Summer 2016

[wishingforsnow]

21 hours ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

For "transitioning from El Nino into La Nina", which looks likely to happen this summer, we have:

1973- a pretty mixed summer, warmish June and August, cool July, and quite wet in the August, with heatwave in early September

1988- dry June, albeit dull over most of England, then an infamous washout July dominated by westerlies, changeable westerlies continued in August but not as much as in July

1995- cool first half of June which was cloudy in the east, otherwise a memorable hot dry sunny summer, especially late July and August

1998- dull wet June, cool cloudy westerly July, a north-south split in August with dry sunny weather in the south, fairly cloudy in the north

2007- exceptional rainfall in June and July led to flooding, cool but fairly dry and sunny August for most

2010- warm dry sunny June, NW-SE split in July which was very warm in the SE but very dull in the west, August was cool, dull and wet in the south but sunnier in the NW

So a pretty mixed bag really!   In terms of ENSO I think the nearest matches are 1973 and 1998.

I think 1998 was El Nino which had carried on longer than expected - it was the biggest El Nino on record after all!

I feel like 2010 gets a bad rep and is unfairly lumped in with the other poor summers of the late 00s-early 10s. From what I remember, Summer 2010 was probably the best summer out of the 2007-2012 period where most summers were average to poor. I suppose it's often written off as nothing special because of it's lack of sustained UK wide heat and North/South split leading to predominantely unsettled weather in the North. On reflection Summer 2010 was essentially a warmer version of Summer 2015.

I think in 2010 the flip to Nina didn't occur until late summer if I remember right, much like what is predicted for this year. Same with 1995.

Whereas 2007 was a summer occurring during a La Nina dominated atmosphere which began developing in February of that year and became fully formed by the late Spring. The ENSO neutral period occurred in the Spring as February-April 2007 were fairly dry, warmer than average months culminating with the record warm April which served an early taste of summer like conditions, only in early May to be replaced by almost non stop rain and low pressure systems for almost 4 full months - save for the last week in July.

 

Although there is a slightly higher probability for La Nina to begin developing in July (52%), the greater chances for it to start impacting our weather still remains September (71%) with August a close second (65%) according to NOAA. Before that, still a greater chance of an ENSO neutral period falling in May/June/July than there is for La Nina to develop by July. All in all, I think at the moment, August if not September has the highest chance of La Nina to begin impacting our weather even if it begins developing quicker than expected in mid/late Summer. Also suggests it will be weak/moderate so perhaps its impact won't be extremely significant (compared to say, 2007 which was moderate/strong) 

Edited May 19, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[cheese]

Summer of 2010 was alright - June was very nice, July was around average, August was poor. Similar to 2015, except July was the weak link of summer 2015 in northern England while in southern England, August was the poorest month.

Summer 2015 was statistically very average. 

Summer 2009 was okay too in retrospect. August was the best month of that summer.  Some good thunderstorms too which is always a positive IMO! There was a belter of a storm in June that year in Leeds - I think the 15th. Was enough to cause flash flooding, electrical failures etc. 

Edited May 19, 2016 by cheese

[damianslaw]

Thanks for the replys to my question.This year is bearing quite a similarity to 1998 in many respects, which was the last time we had an El Nino of similiar near strength and transition to La Nina early summer. April 98 and 16 many commonalities with the cold arctic blasts, followed by sustained warmth in early-mid May... very similiar, March 98 and 16 quite similiar as well, so to Jan 98 and Jan 16 in some respects with a bit of a cold spell mid month but essentially very mild, Feb 98 was very dry and very mild, Feb 16 not so mild, but did see decent dry conditions on the back of a 3 month very wet spell..

May 98 turned unsettled but stayed relatively warm.. May 16 looking like doing the same..

Mmm Summer 98 was a mixed bag, only shortlived warmer drier spells, and much rain.. can't say I'd be happy with a summer like 98, but it wasn't a complete write off. Autumn 98 though was very seasonal.

[hillbilly]

1998 may not have been as poor as summers like 2008 or 2012 but in these parts it was the worst summer between 1988 and 2007 .That is almost 2 decades with just 2002 being a close runner up.I certainly do not want a summer like 1998 !!

[cheese]

I think it's also worth bearing in mind that the link between La Nina/El Nino and UK weather is not exactly proven.. in fact, there isn't much evidence that either phenomenon have much impact on European weather at all. There are countless other things to consider first.

[wishingforsnow]

Just to add, my further research shows the 1998 La Nina began developing in the Spring so the ENSO neutral period that year must have fallen between February-May so very similar to 2007. La Nina 1983/84 was weak/moderate following a strong El Nino, began developing in the Summer but did not affect the weather until the Autumn. La Nina 2016 though forecasted to start developing slightly earlier, has not started developing yet. And the 98-99 Nina was also a moderate/strong one. La Nina 2016 is currently forecasted to be weak/moderate. If La Nina 2016 begins developing in July chances are it won't begin affecting our weather until late Summer at the earliest.

 

And as stated above the link between El Nino and La Nina is not entirely the sole reason for a good or bad summer in the UK. Though it can have an impact the size of which depending on its strength , it is one of a number of factors  such as the size of the Atlantic cold pool and heights over Greenland (which stopped the UK experiencing sustained periods of hot weather last summer). Also not enough high pressure over Western Europe in 2007 (Eastern Europe, South eastern Europe and Greece got all the heat that year!) to push the jet stream North combined with lack of solar activity. So La Nina or El Nino is not the only decider of a good or bad summer for the UK. Every year is different with meteorological synoptics and though years can have similar patterns surrounding the causes and effects of particular weather in the UK no one year is going to be exactly the same 

Edited May 20, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Gael_Force]

9 hours ago, wishingforsnow said:

Just to add, my further research shows the 1998 La Nina began developing in the Spring so the ENSO neutral period that year must have fallen between February-May so very similar to 2007. La Nina 1983/84 was weak/moderate following a strong El Nino, began developing in the Summer but did not affect the weather until the Autumn. La Nina 2016 though forecasted to start developing slightly earlier, has not started developing yet. And the 98-99 Nina was also a moderate/strong one. La Nina 2016 is currently forecasted to be weak/moderate. If La Nina 2016 begins developing in July chances are it won't begin affecting our weather until late Summer at the earliest.

Based on a positive anomaly the spring period of 1998 was definitely still in Nino phase. The neutral period (black lettering) was very short lived and fully Nina by the june to august period. The PDO was also into negative figures by then so whether the current warm phase changes anything, I've no idea.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

[wishingforsnow]

1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

Based on a positive anomaly the spring period of 1998 was definitely still in Nino phase. The neutral period (black lettering) was very short lived and fully Nina by the june to august period. The PDO was also into negative figures by then so whether the current warm phase changes anything, I've no idea.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Well that has to be one of the shortest ENSO neutral periods between an El Nino and La Nina. The PDO being in negative figures back then could have speeded up the process in transitioning from Nino to Nina in 98'. 

Edited May 20, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[summer blizzard]

The suggestion from the Tropical Tidbits hurricane season outlook is that the Atlantic sea temperature anomaly will strengthen the Azores High which probably suggests a more traditional N/S split with westerlies dominant. 

[cheese]

I'd be fine with an average summer. Conditions in low-level Yorkshire are often quite similar to the SE anyway (but 2-3C cooler on average).

[markyo]

Hoping for that average summer minus those dreaded spanish  plumes,may they stay firmly stuck on those plains in spain!

[damianslaw]

13 hours ago, cheese said:

I'd be fine with an average summer. Conditions in low-level Yorkshire are often quite similar to the SE anyway (but 2-3C cooler on average).

Conversely I wouldn't be very happy with an average summer as this usually results in Cumbria getting the raw end of the deal, i.e. lots of westerly/southwesterly airstreams with there associated damp, claggy muck. Past three summers have been mixed affairs, but on the whole preety decent, especially July 2013 and 2014, northern blocking has helped keep the dreaded southwesterlies at bay.. which seem to result in a veil of cloud shrouding these parts away from the coast, whilst the rest of the country rejoices in sunny / bright warm sometimes very warm weather. Those in Scotland away from eastern parts no doubt will feel the same.

[cheese]

Well, hopefully a nationwide hot spell occurs at some point.

[Captain Shortwave]

9 hours ago, markyo said:

Hoping for that average summer minus those dreaded spanish  plumes,may they stay firmly stuck on those plains in spain!

Kind of like hoping for a winter with no cold spells whatsoever during winter

I know that plume events can offer rather unpleasant conditions, in fact I tend to get headaches during high humidity in this country, that said the thunderstorms we can get from these events far outweigh any negatives for me, well unless Belgium steals them of course.

[Matthew.]

The Jet stream is looking weak for the beginning of June. If this prevails over Summer High Pressure may be in charge much of the time. Something Im not use to seeing.

[markyo]

13 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Kind of like hoping for a winter with no cold spells whatsoever during winter

I know that plume events can offer rather unpleasant conditions, in fact I tend to get headaches during high humidity in this country, that said the thunderstorms we can get from these events far outweigh any negatives for me, well unless Belgium steals them of course.

Very true,a summer without our spainish friend not turning up wouldn't be the same,bit like having that annoying uncle who visits once a year and you just can't wait to get rid of him! Agree totally the thunder activity they bring is the plus side,just one has to suffer the discomfort first to enjoy the display.

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

The Jet stream is looking weak for the beginning of June. If this prevails over Summer High Pressure may be in charge much of the time. Something Im not use to seeing.

It's an interesting pattern at the moment with high pressure only a few hundred miles from being perfectly located but just a tad too far away. 

I don't think it will be prevalent during summer though given that the current pattern is pretty Nino like and the next easterly wind burst is going to cause a nosedive to Nina (that will probably occur during July and August). 

[wishingforsnow]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

It's an interesting pattern at the moment with high pressure only a few hundred miles from being perfectly located but just a tad too far away. 

I don't think it will be prevalent during summer though given that the current pattern is pretty Nino like and the next easterly wind burst is going to cause a nosedive to Nina (that will probably occur during July and August). 

Given that Nina has not started developing yet, I'd say a transition to Nina is still more likely during August at the earliest if it begins developing in July on the current probability scale by NOAA. 

 

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/perspectives/blogs/ag-weather-forum/blog-post/2016/05/20/summer-la-nina-less-likely

 

Before then, there probably is more chance of High Pressure being prevalent for periods of time as we currently have the advantages of an ENSO neutral period, a weak jet stream and High Pressure in the vicinity over Continental Europe.

Edited May 22, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[summer blizzard]

10 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

Given that Nina has not started developing yet, I'd say a transition to Nina is still more likely during August at the earliest if it begins developing in July on the current probability scale by NOAA. 

 

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/perspectives/blogs/ag-weather-forum/blog-post/2016/05/20/summer-la-nina-less-likely

 

Before then, there probably is more chance of High Pressure being prevalent for periods of time as we currently have the advantages of an ENSO neutral period, a weak jet stream and High Pressure in the vicinity over Continental Europe.

An official Nina requires tri-monthly values so yes, there's no chance that Nina will be declared before Autumn however the atmosphere will head in that direction before then. As i recall from Tamara's post a while back each bout of convection lasts about 60 days so we should expect the easterly trades to surge during July and August which will upwell the cold water and cause a substantial loss in GLAMM. The problem we have is that we're headed towards Nina too fast with strong sub-surface anomalies. 

Essentially, June is where summer is probably at this year in my opinion with probably a similar pattern to this May (trough to south west, high to north east). 

[wishingforsnow]

2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

An official Nina requires tri-monthly values so yes, there's no chance that Nina will be declared before Autumn however the atmosphere will head in that direction before then. As i recall from Tamara's post a while back each bout of convection lasts about 60 days so we should expect the easterly trades to surge during July and August which will upwell the cold water and cause a substantial loss in GLAMM. The problem we have is that we're headed towards Nina too fast with strong sub-surface anomalies. 

Essentially, June is where summer is probably at this year in my opinion with probably a similar pattern to this May (trough to south west, high to north east). 

The La Nina transition is just one of many factors which contributes to the UK Summer weather though. I wouldn't be so pessimistic as to say once June is out of the way Summer will become a write off. I'd say we're still in a favourable position to receive good Summer weather for the first part of Summer (June/July) until the Atlantic Hurricane season begins, by which time La Nina may well have started its influence. And only La Nina is not the be all and end all of Summer in the UK, the meteorological synoptics being either favourable or unfavorable for settled/warm weather in the UK also have a part to play. 

[summer blizzard]

2 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

The La Nina transition is just one of many factors which contributes to the UK Summer weather though. I wouldn't be so pessimistic as to say once June is out of the way Summer will become a write off. I'd say we're still in a favourable position to receive good Summer weather for the first part of Summer (June/July) until the Atlantic Hurricane season begins, by which time La Nina may well have started its influence. And only La Nina is not the be all and end all of Summer in the UK, the meteorological synoptics being either favourable or unfavorable for settled/warm weather in the UK also have a part to play. 

Ah. I'm certainly not suggesting we'll go all 2007 once we get to July and August, simply making the point that i expect the first half to outshine the second. 

[wishingforsnow]

 

3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Ah. I'm certainly not suggesting we'll go all 2007 once we get to July and August, simply making the point that i expect the first half to outshine the second. 

Yes that's what I'm thinking too. I think personally something like 2014 is on the cards with mixed periods of weather but good periods of warm/hot conditions with the first half of Summer being better than the second. 

[Matthew.]

There does seem much expectation around for this Summer and much I expect has come from the media as well as favourable long term forecasts. One of the charts a few days ago looked very similar to June 25th 76' with the Azores High building strongly across the Uk from way Sw. I just wonder if this may happen this year and give a prolonged heatwave and not just a short Spanish plume. I haven't looked into what ocean factors cause the Azores to become so strongly positioned NE though.

[wishingforsnow]

7 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

There does seem much expectation around for this Summer and much I expect has come from the media as well as favourable long term forecasts. One of the charts a few days ago looked very similar to June 25th 76' with the Azores High building strongly across the Uk from way Sw. I just wonder if this may happen this year and give a prolonged heatwave and not just a short Spanish plume. I haven't looked into what ocean factors cause the Azores to become so strongly positioned NE though.

I agree with this, a good sign that this Summer may produce longer periods of warm/hot weather than the 'one day wonders' scattered here and there during last Summer. 

[Matthew.]

From what I've read I expect June to have 1 good spell of weather with it being a nice dry heat with low humidity and then a transition to a humid feel from the end of July through August. It seems to me all 3 months will be at least 1c above normal.