Summer 2016

[Airedalejoe]

On 15/04/2016 at 10:22 PM, Wildswimmer Pete said:

My feelings? Chilly NW winds, cold nights, cloud bubbling up around 10am only to melt away around 8pm leading to another cold night.  Daytime maxima barely exceeding 16C let alone 20-25C.  In other words, "Summer" 2015 rinsed and repeated.  Since 2011 hot summer spells appear to have been restricted to a diminishing number of hot days in July, 2015 saw just three tolerably warm days at the beginning of July and that was it.  Otherwise that cold, NWly breeze all day every day.

Spot on! Hopefully you are wrong as recent spring and summers have been awful. Must be our turn to experience some of the globes hottest years on record!

[weatherguru14]

Only positive i can give. Last year we had a warmish spring followed by a cold summer and that in turn  was followed by  warm autumn..Hopefully a cold spring will turn into a warm summer.. I cant see this patern lasting forever,  the jet stream has got to move north eventually?? Am glad in a way we are having a cold spring..get the crap out of the way early

[stainesbloke]

4 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

Only positive i can give. Last year we had a warmish spring followed by a cold summer and that in turn  was followed by  warm autumn..Hopefully a cold spring will turn into a warm summer.. I cant see this patern lasting forever,  the jet stream has got to move north eventually?? Am glad in a way we are having a cold spring..get the crap out of the way early

Yes agree with you, even though this Spring hadn't been especially warm there have been plenty of very nice days where outdoor activities haven't been spoilt. Also plenty of rain/showers keeping everything lovely and green. It's about time also that the jet stream moves way north this summer, giving the UK some much overdue warmth and sun.

[summer blizzard]

At the current rate it's likely Q3 will see..

- A weakening but near neutral ENSO profile, east based warmth if anything

- A strengthening -QBO

Since 1980 the following Q3 periods have seen a neutral to warm ENSO coupled with a strengthening -QBO..

2005

2014

These years produced their heat fairly early in summer and went out with a whimper. 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

At the current rate it's likely Q3 will see..

- A weakening but near neutral ENSO profile, east based warmth if anything

- A strengthening -QBO

Since 1980 the following Q3 periods have seen a neutral to warm ENSO coupled with a strengthening -QBO..

2005

2014

These years produced their heat fairly early in summer and went out with a whimper. 

32.5C on August 31st 2005? Those two summers were quite different with 2005 producing hot spells in all three months, and all months being pretty dry. From memory only a period mid June, the last week of July and penultimate week of August were naff in terms of weather.

[Milhouse]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

32.5C on August 31st 2005? Those two summers were quite different with 2005 producing hot spells in all three months, and all months being pretty dry. From memory only a period mid June, the last week of July and penultimate week of August were naff in terms of weather.

Summer 2005 was probably one of the most varied summers I can remember with periods of very cool and wet weather balanced out by some lovely summery conditions. A fantastic hot spell in June too.

 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Milhouse said:

Summer 2005 was probably one of the most varied summers I can remember with periods of very cool and wet weather balanced out by some lovely summery conditions. A fantastic hot spell in June too.

 

Indeed. Most of June's rain came from thunderstorms here, July's during a few days in the final week, and August's in the penultimate week. Wouldn't mind a summer like it again this year.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I guess it depends whether the atmosphere engages a Nina base state. Tamara alludes to this being a possibility in the MOD thread from what I can gather. Could be a very wet, cool summer if this is the case. Conversely we may see some warm, settled weather (particularly earlier on) if ENSO neutral pulls the strings.

Latest Glosea suggests a fairly westerly dominated summer with Atlantic troughing more evident further NW with the best chance of ridging further SE. All fairly bland and mostly W'ly according to that model.

Edited April 17, 2016 by CreweCold

[summer blizzard]

9 hours ago, MP-R said:

32.5C on August 31st 2005? Those two summers were quite different with 2005 producing hot spells in all three months, and all months being pretty dry. From memory only a period mid June, the last week of July and penultimate week of August were naff in terms of weather.

Naturally i'm not suggesting we can't have three fine days and a thunderstorm but suggesting that the last day of August makes the month is like saying that because we got 32.4C on the 28th May that year, May was good. On average, August was a relatively uneventful month from memory with a very average CET value. I'd call that going out with a whimper on the whole.

The period from mid-June to mid-July was actually very good with the second half of June still being the hottest since 1976, it certainly went downhill in the second half of July though. 

[cheese]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Naturally i'm not suggesting we can't have three fine days and a thunderstorm but suggesting that the last day of August makes the month is like saying that because we got 32.4C on the 28th May that year, May was good. On average, August was a relatively uneventful month from memory with a very average CET value. I'd call that going out with a whimper on the whole.

The period from mid-June to mid-July was actually very good with the second half of June still being the hottest since 1976, it certainly went downhill in the second half of July though. 

Well, let's not exaggerate.. August 2005 was marginally warmer than average but that's no bad thing, is it? It had an average high of 21.2C in Leeds, so perfectly pleasant if completely unremarkable (81-10 average is 21C). Was also drier than average.

And, on closer inspection, August 2005 was warmer than July 2005, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

August 2014 OTOH was very cool, wet and generally unsettled, so a different kettle of fish entirely.

Edited April 18, 2016 by cheese

[MP-R]

8 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Naturally i'm not suggesting we can't have three fine days and a thunderstorm but suggesting that the last day of August makes the month is like saying that because we got 32.4C on the 28th May that year, May was good. On average, August was a relatively uneventful month from memory with a very average CET value. I'd call that going out with a whimper on the whole.

The period from mid-June to mid-July was actually very good with the second half of June still being the hottest since 1976, it certainly went downhill in the second half of July though. 

I'm not insinuating that at all, and I think you know that. August 2005 was largely a very summery month, which turned a bit autumnal during the penultimate week, before summer made a return at the end of the month and last until mid September. In my neck of the woods at least, it was as sunny as June and July. I think it's average CET value was down to cooler nights as there were plentiful warm sunny days. May on the other hand was very disappointing - very cool first half, then wet and thundery with a brief heatwave somewhere near the end.

[cheeky_monkey]

i don't remember much about summer 2005 apart from that stonking lovely June..so im guessing July and August were much of a muchness??...maybe 1980 could be on the cards?...cool and dry just a thought

[Weather-history]

The thing I will always associate with summer 2005 is England regaining the Ashes after 18 years. 

Summer 2005 had its ups and downs but it wasn't too bad overall. 

[MP-R]

A look through the archives shows the following for summer 2005.

June: unsettled first few days, then anticyclonic before another brief unsettled period 12th-16th, then very warm second half with a notable heatwave on the 18th/19th, remaining warm or hot until the very end when the Atlantic moved in. There were some cracking storms in the second half of the month, especially the 19th/20th, 23rd/24th and 28th/29th.

     

July: unsettled opening days and final week but largely settled for the remainder. Highlights were a thundery convective day on the 04th, the heatwave from the 10th-15th, and the Birmingham tornado on the 28th, associated with a week of southerly tracking low pressure. The 28th was actually a warm humid day but the final week was very disappointingly cool and quite wet.

     

August: a variable but mostly dry first week, lengthy settled weather during the second and third week, both with warm days and cool nights (the 13th being the exception when rain crossed the country), the unsettled spell in the fourth week is plain to see in the fifth chart, then summery again to finish the month with a heatwave followed by thunderstorms - this pattern repeated into the first week of September.

     

 

All in all, it was a very decent summer, but it's understandable looking through the archives why some in the north and northeast don't have the same memories of it as those in the south, especially the first half of June and the first week of August.

[wishingforsnow]

On 17 April 2016 at 1:02 PM, summer blizzard said:

At the current rate it's likely Q3 will see..

- A weakening but near neutral ENSO profile, east based warmth if anything

- A strengthening -QBO

Since 1980 the following Q3 periods have seen a neutral to warm ENSO coupled with a strengthening -QBO..

2005

2014

These years produced their heat fairly early in summer and went out with a whimper. 

Summers 2005 and 2014 were nothing to complain about in my opinion: apart from August 2014 being ruined by Hurricane Bertha - other than that, I'd more or less take a repeat of those for this year 

@weatherguru14 I agree, after looking more deeply into weather patterns of previous years, I'm now starting to think that predominantely warmer than average dry settled springs are bad omens for Summer based on the average to disastrous recent summers that followed such Springs (2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012). I wouldn't say last summer was particularly bad but it was still cooler than average despite being dry, no proper heatwaves and real warm spells lasted no more than a day.

As for Summer 2016 it's a fine line regarding settled and unsettled weather. Long range modelling at this point can be very vague and uncertain - from what I can gather, La Nina and when it will fully begin is a big reason for why they have been switching from between warm and dry and cool and wet. Nothing is clear cut at the moment - as I mentioned before I recall the models and sites like WSI predicting a warm and dry Summer in 2012 for the UK during that Spring only for the outlook to rightfully change once Summer had started and it was clear that predominantely cool and wet weather would be dominant. Also 2015 was predicted as cool and wet and whilst it was on the cooler side of average, for me it wasn't mostly wet and occasionally there were pleasant warm spells. 

In my opinion - La Nina beginning most likely at the end of Summer could see cool and unsettled weather more likely during the second half, particularly in August. But with ENSO neutral conditions pulling the strings during late spring and early summer this could mean more chances of a lot of warmer, dry proper Summer weather for the first part (May/June/July). I wouldn't say a clear cut settled and warm (2003) or unsettled and cool (2007/2011/2012) summer but a mixed bag much like 2014 as a recent good example.

Edited April 19, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[weatherguru14]

Wishingforsnow i agree with the warmer springs bringing cooler summers..From memory March 2013  was very snowy.. Infact the snowiest month i can recall in recent years. May was cold and wet. But the weather cheered up just intime for June.. June was nice in the western part of the UK. like June was in 2014f for the east of the UK.. In recent years weather paterns see, to be  getting stuck in a rut...So if we get a good may,june may follow suit... I always think summer depends on June anyway..Need the temperture to build.. It took to autumn last year before if felt warm

[Summer Sun]

3rd summer update from Matt Hugo

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3190&title=Summer+2016+update+3

[Summer Sun]

James Madden says a hot summer is on the way if the guy is right I'll be delighted not getting my hopes up tho

 

 

 

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

James Madden says a hot summer is on the way if the guy is right I'll be delighted not getting my hopes up tho

 

 

 

All depends on that sodding jet stream going north like it is supposed to in summer, not racing across the globe at 50 degrees north 12 months of the year!

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

James Madden says a hot summer is on the way if the guy is right I'll be delighted not getting my hopes up tho

 

 

 

So...we can look forward to repeated summertime snowfalls, then?

[Summer Sun]

Just now, stainesbloke said:

All depends on that sodding jet stream going north like it is supposed to in summer, not racing across the globe at 50 degrees north 12 months of the year!

Maybe we're getting the blocking high out the way early this time? who knows, only time will tell....

How many times before have we have glorious Aprils and May's only for it to get belly up come June then magically improve in September

[stainesbloke]

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Maybe we're getting the blocking high out the way early this time? who knows, only time will tell....

How many times before have we have glorious Aprils and May's only for it to get belly up come June then magically improve in September

Would be nice just to have a proper variety of weather! Not just low pressure, cold winds and loads of cloud. 

[weatherguru14]

The wind  direction  when we have poor summers usually comes from west to northwest.. its been a northerly to northeasterly of late.. maybe the pressure  paterns will be different this summer leading to a better summer over all..time will tell. one things for sure it cant get any worse than it is now (fingers crossed)

[Summer Sun]

Latest seasonal update from the weather company formally WSI covering May, June and July

Quote

Summer Signals Mixed, Generally Favor Cool/Wet Western Europe

Andover, MA

For the aggregate May-July period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting generally above-normal temperatures across Europe, with near or slightly below-normal temperatures confined to the UK and northwestern mainland Europe. Wet and windy weather is expected to be the rule across much of the mainland, with drier and less windy conditions expected across southeastern Europe.

“The strong North Atlantic blocking pattern has resulted in the current unseasonably cool weather across much Europe, and this cold spell has been rather rare in recent months. The very rare late winter breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex has resulted in a tendency towards strong blocking, and that may persist for a while into May,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist, The Weather Company. “Because of this, we have kept below-normal temperatures in our forecast for western Europe during the month, with above-normal temperatures continuing across eastern Europe. As we look ahead into summer, there is little convergence in the solutions from the various forecast models we rely on. For now, we are confining the below-normal temperatures to the UK and parts of northwestern mainland Europe, with another hot summer likely farther east. ”

For the May to July 2016 time period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following conditions:

May:

Nordic Region*- Warmer than normal , except southern Norway

UK* - Cooler than normal

Northern Mainland* - Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west

Southern Mainland* - Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west

June:

Nordic Region - Warmer than normal

UK - Cooler than normal

Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west

Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal

July:

Nordic Region - Warmer than normal, except near-normal south

UK – Cooler than normal

Northern Mainland - Cooler than normal

Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal

http://business.weather.com/news/the-weather-company-forecasts-continued-cool-weather-across-western-europe-in-may

[cheese]

That would certainly be a kick in the groin after the atrocious winter we've just endured.  When will it be our turn for a hot summer? Eastern Europe has had nothing but hot summers the past decade. 

Edited April 27, 2016 by cheese