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Storm & Convective Discussion April 2016 Onwards


Liam J

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 12 Apr 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 13 Apr 2016

ISSUED 20:28 UTC Mon 11 Apr 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Omega Block over NW Atlantic maintains a broad upper low west of Biscay, extending towards the British Isles through Tuesday. The associated cold mid-levels combined with diurnal heating will generate 300-500Jkg-1 CAPE. Forecast profiles are quite dry, and convective initiation will be heavily reliant on low-level wind convergence (from sea breeze and topographical effects), hence even within the broad SLGT there will be a good deal of dry weather still in many places with showers generally well-scattered and focussed over small areas.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop, particularly from late morning and moreso through the afternoon and into the evening, capable of producing hail locally bigger than 1.0cm in diameter in any stronger cells. DLS is rather weak and hence showers/storms will be rather lacking in organisation, but slow storm motion will likely produce 10-15mm rain accumulations in just 1-2 hours, with elements of shower training also - and hence there is a risk of some local surface water flooding issues.

It is hard to ascertain any particular areas where showers/storms are most likely to occur, hence the broad SLGT, although most NWP are in agreement for north Cornwall/Devon eastwards along M4 corridor to Thames Estuary as being on area of focus, along with S + E Wales into the W Midlands perhaps. Coverage (albeit still fairly well-scattered) may continue to expand in the SLGT well into the evening hours, before eventual decay takes over later in the evening due to nocturnal cooling. A few funnel clouds or a weak tornado are possible close to convergence zones.

Some question marks remain over how quick frontal rain clears East Anglia/Lincolnshire during the morning, which may inhibit convection here until quite late in the day. There is also a suggestion that frontal rain may turn more convective in nature across parts of northern England perhaps. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

 

would condier myself VERY UNLUCKY if I got something tomorrow anyway plan to do quantum break on xbox one and consdier myself luck I didn't purchase PC version

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
7 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Time for a new thread as we're nearly halfway through spring with summer just around the corner.

Storm & convective discussion for the UK & Ireland, if you want to discuss storms across the rest of Europe there's a thread here.

Unhappy with the lack of storms in your area? There's a thread here if you want a moan.

Old thread here.

 

what no thread about been happy about lack of storms it's a conspiracy I tell you lol

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
12 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Trouble is we're not actually drawing up any warmth/moisture of note from the south. Yesterday and today saw modest theta-w environment in the low to mid levels advect across the country (which destabilised off SW coast and over Cornwall with aid of sharpened upper trough/large scale ascent and cold front), which has now moved away to the NE. The potential over the next few days is going to be diurnally-driven, where instability is generated via heating of landmass under cold air aloft, creating steep low-mid level lapse rates and low-end CAPE.  Certainly no advection of deep moisture sourced from far south/SW for the short term. For that, we'd need to see a more robust ridge develop northward over SW/central Europe, building heat over the continent and putting a more negative tilt on the upper trough to the west. The GFS and ECM appear to be modeling this sort of upper pattern post-T144- remains to be seen if that theme will continue. 

Tomorrow sees another low risk for southern half of the UK, with focus on Midlands south where clearing skies allows for the sun to get to work during the day, which looks to build a few 100j/kg CAPE mid-late afternoon per latest modeling.  Very little movement aloft and non-existent shear, so another day of slow-moving, 'pulse' convection. Light, converging sfc winds likely focus for deep convective/storm activity, but anywhere where heating is maximised can see convection develop into showers/storms. Strongest storms likely to bring a hail (given steep lapse rates) and gusty wind threat. 

Yep, not quite at the right time of the year yet. End of May through to August is when this type of setup is at its most ripe. July the 4th last year being a textbook example. 

Nevertheless, still not doing too bad for so early on in the season :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
8 hours ago, Gordon Webb said:

what no thread about been happy about lack of storms it's a conspiracy I tell you lol

You can join the no storms club and be happy that you're in it :D 

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

A very unstable sky here this morning, it's a shame I'm too far south. Good luck to anyone inland today!

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

You can see Altocumulus Castellanus cloud on my Nest cam live stream here: https://video.nest.com/live/Atmiip. I'm gutted that I won't be available until late afternoon here. However, I might be able to get to something if I'm lucky though especially if anything occurs locally!

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Is there any chance anything will be imported? I doubt I'll be able to do any storm chasing today.

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
18 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Is there any chance anything will be imported? I doubt I'll be able to do any storm chasing today.

Area of heavy showers currently heading over Paris looks like it'll be moving towards S England. Might see some homegrown activity too with some decent sunny spells developing.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

most models and forecasts I think focus on the M4 corridor and perhaps maybe the south midlands and s wales as well and really not until mid late afternoon so seems a shortish window and today seems to have the most potential of the next few days (guess)

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Nice webcam Will!

Thick mist/fog here this morning and feeling like autumn lol. Sometimes it feels like another world compared to the south coast. BBC seemed to reckon 2pm onwards for the biggest cells in the area, with the lightning symbol poised over Bristol so fingers crossed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_120416.png

Issued 2016-04-12 08:50:39

Valid: 12/04/2016 0600z to 13/04/2016 0600z

CONVECTIVE FORECAST - TUESDAY 12TH APRIL 2016

Synopsis

Slow-moving deep upper low and collocated surface low to the SW of the UK will drive a slack, cyclonic and unstable flow across southern Britain to the south of a slow-moving occluded frontal zone across northern Britain.

... S ENGLAND, S WALES, MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA  and EIRE ...

Cold air aloft from the upper low to the SW atop of moist surface airmass warmed by the sun will generate around 200-300 j/kg CAPE across the above areas this afternoon. Slack surface flow and surface heating will allow weak sea breeze and moisture convergence boundaries to develop by this afternoon. Given weak synoptic lift, these convergence boundaries will be the primary trigger for heavy surface-based showers and thunderstorms to develop from early afternoon.

Showers/storms will be slow-moving, with a risk of hail and intense rainfall leading to a risk of localised flooding in places. Also, given weak winds aloft and surface convergence, funnel clouds and even brief weak tornadoes/waterspouts can't be ruled out with stronger updrafts. Have included a marginal risk of severe weather for the risk of flooding. Showers/storms should begin to fade by late evening.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=c1211cb10013167dc45c8ccca0774eae

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

Lots of disorganised wind patterns today and for tomorrow as well, divergences and convergences in a few places. Thought I'd post the NMM SBCAPE and Li 18Z with it also.

viewimage22.png

viewimage23.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

does look focused on m4 corridor as all forcasts says bbc shows most of the shoers there from early afternoon convectiveweather.co.uk has focus there Metcheck (BOOOOOOOOOOO) has it slightly further north but what do they know lol

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

As I posted in the south east thread, this morning seemed very close and humid to me, if we were in high summer I would say a bit of heating and boom. For once I'm thinking Bedford might actually supply the good today.

fingers and toe crossed.

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

If I had a punt as to where I think something thundery may occur it would be somewhere around East Somerset/Wiltshire I.e Yeovil to Swindon and also around Worcester. Just a guesstimate though. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

Still cloudy where I am sun not making appearance yet

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

nice convection kicking off here now....hopefully in a prime spot for this afternoon :)

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

still cloudy here, although the sun is trying to peep through. Light breeze now picking up - no breeze at all first thing.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

First shower of the day has formed just west of Bath, I think most showers will develop more NE of here towards Somerset and Bristol.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
7 minutes ago, Dami said:

still cloudy here, although the sun is trying to peep through. Light breeze now picking up - no breeze at all first thing.

Yep same convectiveweather site seems to have gone down 

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Lots of Altocumulus Castellanus cloud has passed over here this morning with just Altocumulus cloud at the moment, was sort of surprised at how much instability there was even here this morning.

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