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DisruptiveGust

Storm & Convective Discussion April 2016 Onwards

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Just now, Costa Del Fal said:

3rd thunderstorm of this week now in the area. :D

That's the one that came through Telford and produce just the one flash. Seems Telford is the breeding ground.

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Loud little thunderstorm just now. Came right over the top of us here. Hail too.

Edited by Gord

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Flash and rumble from my West

Edited by Arnie Pie

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Sunny here now but incredibly dark to my east as it moves away. Still rumbling too. This one should be good for Brum!

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Storm just ended.

Fifteen minute hailstorm which started of pea-sized and became marble-sized , pretty nice.

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3 minutes ago, Gord said:

Sunny here now but incredibly dark to my east as it moves away. Still rumbling too. This one should be good for Brum!

looks like it might slide just to the west of birmingham judging by the radar but one never knows

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3 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

looks like it might slide just to the west of birmingham judging by the radar but one never knows

Think you are right. Was a decent little storm though, if short lived. Nice to get one that came right over!

Got to enjoy this one from my house on the hill rather than at work from my tram cab for a change!

Edited by Gord

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17 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

looks like it might slide just to the west of birmingham judging by the radar but one never knows

Over Warley Woods atm... Pea size hail here

IMG_9129.JPG

 

Edited by Arnie Pie

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Bugger all over this way - just the usual spectacular Cbs with sod-all underneath!:angry:

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1 hour ago, ThundersnowDays said:

First thunder of the year here.

Five low loud booms in the distance.

That caused an insane hailstorm and flooding between Trowbridge and Westbury. Makes me wonder where all the energy has come from under a ridge of HIGH pressure.

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we had a very short lived cloudburst this afternoon on west mendip ,neighbour who was out clearing his gutter said he heard distant thunder ,gone pretty chilly here now ,despite the showers not a bad day ,cheers .

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14 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Hail shower with a rainbow

2016_04300045_zpsxk2jv1mh.jpg

 

Hail showers were the order of the morning. An intense one around 10am with thunder. Left a temporary covering of hail

 

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I am enjoying seeing these colours appearing on UK charts again. As we all know things could change in this timescale.

123.png1234.png123456.png12345.png

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 02 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Tue 03 May 2016

ISSUED 15:07 UTC Sun 01 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

An Atlantic frontal system will slide southeastwards across the British Isles during Monday, beneath a sharpening upper trough - as this trough interacts with the surface cold front, it seems likely that elements of line convection will develop, particularly across the Midlands into East Anglia through the afternoon and early evening. Overall, such elements will be too shallow for lightning, but it is not out of the question that some isolated lightning may occur with such features along the cold front, and perhaps any following showers in the post-frontal environment, hence the extension of the (low-end) LOW across Midlands / East Anglia.

Otherwise, primary risk of lightning will be associated with scattered showers in the post-frontal environment, as cooling aloft over relatively warm SSTs, and diurnal heating inland, develops deep convection with sporadic lightning. Given steep lapse rates and cold air aloft, some small hail is likely from the stronger cores that develop.

largethumb.php.png

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-02

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Ok

just looking at the latest gfs 18z and the risk is still there for next weekend altough it has dropped a bit from the 12z

at the moment,it is saturday that is looking like the best shot for thundery activity with Li values of -3 with some quiet heavy ppn pushing north and the temps arn't too bad either

Rtavn14411.gifRtavn1444.gifRtavn14417.gif

just need to get closer to the short range models from mid week onwards to see if the potential is still there

so a long way to go yet,but i hope this one comes off:D

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Ok

just looking at the latest gfs 18z and the risk is still there for next weekend altough it has dropped a bit from the 12z

at the moment,it is saturday that is looking like the best shot for thundery activity with Li values of -3 with some quiet heavy ppn pushing north and the temps arn't too bad either

Rtavn14411.gifRtavn1444.gifRtavn14417.gif

just need to get closer to the short range models from mid week onwards to see if the potential is still there

so a long way to go yet,but i hope this one comes off:D

 

No doubt tomorrow morning's 00Z will pump the power back up again! From past experience, the 18Z GFS has a tendency to downgrade 'plumage potential' :D 

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2 minutes ago, Convective said:

No doubt tomorrow morning's 00Z will pump the power back up again! From past experience, the 18Z GFS has a tendency to downgrade 'plumage potential' :D 

Yes C,i see what you meen,it likes to produce good pub runs for colder weather in the winter months lol,as it stands,you could be in a good spot come sat evening/sun:)

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9 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Ok

just looking at the latest gfs 18z and the risk is still there for next weekend altough it has dropped a bit from the 12z

at the moment,it is saturday that is looking like the best shot for thundery activity with Li values of -3 with some quiet heavy ppn pushing north and the temps arn't too bad either

Rtavn14411.gifRtavn1444.gifRtavn14417.gif

just need to get closer to the short range models from mid week onwards to see if the potential is still there

so a long way to go yet,but i hope this one comes off:D

 

You can see that most of any convection seems to be sitting on the continent and is more mid level, meaning better storm potential for the likes of southern coastal areas. ;)

Edited by William Grimsley

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Squall line appears to be forming out to the West, in the main band of ppn which is crossing the country atm

...Could be interesting

Edit; mmm......slow moving from W to E  but still intensifying

Edited by Arnie Pie

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And Sunny Sheffield s8 post code once again sails straight through the gap. Anyway not a squall line as there's very little wind the wind dying away before the remains arrived.

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58 minutes ago, The PIT said:

And Sunny Sheffield s8 post code once again sails straight through the gap. Anyway not a squall line as there's very little wind the wind dying away before the remains arrived.

Excuse the technical grammar Pit ....Enlightenment is a good thing 

Edit; line of weather just passed through bringing 5 mins of heavy rain with a slight increase of wind speeds....No T&L

Edited by Arnie Pie

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The rain was very torrential here for 5 minutes or so earlier. Very difficult to drive in! 

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