Storm & Convective Discussion April 2016 Onwards

[DeepSnow]

It might be spoilt of me but I hope to see another storm today, to make up for the lack of recent years! It would certainly be a good start to the year to have 2 days in a row!

[Ben Sainsbury]

From what I can see based on GFS Charts, were looking at CAPE of 400-500J/Kg, along with increased temperatures today peaking at 15-16'c (higher further east) for most areas. This combined with the potential convergence zones out over North Devon. So how I see it; so the majority of storms I expect to form over BANES/Bath/Wiltshire into a line through to Oxford (Similar to Yesterday), and then for these storms to push NE'wards. These could become weakly electrified and most potent around 5-6pm. However I believe if storms do form over North Devon, these could be the more active of the storms (better structure etc.), whilst pushing Northwards into S Wales. Generally all showers originally forming in Cornwall and risk extending NE'wards throughout the day. All in all along with being similar to yesterday, I expect to see showers more widespread as a result of more diurnal heating today and temperatures peaking 16-17'c.

Edited April 13, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[Chrystal]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

That is right, as long as the conditions are right for the funnel to touch down.

Thanks Ben :-)

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-04-13 08:35:05

Valid: 13/04/2016 0600z to 14/04/2016 0600z

CONVECTIVE FORECAST - WEDS 13TH APRIL 2016

Synopsis

A slow-moving upper and collocated surface low to the SW of Britain continues to dominate the weather on Wednesday, with a slow-moving weather front bringing further cloud and rain northern England northwards, while to the south will be a slack but unstable airmass.

... SERN EIRE, ENGLAND and WALES ...

Cold and dry air aloft circulating around the upper low to the SW atop of moist surface airmass heated by the sun will produce steep lapse rates. Increasing surface heating through the day will generate 200-500 j/kg CAPE by mid-afternoon, breeze and moisture convergence zones will develop in the slack synoptic wind field which, like yesterday, will be the primary forcing mechanism to allow heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop from late morning onwards.

Perhaps a slightly more widespread risk of thunderstorms on Wednesday, though models suggest the highest temperatures, moisture and thus CAPE appear to be Sern Ireland, south Wales, southern England, Midlands and E Anglia - so storms perhaps most numerous here. Showers or thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail (isolated 1-1.5cm in diameter), gusty winds and large rainfall totals in a short space of time leading to localised flooding. Weak winds aloft and surface convergence will create ideal conditions for funnel clouds or even brief weak tornadoes/waterspouts to develop with stronger updrafts. Showers/storms will be hit-and-miss, so not all places will see them.

Southern Ireland, S Wales, S England and E Anglia are covered by a MARGINAL risk of severe weather for risk of flooding and perhaps marginal risk of large hail. General thunderstorm risk for other areas.

Edited April 13, 2016 by Nick F

[MP-R]

Sat24 nicely showing what a stubborn area this is for mist and fog. As soon as it clears then things can get going - can't see what types of clouds are above this fog yet.

[Wilxy]

6 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Sat24 nicely showing what a stubborn area this is for mist and fog. As soon as it clears then things can get going - can't see what types of clouds are above this fog yet.

Camera is on charge just in case anything happens

[Stormyking]

I wouldnt be surprised if some Elevated showers moved up from the South later on this Evening and Tonight, a few of the high res charts are picking up on some showers developed in the Channel which will be Elevated. there was a shower that developed too about 6am this Morning which produced Lightning which could be heard from the Island.

Edited April 13, 2016 by Stormyking

[Azazel]

beautiful out there this morning. I suspect we shall be too far south again though:(

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Can see this being a better day already for eastern parts. The sun has been out from the word go, whereas yesterday at this time now, we was under that heavy rainfall from the stubborn front that is now over Northumberland. More widespread activity looks possible. Sat24 showing lots of clear skies from East Yorkshire, York and Lancashire southwards  

[liamtellis]

Sun making an appearance here now after a foggy morning in Cardiff. Hopefully things will kick off here later after we missed out on a couple of thunderstorms to our west last night. Temps got up to 15.4C here at 5pm last night and felt muggy.

Edited April 13, 2016 by liamtellis

[Stormyking]

Thought i would share this with you from last night, my friend has aloud me to share, this shot was from the Storms that was passing the channel islands yesterday evening, we could see it crystal clear aswell from the South part of the Island!

[Harry]

30 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

Thought i would share this with you from last night, my friend has aloud me to share, this shot was from the Storms that was passing the channel islands yesterday evening, we could see it crystal clear aswell from the South part of the Island!

Quite simply, that is stunning! 

Textbook sky to the S/SE of London at the moment. Beaming sunshine, smattering of clouds at different altitudes and the first tentative indications of the development of a Cu field as the day heats up.

Thus far looking pretty good, will have to see how the next few hours pan out.

Edited April 13, 2016 by Harry

[Mapantz]

Almost 16°C here already. I hope it stays this way if I'm honest.. But then again..

 

 

[Greeny]

On way back from Peterborough and now starting to see some initiation in places like in the picture. Not the best pic I know..

Looking at it now its forming a line.

[Wilxy]

Lovely day out there, will be interesting to see what happens this afternoon. 14°C

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

12 minutes ago, Greenday said:

On way back from Peterborough and now starting to see some initiation in places like in the picture. Not the best pic I know..

Looking at it now its forming a line.

Is that towards the west of borough. I'm seeing the same thing. It's been rapidly trying to rise already! 

[Azazel]

15 minutes ago, Greenday said:

On way back from Peterborough and now starting to see some initiation in places like in the picture. Not the best pic I know..

Looking at it now its forming a line.

Looks like something out of the Midwest:D

 

Makes me yearn to be in the fields near my house and not stuck in this stuffy office in Basingstoke:(

[weather09]

Nice bubbly cumulus here too, much like in Greenday's pic. Hoping something pops up here this afternoon/evening. Euro4 breaking showers/storms out from mid-afternoon here. Thought I might have got to see a flash of lightning yesterday evening with those late developing showers that were in the region, but just the heavy shower here in the end.  

[Greeny]

It was on my left after I came out of all the little villages after whittlesey. Im now on the a47 on the dual carriageway part after Wisbech and theres quite a few areas now some on the right side too. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

6 minutes ago, Greenday said:

It was on my left after I came out of all the little villages after whittlesey. Im now on the a47 on the dual carriageway part after Wisbech and theres quite a few areas now some on the right side too. 

Looking much more decent for our end of the woods today I must say. 

[Greeny]

Looks like some altocumulus in the distance to my north.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

First signs of the cap breaking! 

[Ben Sainsbury]

This Satellite really shows the development of these showers beginning to kick off!

 http://en.sat24.com/HD/en/eu/visual

[Gordon Webb]

4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

First signs of the cap breaking! 

well your general area was one highlighted for more activity than yesterday according to most forecasts

[Wilxy]

Nice Developments to my south, although its moving more West to East today, unlike yesterday when it was SW to NE trajectory.