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Posted
  • Location: Bristol/South East
  • Location: Bristol/South East
On 23 May 2016 at 21:42, Summer Sun said:

The weather company formally WSI have issued their 3 monthly outlook which covers summer

http://business.weather.com/news/the-weather-company-cool-summer-across-uk-and-western-mainland-europe

I posted this earlier but around this time in 2013 WSI also suggested the summer for the UK would be 'cooler than normal' and in 2012 it said it would be 'warmer than normal.' Also it was predicting this past winter to be cooler than normal for the UK. When as we all know it was the opposite.

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Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
5 minutes ago, cheese said:

A summer like 2003 would be good. All three months warmer than average, June and August sunnier than average with July average.

That was the last time all 3 summer months were above average here. It was also the last time all 3 summer months had average or above average sunshine. Since August 2006, only 4 out of 28 summer months managed to make it to the average sun hours! 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

I think 2003 was one of the few summers where all 3 months were above average. Even in 1995 that wasn't the case.

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Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
13 minutes ago, cheese said:

I think 2003 was one of the few summers where all 3 months were above average. Even in 1995 that wasn't the case.

Before 2003, you have to go back to 1989.

Other summers include:

1984 (just)

1976

1975

1959

1949

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
31 minutes ago, B87 said:

That was the last time all 3 summer months were above average here. It was also the last time all 3 summer months had average or above average sunshine. Since August 2006, only 4 out of 28 summer months managed to make it to the average sun hours! 

Just a quick question, is that based on Heathrow sunshine stats vs. the long-term average?  Heathrow Airport uses a Kipp-Zonen sunshine sensor (it has done since 2005) and the long-term averages are calculated from Campbell-Stokes recorders which typically record 10-15% more sunshine in the summer months.  If this is the case then it's probably not quite as bad as that, although there has certainly been a progressive shift towards cloudier and wetter summers since the 1990s.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
11 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Just a quick question, is that based on Heathrow sunshine stats vs. the long-term average?  Heathrow Airport uses a Kipp-Zonen sunshine sensor (it has done since 2005) and the long-term averages are calculated from Campbell-Stokes recorders which typically record 10-15% more sunshine in the summer months.  If this is the case then it's probably not quite as bad as that, although there has certainly been a progressive shift towards cloudier and wetter summers since the 1990s.

Yes, this point has been mentioned before, sunshine hours have been adjusted down because the recorders are different. Seems silly to me. We could be getting 15% more sunshine in summer than we think we do (I'm not sure if all sunshine recorders at all stations use the Kipp-Zonen sensor but I'm assuming they do otherwise it'd be a horrible inconsistent mess).

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Hounslow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Csa/Csb
  • Location: Hounslow, London
14 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Just a quick question, is that based on Heathrow sunshine stats vs. the long-term average?  Heathrow Airport uses a Kipp-Zonen sunshine sensor (it has done since 2005) and the long-term averages are calculated from Campbell-Stokes recorders which typically record 10-15% more sunshine in the summer months.  If this is the case then it's probably not quite as bad as that, although there has certainly been a progressive shift towards cloudier and wetter summers since the 1990s.

Yes it is, though I believe the opposite is actually the case.  The CS recorder (at Kew) has a burn threshold of about 140W/m2, compared with the KZ which is programmed to record anything above 120W/m2.  This can be seen in months such as July 2006, Feb 2008 or July 2013, where the 'raw' data was published on the Met Office historic data page, and was then altered to maintain data integrity with the rest of the record.  This has been a major topic of contention on another forum.

July 2006 was originally published with ~302 hours (still visible when you look at the sunshine graph for Heathrow on the regional climates page), and then 'downgraded' to 268 or so (same with July 2013). Feb 2008 originally recorded 138 hours and was changed to 130 hours.

This works the other way; the June 2012 horror show is on the climate graph at around 130 hrs or so (recorded with the KZ), though on the historic data page it shows 118.5 hrs.

I wonder how sunny May 1989 would have been, had the KZ recorder been in use at the time? Possibly as high as 350-360 hours vs the 310 actually recorded?

Edited by B87
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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

When going by the 61-90 average CET there has been at least 1 +5c Summer season each decade since the 1970's:    

1975- +5.0(#12)

1976- +7.5(#1)

1983- +5.7(#6)

1995- +6.3(#3)

2003- +6.2(#4)

2006- +5.9(#5)

Im sure this decade won't let us down and notice how all these years happened between 3-6. I strongly think This Summer is a great hope:)

 

Edited by Matthew Wilson
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

I did enjoy the summers of the mid 90s to mid 00s. More of the same would be nice. 

What's #2 summer, btw?

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

I wouldn't want August 2003, that's just a bit too hot! But, yes a warm and very thundery Summer (in this area) would be nice, but that seems to be too much to ask. LOL.

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
1 hour ago, cheese said:

I did enjoy the summers of the mid 90s to mid 00s. More of the same would be nice. 

What's #2 summer, btw?

1826(#2) here is a quote from that year 'Never, perhaps, was rain more Universally welcolmed by all ranks of people...in the shape of pestilence and famine'

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

There seems to be a lot of optimism in the model thread at the moment which somewhat pleases me (i generally prefer a anti-cyclonic May-July period) however i'm not as convinced as some people. My main concern is the persistance of heights over the pole which means that the main thing saving us now is really the stronger sub-tropical jet stream in the Pacific which is allowing for a weaker Atlantic jet stream. 

My concern is that in the long run we either are going to see a more typical Pacific pattern which will inject more energy into the Altnatic and with heights over the pole this has the potential to produce a horror show or alternatively our hopes for summer essentially rest on finally losing those heights to prevent retrogression and allow a more northerly tracking Atlantic. 

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Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

I had plans for bank holiday monday..yesterday the weather was looking pretty good for that day.. But whammmmm a  low appeared pushing in from east on  the weather map this morning from nowhere and now monday looks unsettled...is it to much to get a forecast correct for 3/4 days ahead anymore?? no doubt Monday will be nice again laters.. thats in the space of  3 hours. only for  Sunday evening for it to be reveresed again.

I hate this time of year you get fed to much BS.. :D.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
52 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

I had plans for bank holiday monday..yesterday the weather was looking pretty good for that day.. But whammmmm a  low appeared pushing in from east on  the weather map this morning from nowhere and now monday looks unsettled...is it to much to get a forecast correct for 3/4 days ahead anymore?? no doubt Monday will be nice again laters.. thats in the space of  3 hours. only for  Sunday evening for it to be reveresed again.

I hate this time of year you get fed to much BS.. :D.

That low was showing on the 12z runs yesterday wg.See the Model discussion thread.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

yes, been following washout Whit monday since last Sunday, shown since then, and hardly changed, will be a washout, timed right for the day, bbc not on board yet but will be soon

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Yes im starting to get doubts now about the first week or so of june, you dont see a single greenland high in winter (for the second year on the trot), then low and behold, spring summer ends up being dominated by the bloody things, gawd i hate this countrys climate

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

The current pattern is quite common at this time of the year. Some of the best summers started off with a Greenland high or Atlantic ridge giving a cool start to the month with northerly winds. Its what happens after that and how willing high pressure is to move east which often determines the summer pattern, along with the strength of the Atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
5 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

Just viewed the bbc  weekly outllook this evening they seem unable to get a handle on nextweeks weather.. yet the weatherman can throw in the line nothing particually hot.ohhh ok :closedeyes::D

Like I said in the MOD thread the fact this low is coming in from the east is very unusual and causing the models a lot of problems

Yesterday the rain was missing most parts on Monday

Today the east is set for a wet day

Tomorrow? anyone's guess

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Like I said in the MOD thread the fact this low is coming in from the east is very unusual and causing the models a lot of problems

Yesterday the rain was missing most parts

Today the east is set for a wet day

Tomorrow? anyone's guess

I don't really see why a retrograde pattern(?) should be all that problematic - all the underlying laws of physics will remain the same? That's not to say it isn't interesting.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Speaking of very sunny summer months, nobody seems to have mentioned July 2013, which was exceptionally sunny in many areas. It was a stunning month here for its amazing consistency- there were so few cool days and it was commonly 26-28C on a large number of the days.

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Speaking of very sunny summer months, nobody seems to have mentioned July 2013, which was exceptionally sunny in many areas. It was a stunning month here for its amazing consistency- there were so few cool days and it was commonly 26-28C on a large number of the days.

Aye and since 2013 hot spells have been short lived in comparison - then again it was only 3 years ago. Can't expect a heatwave like that every Summer in the North-West! ..........It takes a lot to heat this cold house surrounded by fields but that July was certainly up to that job. It rarely gets into the 20's here indoors without the heating on but that July it was 25C if I recall on one day. I think before 2013 the last time it was as warm as that in here was July 2006.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
11 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Speaking of very sunny summer months, nobody seems to have mentioned July 2013, which was exceptionally sunny in many areas. It was a stunning month here for its amazing consistency- there were so few cool days and it was commonly 26-28C on a large number of the days.

Yes, cracking month. Every day was above 20C, consistently in the upper 20s, the grass became very parched. We had under 10mm until the final part of the month when we got torrential downpours and thunderstorms (n o complaints from me). July 2014 was a good month too.

August 2013 wasn't too bad either, slightly warmer than average. It's funny that in August 2013 we got thunderstorms on my birthday (22nd) and in August 2015 we also had storms on my birthday. Both days also had a max temp of 26C. Must be a thundery date. 

 

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
8 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yes, cracking month. Every day was above 20C, consistently in the upper 20s, the grass became very parched. We had under 10mm until the final part of the month when we got torrential downpours and thunderstorms (n o complaints from me). July 2014 was a good month too.

August 2013 wasn't too bad either, slightly warmer than average. It's funny that in August 2013 we got thunderstorms on my birthday (22nd) and in August 2015 we also had storms on my birthday. Both days also had a max temp of 26C. Must be a thundery date. 

 

I've noticed that certain periods of the year seem to repeat thundery synoptics - June 28th and May 10th are approximate thundery dates too:

 

June 28th 2012

June 28th 2011

June 25th 2009

June 28th 2005

 

May 09th 2011

May 09th 2008

May 10th 2006

May 10th 2004

May 11th 2001

 

This year we had a thunderstorm on the 07th May so I wonder if late June will also bring some good thundery opportunities. A nice prolonged warm/hot and sunny June with thunderstorms (particularly a la 2005) would be most welcome :D

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