Summer 2016

[Wildswimmer Pete]

17 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

Fair enough, so it's a more local phenomena than nationwide (although the Mid-Cheshire ridge isn't new so presumably in similar wind directions/synoptics in the past the same would have happened).

The problem is down to the change of direction of the prevailing wind.  Up to recently the prevailing direction of the wind was SW where orthographic lifting isn't so much of a feature, in fact my area was in the lee.  However the prevailing direction is now NWN when the wind encounters the three escarpments at the end of the Mid-Cheshire Ridge (Runcorn Hill, Frodsham Hill, Helsby Hill) with very rapid lifting.  Many times from a sunny New Brighton I've looked back down the Mersey to see the cloud forming over Frodsham, Helsby and Runcorn - just 12 miles as the crow flies.

Edited July 29, 2016 by Wildswimmer Pete
Grammar and typo

[hillbilly]

3 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

This is  a normal summer...This is the weather we get..our climate is very  atlantic based..Of course  we would like it to be settled for couple of months  in the summer part of the year.. Its not like that some years!

I have to disagree with you there guru,in my lifetime for the last 48 years we have had on average 3 'Very good' summers per decade so certainly this summer so far is bordering on poor but it is not 'normal' to have so many poor summers in comparison to the last half century.I can just about say that we have had more poor summers in the last decade than in the previous 40 years.We have to go back to the 60s decade to see anything in comparison as there were no very good summers in that decade but I do not know wether the summers on average were not so bad back then discounting the poor ones .

[stainesbloke]

Taking summer as a whole aside, we are certainly due an above average August based on sunshine amounts alone. Ten years of below average Augusts in that regard here. If this one follows suit it'll feel much worse due to the dull summer so far. Nothing in the models at the moment to indicate anything particularly sunny or very warm.

[weather09]

Certainly, since 2007, summers from a convective storm perspective have been noticeably poor. Those hot, moist 'plume' setups have become more of a rarity over the last several years.  Can only speak for this region, but I'd imagine folks in southern and south-eastern UK would agree.  Also recall official Met Office statistics backing this up with their record of days with thunder.  

But even in the more active years, such as the early part of this summer, the storm setups have generally not been from hot air coming off the continent, instead they've arisen in cool, post-front environments, with surface heating and cool air advection in the mid-levels producing instability. These setups bring weaker storms than those the develop in environments of very warm and moist low-levels.  

So far, aside from the active period in the first part of June, this summer has been noticeably quiet.  

Edited July 29, 2016 by weather09

[B87]

24 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Certainly, since 2007, summers from a convective storm perspective have been noticeably poor. Those hot, moist 'plume' setups have become more of a rarity over the last several years.  Can only speak for this region, but I'd imagine folks in southern and south-eastern UK would agree.  Also recall official Met Office statistics backing this up with their record of days with thunder.  

But even in the more active years, such as the early part of this summer, the storm setups have generally not been from hot air coming off the continent, instead they've arisen in cool, post-front environments, with surface heating and cool air advection in the mid-levels producing instability. These setups bring weaker storms than those the develop in environments of very warm and moist low-levels.  

So far, aside from the active period in the first part of June, this summer has been noticeably quiet.  

There was a spell of hardly any thunderstorms between 2007-2012, though they have started becoming more common again.  In 2009-2011 we had less than 5 per year, when we normally get about 15 or so.

[stainesbloke]

33 minutes ago, B87 said:

There was a spell of hardly any thunderstorms between 2007-2012, though they have started becoming more common again.  In 2009-2011 we had less than 5 per year, when we normally get about 15 or so.

I don't think it's a coincidence that decent thundery episodes have declined dramatically since 2006 along with heatwaves and plume synoptics. I remember plumes lasting a good 3+ days with hot sunshine followed by big storms. Now the jet blasts everything eastwards before it can develop. Dreary.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

I've mentioned in past posts that we may be entering a Grand Minimum which is contributing to our recent deteriorating summers.  However the current chill and persistent overcast are borne on WNW or NW winds, replacing our usual SW prevailing wind.  If I remember correctly past Grand Minima (Maunder, Dalton) ushered in prevailing Easterlies?

[cheese]

3 hours ago, B87 said:

There was a spell of hardly any thunderstorms between 2007-2012, though they have started becoming more common again.  In 2009-2011 we had less than 5 per year, when we normally get about 15 or so.

15 thunder days, that is - the actual number of days with overheard thunderstorms is likely to be lower.

[Summer Sun]

Rainfall is well below the July average in some parts of the south and south-west

Edited July 29, 2016 by Summer Sun

[B87]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Rainfall is well below the seasonal average in some parts of the south and south-west

We had over 200% of our average rainfall in June. Even with the dry July, the grass has only just started to turn brown.

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, B87 said:

We had over 200% of our average rainfall in June. Even with the dry July, the grass has only just started to turn brown.

We had pretty much bang on average rainfall here in June, and July has been very dry so as a result the grass is very brown where it hasn't been watered.

[B87]

12 minutes ago, Nick L said:

We had pretty much bang on average rainfall here in June, and July has been very dry so as a result the grass is very brown where it hasn't been watered.

Normally it would go yellow in June and be brown from early July until late August, then green up again in September. This must be the latest it's taken to go yellow/brown  (apart from 2012, when it didn't happen til late August/September)!

[markyo]

Really liking the outputs at the moment,very very selfish i know but the lack of prolonged heat is welcome. Many i know will disagree,for them i do feel sorry. But i must say anybody working in my industry welcomes the cooler weather and that is a fact. Ambient temps can make a huge difference to your working conditions.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

On 27/07/2016 at 19:18, markyo said:

Just a question,i may be missing something (which i more than likely am!) you say 62 and 63 where awful and meh..you were only 12 and 13 then over those 2 years and then you remember a summer when you were 22yr old. You must have a incredible memory,there is no way i could recount such details with any accuracy. Myself i really struggle to remember being 22yr old let alone the weather!

I was a teenager through the 1960s, furthermore a stroke in 2011 trashed my short- and mid term memory however my long-term memory became even more keen.  I've always observed the weather since my kidhood during the 1950s and I associate memorable "landmarks" during those two decades with the weather at the time. I have a very strong recollection of the 1950s, '60s and '70s.  The '80s not so much, the '90s, Noughties and '10s, very little. 

[stainesbloke]

24 minutes ago, markyo said:

Really liking the outputs at the moment,very very selfish i know but the lack of prolonged heat is welcome. Many i know will disagree,for them i do feel sorry. But i must say anybody working in my industry welcomes the cooler weather and that is a fact. Ambient temps can make a huge difference to your working conditions.

I certainly disagree. The GFS run is an absolute horror show for next week, not one but two deep lows blasting us and parts of Europe with gales and rain. Abysmal for this point of the year, I doubt even you will find it pleasant!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

On 14/06/2016 at 12:39, cheese said:

 

What's interesting is the fact we haven't had any particularly sunny and hot Summer months this decade so far and we have to go back to July 2006 for the most recent one. Of course we can't for sure write off August just yet despite the poor outlook, and there's still Summer's 2017, 2018 and 2019 to change things. But what would be interesting (though it's only hypothetical for now) is if next month as well as the next 3 Summer's fail to produce any particularly sunny and hot months it would make the 2010's the first decade since the 1960's to not do so. Not that I want this to happen mind, but it would be interesting nonetheless. Though in all honestly I think the law of averages alone should give us a decent Summer before this decade's out. Even if not surely the 2020's should provide one.

[markyo]

1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

I certainly disagree. The GFS run is an absolute horror show for next week, not one but two deep lows blasting us and parts of Europe with gales and rain. Abysmal for this point of the year, I doubt even you will find it pleasant!

Erm.....wouldn't find it to bad,for me the colder and wetter the better,sounds really odd i know!! I'm not totally crackers it's just with the work i do the conditions do make you feel unwell at times. Need that cooler air to recover sometimes.Totally agree very much though at a weekend this output is awful! Fingers crossed we'll get a break this August at something better will come along. 

[markyo]

17 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

I was a teenager through the 1960s, furthermore a stroke in 2011 trashed my short- and mid term memory however my long-term memory became even more keen.  I've always observed the weather since my kidhood during the 1950s and I associate memorable "landmarks" during those two decades with the weather at the time. I have a very strong recollection of the 1950s, '60s and '70s.  The '80s not so much, the '90s, Noughties and '10s, very little. 

Very sorry,never a ment to cause a offence in any way,you are so lucky in to have such a good recollection of that time,many including myself should listen,we could learn a lot!, 

[Wildswimmer Pete]

18 minutes ago, markyo said:

Very sorry,never a ment to cause a offence in any way,you are so lucky in to have such a good recollection of that time,many including myself should listen,we could learn a lot!, 

You didn't say anything to offend me!  I can appear snappy but sadly that can happen through the typed word particularly as I don't usually use emoji.  I like the fact that my recollection of  weather past is is appreciated, although, yes, some (not all!) of it can be seen through a pair of rose-tinted glasses!

[Matthew.]

42 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

I certainly disagree. The GFS run is an absolute horror show for next week, not one but two deep lows blasting us and parts of Europe with gales and rain. Abysmal for this point of the year, I doubt even you will find it pleasant!

In september the dreaded position of this summers Azores high will weaken and split towards the Uk as the siberian high strengthens through autumn. Hopefully then we may get some settled weather. Too little too late for some i know but still will be very pleasant.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

4 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

In september the dreaded position of this summers Azores high will weaken and split towards the Uk as the siberian high strengthens through autumn. Hopefully then we may get some settled weather. Too little too late for some i know but still will be very pleasant.

Exactly as happened after the miserable summer of 1963, a gorgeous warm September that began on the Monday I went back to school - cloudless blue skies. That last weekend of the school holidays was absolutely vile, cold, heavy rain and windy.  '63 was a "golden Autumn" mild enough for PT just wearing shorts outdoors on our playing fields.

[cheese]

The model output makes me want to cry.. I am going to hurt myself. I AM GOING TO KILL MYSELF.

Nah, the weather doesn't bother me that much - but it's pretty disheartening. An average month would be okay - but we will probably struggle to get that. 

Only good news is that the UK isn't alone in suffering. 

Edited July 29, 2016 by cheese

[Nick L]

Another one here who is relieved at the output, looking possible we will get through the summer without a prolonged spell of unnecessary heat.

[B87]

August looks like an absolute horror show. It hasn't even started yet but I can comfortably say it'll be yet another cooler and duller than average month.

[cheese]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Another one here who is relieved at the output, looking possible we will get through the summer without a prolonged spell of unnecessary heat.

It's one thing not to want heat, but to want unrelenting low pressure and frontal systems? That's not very good for anyone.