenomena that didn't happen in some previous poorer summers.

Our summers are far more cloudier that previous, with the now semi-permanent infill between 8am-8pm.  Check my reply to your post in the Model thread.  Summers during the mid-1980s were showery and sometimes wet due to similar procession of lows, however the skies cleared after the low passed giving a day or so of fine weather before the arrival of the next one.  Nowadays there's no clearance, the overcast persists.

[Mapantz]

8 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Our summers are far more cloudier that previous, with the now semi-permanent infill between 8am-8pm.  Check my reply to your post in the Model thread.  Summers during the mid-1980s were showery and sometimes wet due to similar procession of lows, however the skies cleared after the low passed giving a day or so of fine weather before the arrival of the next one.  Nowadays there's no clearance, the overcast persists.

That might be the case where you are, but it isn't the same for everywhere. Today has brought blue skies here, from the early morning. Tomorrow looks like being a good day with plenty of sunshine for many, as does Friday.

[Frosty.]

I have just read the latest met office update and its depressing. After an increasingly warm and humid weekend in the south, temps are expected to be below average until September 1st..that would suggest that summer is over but it's not that simple is it?

[Dangerous55019]

4 hours ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Well, my take on today's conditions are as expressed in my post on the North West Regional thread:

"What I thought was going to become another cloudfest turned out to be half-decent with long sunny intervals.  However come lunchtime the wind got up and currently blowing an F7 gale - the trees themselves here are in motion with the trunks moving slightly. Despite the wind, I didn't notice any windchill when sunbathing topless.  Liverpool ATIS reports 19C with a DP of 12C so the air isn't particularly humid."

Notably stormy for August with that autumnal low crossing Scotland.

Evening Pete 
Like you, I've found today to be a pretty half decent sort of day, granted its been 'blustery' but at least it got rid of that horrendous grey gloom and the sun was out for pretty decent periods 
In all fairness, if the whole of the summer had have been like this (with possibly a few more Spanish Plume events) the I probably wouldn't have moaned 

[markyo]

29 minutes ago, Karl. said:

I have just read the latest met office update and its depressing. After an increasingly warm and humid weekend in the south, temps are expected to be below average until September 1st..that would suggest that summer is over but it's not that simple is it?

For me that is uplifting news,summer over,if only.....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

That might be the case where you are, but it isn't the same for everywhere. Today has brought blue skies here, from the early morning. Tomorrow looks like being a good day with plenty of sunshine for many, as does Friday.

not here, just for the S/SE, struggle with cloud here from westerlies

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Can't believe it. Looks like a rare arctic blast on the way in high summer! Could see some record low minima in the coming week or so! 

[hillbilly]

It is likely we have had similar periods in history but not in my lifetime ,since the late 60s anyway,i do not call that normal as some here do ,not normal to this 50 years.Statistica do not always show how a summer feels.An average summer in my lifetime ,a real generalisation is probably a week of nice warm sunny weather in most of the extended summer months,obviously not in a poor year and up to almost the whole of that time in exceptionally good ones as 1976 and 1995.I was brought up on a farm and without these periods we could not make hay.Almost all my life with odd exceptions these odd cluster of days or weeks is when hay was made particularly the period end of june to early August,this period just does not deliver such weather like it did previous to 2007 certainly going back to my early memories in the early 70's,i am going to question my uncle who can hopefully remember times from the end of the war.I do not know how farmers would have gone on in times gone by when it was all done by hand had they had weather like we get these days .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

13 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Can't believe it. Looks like a rare arctic blast on the way in high summer! Could see some record low minima in the coming week or so! 

dreading it, yes records to be broken, post 2000, it's always the ones the majority me included don't want to see, most likely at least some sort of warm temp record broken Dec to Feb

and feels likely a lot of minimums Dec to Feb will be warmer than the minimums next week

[Wildswimmer Pete]

3 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Evening Pete 
Like you, I've found today to be a pretty half decent sort of day, granted its been 'blustery' but at least it got rid of that horrendous grey gloom and the sun was out for pretty decent periods 
In all fairness, if the whole of the summer had have been like this (with possibly a few more Spanish Plume events) the I probably wouldn't have moaned 

Looks like I'll be camping over the weekend not too far from you (St. Asaph) so hopefully that 23C forecast actually materialises. We've got planned swims in a lake (don't know which) and the sea (the latter I suspect at Abergele).

[MP-R]

Just a reminder of the types of charts we should be seeing at this time of year...

    

NOT northerlies!

[cheese]

August 2009, 2012 and 2013 were all decent. August 2015 was decent up here as well. 

[weatherguru14]

I will repeat again.. why did the bbc say  on  a outlook 2 days back..we are all pretty certain by the middle of august we will be under a southerly flow and summer is not quite done yet..

why say something that is not true.. They are all certain! TS LIKE YES ITS GOING TO HAPPEN... Sorry  to repeat it again.. Its just basic lying to the pubic.

[Cheshire Freeze]

43 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

I will repeat again.. why did the bbc say  on  a outlook 2 days back..we are all pretty certain by the middle of august we will be under a southerly flow and summer is not quite done yet..

why say something that is not true.. They are all certain! TS LIKE YES ITS GOING TO HAPPEN... Sorry  to repeat it again.. Its just basic lying to the pubic.

I will admit, when I watched the forecast I facepalmed a little. I have no idea why they had to mention it at all....especially as, at the time, they were talking about something 15 days ahead when it's only a 7-10 day forecast at the very most!

It is situations like that which leave them wide open for criticism.

[Dangerous55019]

9 hours ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Looks like I'll be camping over the weekend not too far from you (St. Asaph) so hopefully that 23C forecast actually materialises. We've got planned swims in a lake (don't know which) and the sea (the latter I suspect at Abergele).

Fingers crossed that it'll be a good weekend for you Pete