Storm & Convective Discussion April 2016 Onwards

[Weather-history]

Hail shower with a rainbow

 

[Gordon Webb]

14 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 30 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 01 May 2016

ISSUED 16:21 UTC Fri 29 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Sharpening upper trough and associated cold pool in the mid-levels will continue to clear eastwards from eastern Britain on Saturday; the approaching rear-side jet will serve to increase DLS from the west later in the day, accompanied by rising heights as ridging develops. This then provides a narrow window (spatially) for deep convection to occur.

Nonetheless, scattered showers will develop during the day in response to diurnal heating and steep lapse rates, particularly focussed late afternoon/early evening along zones of low-level wind convergence given fairly slack flow, perhaps with some organisation as DLS increases. Some sporadic/isolated lightning is likely, especially so in a zone from Lincolnshire down to the Home Counties / London / SE England (highlighted by a second LOW for clarity), but overall potential is considered below SLGT threshold. Given steep lapse rates and cold air aloft, numerous incidents of small hail / graupel are once again likely.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-04-30

looks like the best chance is further E again today , wonder if william has any hair left to pull out by now ?

[William Grimsley]

1 hour ago, Gordon Webb said:

looks like the best chance is further E again today , wonder if william has any hair left to pull out by now ?

Certainly not. Looking very good for me the week after next!

[Gordon Webb]

looks to be one or two heavy showers knocking about NW England rattling there way through

[Nick F]

Convergence indicated by models towards east coast of England today, so could be some funnel reports today under showers or storms that form here. Eastern England the focus for storms, with a residual cold pool aloft here from the upper trough exiting east.

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-04-30 08:51:44

Valid: 30/04/2016 0600z to 31/04/2016 0600z

CONVECTIVE FORECAST - SATURDAY 30TH APRIL 2016

Synopsis

Upper trough begins to slide away east from Britain on Saturday, with a ridge beginning to build in from Atlantic across SW Britain and Ireland. A residual cold pool from the upper trough to the east across SE Britain will bring another day of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms to eastern England today.

... EAST and SE ENGLAND ...

Upper cold pool across SE Britain will create steep lapse rates here (30-32C between 850-500mb) and will generate a few 100 j/kg CAPE with surface heating late morning and through the afternoon. As a result, heavy showers and some thunderstorms will develop in the above areas, accompanied by hail. Cells will  be slow-moving given light steering winds, so heavy rain from these cells may lead to localised flooding. Breeze convergence is indicated by models to develop towards the east coast or just inland from the coast, so storms maybe be focused along these zones. As is typical of convergence zones, stronger updrafts into storms may rotate to form funnel clouds or even isolated brief/weak tornadoes/waterspouts. Storms should quickly fade after dark.

[Gordon Webb]

could be some fun and games with these showers as the get into E/SE areas this afternoon , could be an exciting afternoon for some , of courses there are currently a few strikes with these at the moment but it's seems to come and go perhaps these are what people call pulse showers/storms

Edited April 30, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[Gordon Webb]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Convergence indicated by models towards east coast of England today, so could be some funnel reports today under showers or storms that form here. Eastern England the focus for storms, with a residual cold pool aloft here from the upper trough exiting east.

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-04-30 08:51:44

Valid: 30/04/2016 0600z to 31/04/2016 0600z

CONVECTIVE FORECAST - SATURDAY 30TH APRIL 2016

Synopsis

Upper trough begins to slide away east from Britain on Saturday, with a ridge beginning to build in from Atlantic across SW Britain and Ireland. A residual cold pool from the upper trough to the east across SE Britain will bring another day of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms to eastern England today.

... EAST and SE ENGLAND ...

Upper cold pool across SE Britain will create steep lapse rates here (30-32C between 850-500mb) and will generate a few 100 j/kg CAPE with surface heating late morning and through the afternoon. As a result, heavy showers and some thunderstorms will develop in the above areas, accompanied by hail. Cells will  be slow-moving given light steering winds, so heavy rain from these cells may lead to localised flooding. Breeze convergence is indicated by models to develop towards the east coast or just inland from the coast, so storms maybe be focused along these zones. As is typical of convergence zones, stronger updrafts into storms may rotate to form funnel clouds or even isolated brief/weak tornadoes/waterspouts. Storms should quickly fade after dark.

lastest bbc news 24 forecast essentiallty re-iterated was has been written here some heavy and thundery downpours in eastern england this afternoon

[weather09]

Had a nice shower here with quite a bit of graupel and a few snow flakes. Freezing level around 1000m, though cold low-level air being transported to the surface within downdrafts allowing for brief wintriness. No thunder, sadly.

[Gordon Webb]

19 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Had a nice shower here with quite a bit of graupel and a few snow flakes. Freezing level around 1000m, though cold low-level air being transported to the surface within downdrafts allowing for brief wintriness. No thunder, sadly.

just about to see a shower myself i think not a lot of thunder about at the minute probably wating to all go east then bang

 

edit - raining here now

Edited April 30, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[Arnie Pie]

mmm....Cells seem to be backing up and building to the W of the area....noticeable there is the lack of cloud movement over the city compared with healthier flow earlier

 

[Arnie Pie]

Yep Nice CG to my North .....

[STORMGUY]

great bit of hail and thunder here.

 

Walsall Live Weather Cam

[Arnie Pie]

1 minute ago, STORMGUY said:

great bit of hail and thunder here.

 

Walsall Live Weather Cam

  Great live stream stormy

[STORMGUY]

3 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

  Great live stream stormy

Thank You.

 

its a 24/7 stream.

[Arnie Pie]

Just watching that cell travel at the back of the city

Storm Guy Good choice going with Camsecure ......cant recommend them enough

(hope to share your first strike with you...Good luck mate)

Edited April 30, 2016 by Arnie Pie

[weather09]

Missed the lightning but heard the thunder. Must have been a decent bolt as thunder sounded good even from here.  Had nice pea-sized hail falling for a good while though.  

[Gordon Webb]

I'm hoping the thunders died down a little looking very dark here

[Arnie Pie]

1 minute ago, weather09 said:

Missed the lightning but heard the thunder. Must have been a decent bolt as thunder sounded good even from here.  Had nice pea-sized hail falling for a good while though.  

Yep Looked good from here, might have caught it ..will check later

What about stomguys stream

[STORMGUY]

You can see that storm Anvil over Telford on my webcam just above the house roofs  to the right

[Stormraider]

Just the one flash from the small cell over Telford. A couple from a cell earlier this pm.

[Gordon Webb]

got the firght of my life heard this loud rumble turned out to bae an advert on tv think it doubled my heart rate

[STORMGUY]

Getting black now towards the webcam direction

[ThundersnowDays]

First thunder of the year here.

Five low loud booms in the distance.

[Arnie Pie]

Dark to my West now

[Costa Del Fal]

3rd thunderstorm of this week now in the area.