Storm & Convective Discussion April 2016 Onwards

[Stormyking]

Nicee little treat tonight, end up watching the lightning from the Channel Island storms, the view was crystal clear! Saw some beauties!

[Woollymummy]

I left work too late to rush home and be right underneath a whopper today, Boar's Hill got hammered, I arrived home just after the thunder, lightning, hail and flash floods, the kids enjoyed it a lot. Lots of hail lying in drifts even after the rain had soaked everything.

[Greeny]

This picture was taken by Darren Armstrong and posted in our fb group today. Picture was taken from Lingwood looking towards Gt Yarmouth.

[Mesoscale]

Look at those storms in northern Netherlands, lets hope the UK can muster up a few good ones this year. Amazing how we are only 20 miles away from those countries and we can only muster up a few heavy showers with a few flashes mixed in. It can't really be the channel can it?

Anyone have any links to live cams in that area? 

Edited April 12, 2016 by Mesoscale

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

21 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Look at those storms in northern Netherlands, lets hope the UK can muster up a few good ones this year. Amazing how we are only 20 miles away from those countries and we can only muster up a few heavy showers with a few flashes mixed in. It can't really be the channel can it?

Anyone have any links to live cams in that area? 

Yep, goodness me that's a big one erupted out of nowhere heading up towards Groningen and the German border. 

It really is the channel I think. Having that uninterrupted fetch from Holland/Belgium all the way down to the Pyrenees is what makes the difference from what I've seen over the years. 

Amazingly some hefty showers are still firing up across the Midlands! Pretty impressive 

[Gordon Webb]

WED 13 APR 2016: A SLIGHT chance of thunderstorms:

Similar setup on Wednesday to Tuesday, with a large W-E elongated upper trough sitting across eastern Atlantic and British Isles. The associated cold mid-levels combined with diurnal heating will generate 300-500J/kg CAPE (locally higher in Ireland). Forecast profiles are quite dry, and convective initiation will be heavily reliant on low-level wind convergence (from sea breeze and topographical effects), hence even within the broad SLGT there will be a good deal of dry weather still in many places with showers generally well-scattered and focussed over small areas - particularly near or just inland from coastal areas.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop, particularly from late morning and moreso through the afternoon and into the evening, capable of producing hail locally bigger than 1.5cm in diameter in any stronger cells. DLS is rather weak and hence showers/storms will generally be rather lacking in organisation, but slow storm motion will likely produce 10-15mm rain accumulations in just 1-2 hours, with elements of shower training also - and hence there is a risk of some local surface water flooding issues.

It is hard to ascertain any particular areas where showers/storms are most likely to occur, hence the broad SLGT, although most NWP are at least in agreement for north Devon and parts of East Anglia, along with Kent/Sussex and SE Wales. Coverage of showers/storms will gradually decrease through the evening hours as nocturnal cooling takes over. A few funnel clouds or a weak tornado are possible close to convergence zones.

[Mesoscale]

I found a live cam from Groningen.

http://www.groningencam.nl/

The storms not there yet but there are a strange number of people out on bikes at quarter past 12 on a Tuesday lol 

Edited April 12, 2016 by Mesoscale

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

5 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

I found a live cam from Groningen.

http://www.groningencam.nl/

The storms not there yet but there are a strange number of people out on bikes at quarter past 12 on a Tuesday lol 

Noticed that myself lol. Looking like they were having a midweek booze up! 

[Chrystal]

2 hours ago, Supacell said:

I am guessing here but I would say it is a mixture of wind convergence along with the last shreds of heat from the days heating. Now that the sun has gone down and the land is cooling I expect the showers and storms to decay, there are already signs of this with no lightning for about half an hour. I usually find that storms which have developed as a result of solar heating can hang on for a short while into the evening. 

Just as I post that reply there are two more strikes between Banbury and Northampton. I still expect the showers to fade now though. It's a pity as they just didn't quite reach Derby today.

Lol that's the strike that seemed to just come out of nowhere n caused the blue flash to come out the plug sockets. Didn't have a clue what had happened until I heard a massive boom of thunder and the power went out scared me to death 

[alexisj9]

13 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

I found a live cam from Groningen.

http://www.groningencam.nl/

The storms not there yet but there are a strange number of people out on bikes at quarter past 12 on a Tuesday lol 

Looks strange, you don't see that many people riding bikes during the day here, let alone after midnight. Shows how different the culture is. I wonder if it's one of those rent a bike schemes that some area's in the UK have, to ease travel congestion.

[alexisj9]

Can see flashing on cam now.

[toggerob]

Two apparent FCs caught in today's convection in central England.

 

[Gordon Webb]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Can see flashing on cam now.

for those who are unsure I expect that's the storm and not the bikers

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

for those who are unsure I expect that's the storm and not the bikers

You are correct of course, oops.

[Chrystal]

What's the difference between a funnel cloud and a tornado? 

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Chrystal said:

What's the difference between a funnel cloud and a tornado? 

A tornado is when it makes contact with the ground.

[Chrystal]

19 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A tornado is when it makes contact with the ground.

 

19 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A tornado is when it makes contact with the ground.

Thank you for clearing that up for me :-) so a funnel cloud has a potential to become a tornado at any point? 

[timeless]

l wonder why no ones been linking estofex forecasts recently? the warning area (at least when l last looked) wasnt so broad tomorrow as the forecast lm assuming was provided by conveciveweatheruk on facebook.

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2016041406_201604122116_1_stormforecast.xml

[Costa Del Fal]

Pretty hard to pin the detail down for where the focus of any storms will be today (Wednesday). Likely to be very much convergence zone driven again as per Tuesday. Therefore, pretty much exactly the same situation as Tuesday though personally I am expecting more sunshine especially over the Midlands/Wales where there was often high cloud in situ Tuesday.Unsurprisingly, all models offering slightly different opinions as to where the CZ's will set up. They are important in forcing the air up and brewing convection however so being under one will significantly help when moisture levels are otherwise fairly low. One exception maybe Cornwall where an approaching occlusion front should generate enough ascent to form more widespread showers than Tuesday -  the ICON model turns these thundery in particular. 

Back to those pesky convergence zones, with a disclaimer in place that this is once again a guesstimate, i reckon North Devon could be a sweet spot again along with areas around the M4 Corridor particularly around mid afternoon. RE: M4 Corridor, best chances towards the east so Reading/London and I think Sussex and West Kent could join in too. 

Towards late afternoon and evening, like today S Wales and the W Midlands could come in to play again too especially between the Brecon Beacons and Birmingham in my opinion. Ascent over the Brecons may be useful? The CZ here looks to run NE out of the Brecons then more W to E through the W Midlands region. A chance those in the E Midlands might see something too though a slightly lower risk here imo with less defined CZ's perhaps occurring here. This area like tonight could see showers lasting into the evening somewhat though storms decaying post 9pm approx again.

So all in all a similar set up with more sunshine and more showers I reckon though still many escaping with a lovely, fine day and wondering what all the fuss is about. Some photogenic cloudscapes likely so camera's at the ready.

Regardless, all showers and storms pretty slow moving and under any storms they could be dairly intense for a time with hail and a chance of localised surface water flooding. Higher precipitable water in the west may enhance this risk slightly here.

Just my two pence worth for Wednesday and I wish your location luck if it is thunderstorms you are after.

Edited April 12, 2016 by Costa Del Fal

[Ben Sainsbury]

7 hours ago, Chrystal said:

 

Thank you for clearing that up for me :-) so a funnel cloud has a potential to become a tornado at any point? 

That is right, as long as the conditions are right for the funnel to touch down.

[William Grimsley]

Another convective day today but the sky doesn't look as unstable as it did yesterday, I very much doubt I'll be chasing again today, it's quite a long way to drive all the way to North Devon and back for just for an afternoon, so I may just watch from here and see what happens. Good luck everyone!

EDIT: @Evening thunder may be able to go up again so may tag along with him and get some footage this time.

Edited April 13, 2016 by William Grimsley

[MP-R]

Given that Bristol didn't get anything yesterday, it would be jolly good if something popped up today. I haven't look at the wind maps but my impression from the BBC is that thunderstorms could pop up more widespread today than yesterday where they were very limited to certain areas.

Meanwhile, it's winter again outside - thick fog and 6C.

[Greeny]

Nice blue sky here this morning.

Edited April 13, 2016 by Greenday

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I'm starting off my day oop north near Leeds, but we'll be heading down to Oxford for and hour or two this afternoon before continuing back to Guildford.

If the the forecasts are to be believed I would be surprised if we don't intercept a stormy shower or two at some point...

Fingers crossed. Toes crossed. Legs crossed (at least until the service station )

[Gordon Webb]

looking at all the forecast for today nothing really bad looking anywhere no forecast of anything more then scattered showers and if you storm lovers catch a storm I'd consider you have done very well well as I think most will have a dry day which has it's downsides as I have a lawn that needs attention choices hope for a heavy showers or mow the lawn and the lawn has it